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Home / Economy / News / ADB keeps India's GDP growth projection for FY25
unchanged at 7%


ADB KEEPS INDIA'S GDP GROWTH PROJECTION FOR FY25 UNCHANGED AT 7%


PROJECTION MUST BE WEIGHED AGAINST 'DOWNSIDE RISKS FROM WEATHER EVENTS AND
GEOPOLITICAL SHOCKS', IT SAYS

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ADB said that the forward-looking services purchasing managers' index is well
above its long-term average.

Ruchika Chitravanshi New Delhi
4 min read Last Updated : Jul 17 2024 | 11:27 AM IST

India’s stronger-than-expected fiscal position could provide a further boost to
its growth, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said on Wednesday while keeping the
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth projection for the current financial year
(FY25) unchanged at 7 per cent.  

The Manila-based bank, however, said in its report that this must be “weighed
against downside risks” arising from weather events and geopolitical shocks.

India’s industrial sector is projected to see robust growth, driven by
manufacturing and strong demand in construction led by housing, it said in its
July Outlook. Agriculture is expected to rebound amid forecasts for an
above-normal monsoon, while investment demand remains strong, led by public
investment, it added.  
 


“Bank credit is fueling robust housing demand and improving private investment
demand. However, export growth will continue to be led by services, with
merchandise exports showing relatively weaker growth,” the bank said. 

The report said that forward-looking services PMI was well above its long-term
average. 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday raised India’s GDP growth
projection for FY25 by 20 basis points to 7 per cent in its update to the World
Economic Outlook (WEO), amid a boost to private consumption, especially in rural
areas.


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For FY26, ADB has maintained India’s GDP growth projection at 7.2 per cent, as
stated in its April Outlook. 


The GDP expanded at 8.2 per cent in FY24, higher than the 7 per cent recorded in
FY23, aided by a greater-than-expected expansion of 7.8 per cent in the fourth
quarter, according to the provisional estimates of GDP growth released by the
National Statistical Office (NSO).  

The Reserve Bank of India has projected the Indian economy to grow at 7.2 per
cent in FY25. RBI governor Shaktikanta Das said last month that India was at the
threshold of a “major structural shift” in its growth trajectory. He said the
country was moving towards a path where 8 per cent GDP growth could be sustained
yearly for a longer term.


ADB has slightly raised its economic growth forecast for developing Asia and the
Pacific for 2024 to 5 per cent from a previous projection of 4.9 per cent, as
rising regional exports complement resilient domestic demand. The growth outlook
for 2025 is maintained at 4.9 per cent.




ADB's GDP Growth Projection
              2023 2024   2025         April July April July   People's republic
of China 5.2 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.5   Hong Kong, China 3.2 2.8 2.8 3 3   India* 8.2 7 7
7.2 7.2   Singapore 1.1 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.6   Indonesia 5 5 5 5 5   Thailand 1.9 2.6
2.6 3 3                
*Year 2024 refers to FY2024-25 ending March 2025. 2025 refers to FY2025-26


         



ADB's GDP Growth Projection
              2023 2024   2025         April July April July   People's republic
of China 5.2 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.5   Hong Kong, China 3.2 2.8 2.8 3 3   India* 8.2 7 7
7.2 7.2   Singapore 1.1 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.6   Indonesia 5 5 5 5 5   Thailand 1.9 2.6
2.6 3 3                
*Year 2024 refers to FY2024-25 ending March 2025. 2025 refers to FY2025-26
         




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Topics : ADB Asian Development Bank GDP forecast India GDP India GDP growth GDP
growth

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First Published: Jul 17 2024 | 11:27 AM IST




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