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FACTA PRO FUTURA
See the Wood for the Trees 
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> Attempts to predict the future may be a waste of time,
> not trying to understand it is a waste of opportunity.

Marcus Tullius Cicero made a distinction between 'facta: what is accomplished
and can be taken as solid' and 'futura: what shall come into being, and is as
yet undone'.

The data we have are from the past. We don't have data from the future.

Strategic foresight can lead to a better understanding of the future, helping to
avoid risks and seize opportunities that the future holds.

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Horizon Scanning
Analyses & Information
Data
Geocalendar
Blog
Foresightionary

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WHY DO WE NEED STRATEGIC FORESIGHT (2)


Where is the boundary between success and failure?


Forecasts are depictions of the future based on existing data. They are based on
data we have available. The problem is that we do not have empirical data from
the future. Even more significant is that we often do not realize this fact. By
having certain assumptions about the future, we tend to perceive them as facts
and act accordingly. The frustration is all the greater when these expectations
are not met. The first step to avoiding mistakes is to recognize one of the
premises of strategic foresight: we only have empirical data from the past.
Predicting future events is therefore modeling the future based on the past.
It's like driving a car while looking in the rearview mirror. The problem may
arise at the first turn.

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DID YOU KNOW THAT...

... Decarbonization, the increasing energy demands of modern technologies, and
electromobility are leading to a comeback of nuclear energy worldwide. An
example in Europe is Poland, and in Asia, it is primarily China. This
corresponds to the assumptions of the International Atomic Energy Agency,
according to which the total energy consumption in the world should increase by
28% by 2050. However, the share of electricity in total consumption should grow
faster than other energy sources, and by 2050, electricity consumption should
double. Part of this process should also be the revitalisation of nuclear
energy. A significant increase in nuclear capacity has been envisaged by
International Energy Agency particularly in the 2030s. While the volume of
nuclear energy will also grow in developed countries, up to 90% of new nuclear
capacity is expected to be concentrated in China and developing countries. In a
net-zero scenario, the total volume of nuclear energy generated could double by
2050, and investments in nuclear energy could reach USD 100 billion annually.





STATISTICS OF THE WEEK

According to results of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute´s (ASPI)
project, which monitors research in 64 areas of critical technologies over the
past 21 years, China leads in 57 areas. In the remaining seven, the USA is in
the lead. Alongside traditional centers of technological research, India is
emerging as a new leader, having placed in the TOP-5 in 45 areas. If the EU were
considered as a whole, it would lead in two areas and rank second in 30 areas.

see more here






THE TERM OF THE WEEK 

Black Elephant - Known Knowns: This metaphor represents situations that we are
aware of and know well. Nevertheless, we (sometimes even deliberately) refuse to
accept them or we ignore them for various social, political, cultural, or
economic reasons. These are known or highly probable, high impact events that
lie beyond the realm of normal expectations an are thus ignored or not given
sufficient attention. This is a case of the "elephant in the room" - situations
where fears or prejudices outweigh active action. An individual, organization,
or even an entire society decides to ignore a known risk or opportunity.

see more here



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