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[#OOI_PERSONAL_INFORMATION#] Deny Allow selection Customize Allow all Powered by Cookiebot by Usercentrics(link is external) Skip to main content Capital Economics Open menu Close menu * Key Issues * Europe's Energy Crisis * Brazil Votes 2022 * The World with Higher Interest Rates * The Rebirth of Inflation * Russia-Ukraine: The Economic and Market Consequences * The Golden Age for Emerging Markets Is Over * Global * Asset Allocation * Capital Daily * Emerging Markets * FX Markets * Global Economics * Global Markets * The Long Run * Country & Regional * Africa * Australia & New Zealand * Canada * China * Emerging Asia * Emerging Europe * Euro-zone * India * Japan * Latin America * Middle East * Nordic & Swiss * UK * UK Markets * US * Commodities * Commodities Overview * Energy * Metals * Property * Europe Commercial Property * UK Commercial Property * UK Housing * US Commercial Property * US Housing * Resources * Forecast Hub * Central Bank Hub * Capital Calls * Capital Views * Events and Webinars * Sign in * Key Issues * Europe's Energy Crisis * Brazil Votes 2022 * The World with Higher Interest Rates * The Rebirth of Inflation * Russia-Ukraine: The Economic and Market Consequences * The Golden Age for Emerging Markets Is Over FEATURED ITEMS FROM KEY ISSUES * CAN THE WORLD COPE WITH HIGHER INTEREST RATES? We expect the most aggressive policy tightening cycle in decades to cause a slowdown in global economic growth, not a severe downturn. The biggest risk is that inflation stays higher for much longer than we anticipate, causing central banks to raise interest rates well beyond neutral levels to quash it. We judge that an extra ~100bp of hikes beyond our forecasts might be enough to cause downside risks to crystallise. 1st June 2022 * RUSSIA’S ECONOMY IS WOUNDED, NOT SCREAMING IN PAIN Western sanctions have caused activity in certain sectors of Russia’s economy to collapse, but activity has held up reasonably well in key areas such as oil production and less import-dependent manufacturing. What’s clear, though, is that the full effect of sanctions will take years to feed through. This underpins our view that sanctions have severely reduced Russia’s medium-term growth potential. EM Drop-In (4th August, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our monthly online session on the big issues in emerging markets. In this 20-minute briefing, the team will be answering your questions about debt risks amid global tightening, the latest on the inflation outlook and much more. Register now. 3rd August 2022 View all posts → * Global * Asset Allocation * Capital Daily * Emerging Markets * FX Markets * Global Economics * Global Markets * The Long Run * Asset Allocation * Capital Daily * Emerging Markets * FX Markets * Global Economics * Global Markets * The Long Run FEATURED ITEMS FROM GLOBAL * WEIGHING UP THE RELATIVE PROSPECTS FOR STOCK MARKET SECTORS We think the macroeconomic backdrop that we envisage is consistent with certain “defensive” sectors of the S&P 500 – utilities, healthcare and consumer staples – outperforming over the rest of this year. 17th August 2022 * PRIVATE SECTOR WELL PLACED FOR HIGHER RATES IN MAJOR DMS In addition to revealing that higher interest rates had barely affected household and corporate finances, national accounts data for Q1 suggested that, with the exception of households in a handful of medium-sized economies, private sectors are generally well placed to cope when debt service costs rise. 19th August 2022 * Country & Regional * Africa * Australia & New Zealand * Canada * China * Emerging Asia * Emerging Europe * Euro-zone * India * Japan * Latin America * Middle East * Nordic & Swiss * UK * UK Markets * US * Africa * Australia & New Zealand * Canada * China * Emerging Asia * Emerging Europe * Euro-zone * India * Japan * Latin America * Middle East * Nordic & Swiss * UK * UK Markets * US FEATURED ITEMS FROM COUNTRY & REGIONAL * IS THERE REALLY SUCH THING AS A ‘JOBFUL’ RECESSION? While history shows that recessions can begin even while employment is still rising, the current rate of payroll employment growth is far too strong to be consistent with an economic downturn. By the same token, although we think an outright contraction will be avoided, any recession over the next couple of years would almost certainly coincide with a decline in employment and rise in the unemployment rate. 11th August 2022 * Commodities * Commodities Overview * Energy * Metals * Commodities Overview * Energy * Metals FEATURED ITEMS FROM COMMODITIES * WE’RE LESS UPBEAT ABOUT OPEC OIL SUPPLY Concerns about the demand outlook have dragged the Brent crude oil price towards $90 per barrel this week. But, the supply-side concerns which pushed the price over $120 per barrel not too long ago haven’t entirely vanished. Indeed, following the OPEC+ meeting this week, we are now less upbeat on supply. Oil and the Gulf Drop-In (9th Aug): What’s the outlook for oil prices and what does that mean for Gulf economic outperformance? Join economists from our Commodities and Emerging Markets teams for this 20-minute briefing. Register now. 5th August 2022 * GLOOMY OUTLOOK FOR USE OF AGRICULTURALS IN INDUSTRY Deteriorating global economic growth over the coming quarters will weigh on industrial demand for cotton, natural rubber and lumber. That said, high oil prices will offer some support to cotton and natural rubber prices, and our expectation for rate cuts in the US in late 2023 could boost the price of US lumber. 10th August 2022 * Property * Europe Commercial Property * UK Commercial Property * UK Housing * US Commercial Property * US Housing * Europe Commercial Property * UK Commercial Property * UK Housing * US Commercial Property * US Housing FEATURED ITEMS FROM PROPERTY * THE SIX MAJOR MARKETS WILL NOT BE THE ONLY LOSERS Pandemic-accelerated migration patterns were already driving outperformance in the southern states. But they have also brought the poor performance of weaker markets to the fore. With those structural changes likely to continue to play out over the next few years, we expect metros such as Detroit, Indianapolis and Minneapolis to underperform in the coming years. 10th August 2022 * GLOBAL TRENDS POINT TO A MORE DIFFICULT DECADE AHEAD Commercial property wasn’t initially hit by the worsening in economic conditions at the turn of the year, but there are now growing signs of anxiety. Not only that, but even if the economic gloom is short lived and any downturn is mild, we expect structural factors to make for a listless global real estate recovery. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this UK Commercial Property Update to clients of our European and US Commercial Property Services. 12th August 2022 * Resources * Forecast Hub * Central Bank Hub * Capital Calls * Capital Views * Events and Webinars Log in Breadcrumb 1. Home 2. US Economics 3. US Data Response 4. Retail Sales (Aug.) RETAIL SALES (AUG.) Andrew Hunter Senior US Economist 15th September 2022 The stagnation in underlying retail sales in August suggests that plunging gasoline prices are not providing any significant boost to real consumption. But that could change over the coming months as consumer confidence recovers and, for now, the data are still consistent with a rebound in GDP in the third quarter. BECOME A MEMBER TO READ MORE This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view. ALREADY A MEMBER? You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription. Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it Sign in REGISTER FOR FREE Sign up for a free account to gain: * Unlock additional content * Register for Capital Economics events * Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters * Request a free trial of our services Get access DETAILS READ MORE ABOUT * Consumer Spending READ MORE ABOUT * Consumer Spending RELATED ARTICLES US Data Response CONSUMER PRICES (AUG.) The 0.6% m/m increase in core consumer prices in August, double the consensus expectation, confirms that the Fed will hike its policy rate by at least 75bp next week. Nevertheless, that outsized... 13th September 2022 · 2 mins read US Data Response EMPLOYMENT REPORT (AUG.) The slower pace of payroll gains in August, together with the big rebound in the labour force, and the more modest increase in wages, would seem to favour a smaller 50bp rate hike from the Fed next... 2nd September 2022 · 2 mins read UK Data Response RETAIL SALES (AUG.) The weakness in August’s retail sales volumes figures suggests that the downward momentum is gathering speed and supports our view that the economy in already in a recession. But that won’t stop the... 16th September 2022 · 3 mins read US Data Response ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX (AUG.) The stabilisation in the ISM manufacturing index at 52.8 in August, unchanged from July, provides some further reassurance that the economy is not yet sliding into recession. While the details suggest... 1st September 2022 · 2 mins read UPCOMING EVENTS MARKETS DROP-IN: THE CASE FOR THE END OF US EQUITY OUTPERFORMANCE 22nd September 2022 FOOTER Email business@capitaleconomics.com Phone Number +44 (0)20 7823 5000 Capital Economics Ltd 5th Floor, 100 Victoria Street Cardinal Place London FOOTER MENU SERVICES 1. Subscriptions 2. Consultancy 3. CE Interactive INSIGHTS 1. Capital Views 2. Capital Calls 3. In The News 4. Upcoming Events POLICIES 1. Privacy 2. Terms of Sale 3. Terms of Use ABOUT US 1. 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