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Welcome to the NWPS. If viewing on a mobile device, please try landscape mode. A
QUICK START GUIDE IS AVAILABLE and includes guidance on accessing the legacy
formatted hydrograph. Additional NWPS resources are available HERE


NATIONAL WATER PREDICTION SERVICE


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Sources: Esri, TomTom, Garmin, FAO, NOAA, USGS, © OpenStreetMap contributors,
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LAYERS

 * River Gauge
   Observations & Forecasts
   Long Range Flood Outlook
   
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   Major Flood
   2
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   4
   9
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   39
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NATIONAL WATER MODEL LAYER

Official NWS streamflow forecasts are produced by NWS hydrologic forecasters for
specific river gauge locations using hydrologic models that are calibrated to
that location. This process considers additional guidance and information from
other available sources, including local expertise and experience, to produce
the best forecast possible. This NWM layer provides access to National Water
Model streamflow guidance, available for approximately 2.7 million stream
reaches.

Use of the NWM Layer
The streamflow network on the NWM layer is shown in the color chosen when the
layer is enabled. As one zooms in, more of the network will be disclosed. At
river gauge locations where there is an official NWS gauge (denoted by a square
and/or circle marker), selecting the marker provides access to the official
hydrograph (“Official” tab) for that gauge and a supplemental hydrograph
(“National Water Model Guidance” tab) for the river reach that contains the
gauge. This supplemental “National Water Model Guidance” hydrograph displays the
NWM model output in addition to the official hydrograph. Selecting a section of
river with no gauge marker (no official forecast) will provide the NWM guidance
hydrograph for that river section.

The NWM is currently undergoing extensive validation and verification to
identify where scientific updates to the model can make the most improvement,
and new versions are planned for release on a regular basis. The NWM output
provides supplemental guidance to NWS forecasters and should not be considered
an official NWS river forecast.

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FLOOD INUNDATION LAYERS (EXPERIMENTAL)

These services are considered experimental and are undergoing testing for an
area that covers 10% of the U.S. population. Testing of these experimental
services will expand to cover 30% of the U.S. population in September 2024 and
then 60% of the U.S. population in September 2025.

The experimental flood inundation maps represent the National Weather Service's
best approximation of inundation extent based upon modeled river discharge.
These maps are derived from the official River Forecast Center forecasts and
National Water Model analyses and forecast guidance. Flood inundation maps will
display upon zooming in where river flow information depicts flooding or flow
exceeds regionally derived high water thresholds.

Please visit https://www.weather.gov/owp/operations for more information about
the experimental National Water Center Visualization services and the
experimental Flood Inundation Mapping services. Services can be accessed
directly by visiting https://maps.water.noaa.gov/server.

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HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION

EXPERIMENTAL

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Comments? Questions? Please Contact nwps.webmaster@noaa.gov.


EXPERIMENTAL: AREA HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION 18. SEPTEMBER 2024



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EXPERIMENTAL: NATIONAL HYDROMET DISCUSSION 17. SEPTEMBER 2024

National Hydromet Discussion 17. September 2024National Hydromet Discussion 16.
September 2024National Hydromet Discussion 15. September 2024National Hydromet
Discussion 14. September 2024National Hydromet Discussion 13. September
2024National Hydromet Discussion 12. September 2024National Hydromet Discussion
11. September 2024




000
AGUS74 KWCO 171543
HMDNWC

National Hydrologic Discussion - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa AL
1015 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2024

.Synopsis...
Flooding potential continues across North Carolina and Virginia...Flash
flooding potential across the Intermountain West...Convective rainfall
expected over the Central Plains this weekend...Coastal flooding impacts
along the Mid-Atlantic Coast...

.Discussion...

.North Carolina and Virginia...
An area of low pressure over the southern Appalachians will continue to
produce areas of moderate to heavy rainfall across portions of the Blue
Ridge Mountains, northern NC and southern VA through Wed night (day 2),
potentially generating additional flash, urban, and isolated river
flooding. Soils across the Blue Ridge and northern NC have increased in
wetness over the past 24 hours (60 - 90% RSM, 0 - 10 cm NASA SPoRT) in
response to 1 - 3" of rainfall. Additional rainfall of 1 - 3" across this
region may locally overwhelm infiltration capacity, leading to runoff into
nearby streams and creeks and drainage in urban areas. Localized training
convection is also possible, which may lead to rapid stream rises along
streams draining the Blue Ridge. Further north in VA, antecedent conditions
are much drier in comparison with below normal streamflows (USGS) and dry
soils in place (20 - 40% RSM, 0 - 10 cm NASA SPoRT) which should mitigate
the majority of the impacts. However, isolated urban and small stream
flooding impacts are possible near the immediate coast and in urban areas
such as Virginia Beach, Norfolk, and Richmond, especially if more robust
rainfall rates were to occur. River flooding is not expected here, but
modest river rises are possible where heavier rainfall totals materialize.

For today, the HRRR-forced National Water Model (NWM) is indicating
isolated to scattered small stream responses across northern NC and
portions of southern VA, with peak flows expected this evening.
Corresponding annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs), per the High Flow
Magnitude Forecast, indicates the potential for locally significant small
stream rises, as isolated AEPs as low as 2% are noted north of
Raleigh-Durham, near the VA/NC state line, and along the immediate coast of
the Outer Banks. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is expected
along portions of the Neuse (NC) and Cape Fear (NC) rivers, with crests
expected beginning on day 2 (Wed).

.Intermountain West...
Slow-moving showers and storms with locally robust rainfall rates may
elicit flash and small stream flooding across portions of central ID
through tonight and portions of western and central MT through day 2 (Wed).
While dry antecedent conditions ahead of this rainfall should generally
mitigate widespread small stream responses, the high potential for training
and slow-moving convection increases the susceptibility to flooding.
Impacts such as rapid stream rises in complex terrain, debris flows near
recently burned areas, and urban/poor-drainage flooding is possible. Both
the GFS and NBM-forced NWM indicate isolated small stream responses across
central MT, with peak flows expected on days 2 - 3 (Wed - Thu).
Corresponding AEPs increases confidence in the potential for locally
significant rapid stream rises in complex terrain, as AEPs as low as 4% are
noted along small streams draining higher terrain between Havre and
Billings.

.Central Plains...
A frontal system forecast to sweep across the region later this week may
bring potentially heavy rainfall (totals up to 3") on day 5 (Sat). Ahead of
this rainfall, antecedent conditions are dry, particularly across KS and
NE, where abnormally dry to severe drought conditions are in place (USDM).
This rainfall is expected to be beneficial, with little to no hydrologic
responses expected. However, isolated areas of lowland flooding cannot be
ruled out in areas of heavier rainfall.

.Mid-Atlantic...
Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible through early day 2 (Wed)
from Chesapeake Bay to Long Island Sound due to astronomical high tides and
continued onshore flow. Check with your local NWS office for more
information related to coastal flooding impacts.

//Pritchard

$$



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