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Ethiopia in Troubled Waters
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from Africa in Transition and Africa Program
ETHIOPIA IN TROUBLED WATERS
Ethiopia has struggled to recover from the fallout of the Tigray conflict, with
few signs of improvement for 2024.
Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Army Chief of General Staff, Birhanu
Jula, watch a military parade during the 116th celebration of the Ethiopian
Defense Force in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia on October 26, 2023. REUTERS/Tiksa Negeri
Blog Post by Michelle Gavin
December 28, 2023 1:07 pm (EST)
Print Email
A year ago, the world was celebrating the signing of agreements to end the
brutal war waged in Ethiopia’s Tigray region from late 2020 through
2022. Leaders and analysts were turning their focus to economic and social
recovery for the vast nation in the Horn of Africa, assessing the reconfigured
regional security dynamics, and rebuilding frayed relationships with Prime
Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government. There was much talk of getting “back on
track.”
Unfortunately, as 2023 comes to a close, it’s clear that this track is not
leading anywhere good. As expected, this week Ethiopia went into
default. Although the country’s relatively low debt to GDP ratio has economists
and officials predicting a rapid agreement between the government and its
creditors, there are other factors that may give optimists pause about
Ethiopia’s economic trajectory. Foreign investors are questioning the
consistency of the regulatory environment and the government’s commitment to
allowing competition. Staff of the African Development Bank (AfDB) were
assaulted and detained by Ethiopian authorities on October 31, leading the AfDB
to withdraw its international staff from the country. The circumstances
surrounding the incident are unclear, but journalists in the region have been
following leads that suggest malfeasance in the Ministry of Finance may be
involved. Diminishing trust in the Ethiopian government has been something of a
theme in 2023. For much of the year, food aid from the World Food Program and
the United States was suspended despite the country’s vast needs. Donors had
found that such assistance was being systematically diverted and it took months
to agree on reforms that restored sufficient confidence to resume food aid,
albeit on a trial basis.
More on:
Ethiopia
Political Transitions
Sovereign Debt
East Africa
If reasons for optimism have been hard to find on the economic governance and
humanitarian fronts, they have been even more difficult on the security front.
The end of the conflict in Tigray was a tremendously important and positive
development, and despite outstanding issues in the implementation of the
cessation of hostility agreement, that peace has held. But the fracturing of
Prime Minister Abiy’s wartime coalition has led to ongoing fighting in Amhara,
which has now joined the conflict in Oromo as a seemingly intractable source of
instability. It has also led to tension with erstwhile partner Eritrea. Perhaps
seeking to rally political elites around a new crisis, Abiy’s decision to focus
attention and emotion on Ethiopia’s desire for access to the sea (the country is
landlocked and largely relies on Djibouti’s port for external trade) has been
understood as a threat to his neighbors. The latest talks between Ethiopia and
Egypt regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and rights to Nile water
failed, prompting Egypt’s Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation to talks
aiming to remind the world that his country reserves the right to “defend its
water and national security.” Security threats in and around the Red Sea are
already imposing real costs on global shipping. Bellicose rhetoric around
hot-button issues involving Ethiopia only adds uncertainty to the existing
turbulent environment.
AFRICA IN TRANSITION
Michelle Gavin, Ebenezer Obadare, and other experts track political and security
developments across sub-Saharan Africa. Most weekdays.
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The United States would very much like to see a secure, prosperous Ethiopia at
peace with itself and its neighbors. Fragility in a country 120-million strong
and in the strategically sensitive Horn of Africa is remarkably risky. But it’s
very hard to convince oneself that Ethiopia is on a positive trajectory, and
impossible not to see the multiple red flags warning of more trouble ahead.
More on:
Ethiopia
Political Transitions
Sovereign Debt
East Africa
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