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Inflation Victory Is Proving Elusive, Challenging Central Banks and Markets


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https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/inflation-victory-is-proving-elusive-challenging-central-banks-and-markets-cef0d601

 1. Economy
    
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 2. Global
    
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 3. The Outlook


INFLATION VICTORY IS PROVING ELUSIVE, CHALLENGING CENTRAL BANKS AND MARKETS


IN THE U.S. AND EUROPE, UNDERLYING INFLATION HAS STOPPED FALLING OR EDGED HIGHER
RECENTLY, WEAKENING THE CASE FOR RATE CUTS

By

Tom Fairless


March 31, 2024 10:00 am ET

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The U.S. economy—by many measures—is doing great. But many voters think
otherwise. Here’s what the data say about why voters feel so bad about the
economy and what it could mean for Biden in the 2024 election.

Inflation is proving stickier than expected in the U.S. and Europe, creating a
headache for central bankers and sowing doubts on whether investors are too
optimistic about the world economy.

The decline in inflation from highs of around 9% to 10% across advanced
economies in 2022 represent the easy gains, as supply-chain blockages eased and
commodity prices, especially for energy, normalized.

The “last mile” is proving tougher. Underlying inflation, which excludes
volatile food and energy prices, slowed to 3% in the second half of last year
across advanced economies but has since moved up to 3.5%, according to JP Morgan
estimates.

That is forcing investors to rethink bets that inflation would steadily decline
to central banks’ targets, generally around 2%. There are even concerns it could
surge again, mirroring the second wave that characterized the high inflation of
the 1970s.



Economists’ and central banks’ forecasts of sustained falling inflation depend
on “strong gravitational forces that are not yet validated in global labor
costs, short-term expectations, or in recent signals from commodity markets,” JP
Morgan wrote in a note. Services inflation remains elevated while goods prices,
which had fallen last year, are now moving higher, it noted.


WAITING ON THE LAST MILE

Central bankers say they expected the last mile of falling inflation to be
bumpy. Yet they are also signaling their willingness to wait before cutting
interest rates. Fewer, or no, rate cuts would have sweeping repercussions for
the global economy and markets, whose recent rally began after a narrow majority
of Federal Reserve officials recently reaffirmed projections to cut interest
rates three times this year.

On Friday, the U.S. Commerce Department reported that the price index of
personal-consumption expenditures, the Fed’s preferred indicator of inflation,
rose a relatively tame 2.5% in the 12 months through February, up modestly from
2.4% in January. Beneath the surface, the trend was less comforting. The
index excluding food and energy climbed by 3.5% on an annualized basis in the
three months through February, up from around 2% late last year.  

“These shorter-term inflation measures are now telling me that progress has
slowed and may have stalled,” Fed governor Christopher Waller said in a speech
Thursday, before the latest inflation data.

“In my view, it is appropriate to reduce the overall number of rate cuts or push
them further into the future,” Waller said.


Underlying inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, has remained sticky
in advanced economies. Photo: Marc Asensio/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a more balanced note Friday, saying inflation is
on a sometimes bumpy path toward 2%, and strong economic growth allows
policymakers to wait. “Is progress on inflation going to slow for more than two
months?…We’re just going to have to let the data tell us that,” Powell said in
an interview at the San Francisco Fed.

Joachim Nagel, president of Germany’s Bundesbank and a member of the European
Central Bank’s rate-setting committee said in late February that underlying
inflation in the eurozone was still 2 percentage points higher than its 1999 to
2019 average.

“If we reduce interest rates too early or too sharply, we run the risk of
missing our target,” and might need to raise interest rates again, he said. He
highlighted a recent International Monetary Fund report that found four out of
every 10 inflation shocks since the 1970s had yet to be overcome even after five
years. 

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In Italy, underlying inflation climbed to 2.4% in March from 2.3% the previous
month, according to data published Friday. French headline inflation cooled to
2.3% in March, but services prices remained sticky, rising by 3% from a year
earlier.


Eurozone services-price inflation has been running at a 4% annual rate since
November. Photo: jon nazca/Reuters

Why is inflation proving stubborn? 

Despite the sharp interest-rate increases of the past two years, economic growth
is resilient, especially in the U.S. The Atlanta Fed said Friday its real-time
indicator of first quarter U.S. economic growth ticked up to 2.3% from 2.1%.
Consumer spending, adjusted for inflation, increased by around 5% on an annual
basis in February, the Commerce Department said.

“The unexpected strength of real consumption” means “there is still no rush to
cut interest rates,” said Paul Ashworth, an economist with Capital Economics.

While Europe’s growth has stalled since late 2022, recent business surveys
suggest the outlook is brightening. Meanwhile, job creation has been strong on
both sides of the Atlantic, and wage growth remains high, partly reflecting
tight labor markets. Wages are an important input to services-price inflation in
the eurozone, which has been running at a 4% annual rate since November.

March inflation data for the entire eurozone will be published on Wednesday. ECB
officials have indicated they could start to cut interest rates in June from the
current 4% level, while the subsequent pace of cuts after that is unclear.


CENTRAL BANKS MAY BE PART OF THE PROBLEM

Central banks themselves may be inadvertently adding to inflation pressure. By
signaling a pivot toward interest-rate cuts last fall, they pushed global
borrowing costs down and asset prices up, supporting spending. 

Some factors favor inflation declining further. In both the U.S. and Europe, a
surge of immigration could help keep a lid on wage increases. 

The U.S.—but not Europe—is also seeing big increases in productivity, that is
output per worker, which helps to offset high wage growth. It is unclear,
however, how long that will last. The pandemic might have changed how Americans
work and use technology, but “once we have made those changes, they’re done, so
I don’t see this as a driver of sustained productivity growth,” the Fed’s Waller
said.

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

When do you think inflation will be brought under control on a global level?
Join the conversation below.

Meanwhile, oil prices have risen recently, which could push up headline
inflation.  

To offset a slumping property market, China has dramatically boosted
manufacturing capacity and exports, which have weighed on global goods
inflation. But its export prices have recently started to increase, according to
JP Morgan.

If central banks react to stubborn inflation by backing away from rate cuts,
that would put pressure on both heavily indebted governments and employers. That
could test central banks’ will to finish the last mile and push inflation all
the way to target.

Higher government spending on defense and green energy, and geopolitical
tensions that crimp global trade, are likely to pressure central banks to
tolerate higher inflation over the coming years, according to a Brookings
Institution paper published in March. 

“A strengthening of central bank independence combined with a more credible
public debt policy is likely needed,” said the paper, by economist Kenneth
Rogoff of Harvard University and three co-authors.

Write to Tom Fairless at tom.fairless@wsj.com


INFLATION AND THE ECONOMY

Analysis from The Wall Street Journal, selected by the editors

Get WSJ's Economics Newsletter
Fed Officials Still See Three Rate Cuts This Year
We Still Don’t Believe How Much Things Cost
Inflation Picks Up to 3.2%, Slightly Hotter Than Expected
What Recession? 2023 Growth Ended Up Accelerating

Copyright ©2024 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

Appeared in the April 1, 2024, print edition as 'Last Leg of Inflation Fight Not
Won Yet'.

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