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Home Supply Management News & Reports ISM Reports ISM Report On Business® PMI
April
MANUFACTURING PMI® AT 49.2%
APRIL 2024 MANUFACTURING ISM® REPORT ON BUSINESS®
NEW ORDERS AND BACKLOGS CONTRACTING
PRODUCTION GROWING; EMPLOYMENT CONTRACTING
SUPPLIER DELIVERIES FASTER
RAW MATERIALS INVENTORIES CONTRACTING; CUSTOMERS’ INVENTORIES TOO LOW
PRICES INCREASING; EXPORTS CONTRACTING; IMPORTS GROWING
(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in
April after one month of expansion following 16 consecutive months of
contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM®
Report On Business®.
The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the
Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:
“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 49.2 percent in April, down 1.1 percentage
points from the 50.3 percent recorded in March. The overall economy continued in
expansion for the 48th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A
Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally
indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index moved back
into contraction territory after one month of expansion, registering 49.1
percent, 2.3 percentage points lower than the 51.4 percent recorded in March.
The April reading of the Production Index (51.3 percent) is 3.3 percentage
points lower than March’s figure of 54.6 percent. The Prices Index registered
60.9 percent, up 5.1 percentage points compared to the reading of 55.8 percent
in March. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 45.4 percent, down 0.9
percentage point compared to the 46.3 percent recorded in March. The Employment
Index registered 48.6 percent, up 1.2 percentage points from March’s figure of
47.4 percent.
“The Supplier Deliveries Index figure of 48.9 percent is 1 percentage point
lower than the 49.9 percent recorded in March. (Supplier Deliveries is the only
ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent
indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and
customer demand increases.) The Inventories Index registered 48.2 percent, the
same reading as in March.
“The New Export Orders Index reading of 48.7 percent is 2.9 percentage points
lower than the 51.6 percent registered in March. The Imports Index continued in
expansion territory, registering 51.9 percent, 1.1 percentage points lower than
the 53 percent reported in March and February. In the last three months, the
Imports Index has been at its highest levels since July 2022 (54.4 percent).”
Fiore continues, “The U.S. manufacturing sector dropped back into contraction
after growing in March, the first time since September 2022 that the sector
reported expansion. Although demand improvement slowed, output remains positive
and inputs stayed accommodative. Demand softening was reflected by the (1) New
Orders Index dropping back into contraction, offset by fewer comments regarding
‘softening,’ (2) New Export Orders Index indicating contraction after two months
of expansion, offset by panelists’ more optimistic comments, (3) Backlog of
Orders Index remaining in moderate contraction territory, dropping back slightly
compared to March, and (4) Customers’ Inventories Index at the ‘just right’
level, neutral for future production. Output (measured by the Production and
Employment indexes) moderated compared to March, with a combined 2.1-percentage
point downward impact on the Manufacturing PMI® calculation. Panelists’
companies slightly increased their production levels month over month, and
head-count reductions continued (but showed signs of easing) in April. Inputs —
defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports — continued to
accommodate future demand growth. The Supplier Deliveries Index dropped
marginally, continuing in ‘faster’ territory, and the Inventories Index was flat
(the same reading as in March) and in slight contraction territory. The Prices
Index moved further upward into strong expansion (or ‘increasing’) territory, as
commodity driven costs continue to climb. Imports continued to grow, at a slower
rate in April.
“Demand remains at the early stages of recovery, with continuing signs of
improving conditions. Production execution continued to expand in March, but at
a slower rate of growth than in prior months. Suppliers continue to have
capacity but work to improve lead times, due to their raw material supply chain
disruptions. Thirty-four percent of manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP)
contracted in April, up from 30 percent in March. More importantly, the share of
sector GDP registering a composite PMI® calculation at or below 45 percent — a
good barometer of overall manufacturing weakness — was 4 percent in April,
higher than the 1-percent figure in March, but an indication of better health
than the 27 percent recorded in January. Among the top six industries by
contribution to manufacturing GDP in April, none had a PMI® at or below 45
percent,” says Fiore.
The nine manufacturing industries reporting growth in April — in order — are:
Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Primary
Metals; Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Petroleum
& Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; and Plastics &
Rubber Products. The seven industries reporting contraction in April — in the
following order — are: Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; Furniture &
Related Products; Wood Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Fabricated
Metal Products; and Paper Products.
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING
* “Conditions are improving as demand is starting to recover. Costs continue to
be a major concern as suppliers that rapidly increased prices in the
follow-up from COVID-19 are slow to return to pre-pandemic levels.” [Chemical
Products]
* “Sales continue to exceed expectations in 2024. The forecasted dip in
commercial vehicle production volumes appears to be avoided. Operational
output is still strong, and the supply chain has the capacity to support.
International supply chain risks have been minimized, but the frequency of
supplier insolvencies or bankruptcies appears to be increasing.”
[Transportation Equipment]
* “Order flow has stabilized. It took some customers longer to replenish their
supply chain network after the fourth-quarter rush we commonly have. Order
rates are expected to remain stable through August.” [Food, Beverage &
Tobacco Products]
* “Some small indications of market improvement in China for our instruments
and technology. Recovery is still slower than we had hoped, and macroeconomic
uncertainty remains in Europe and the Middle East, as well as domestically in
the U.S. with ongoing inflationary pressures and anticipation for the
(upcoming) election.” [Computer & Electronic Products]
* “Market conditions have definitely softened. Thankfully, our backlog is
strong and will get us through the year. When conditions improve as expected
later this year, we will be in a good position to continue building the
business. We are a manufacturer of automated packaging equipment for the food
and beverage industry, and with a continued shortage of workers, our
customers are requiring more and more automation.” [Machinery]
* “Business is slowing down — it has been a gradual decline for the last
several months. We are not seeing new orders at last year’s level, or at this
year’s budgeted levels.” [Fabricated Metal Products]
* “There has been a lot of volatility in sales. On average, our sales look
flat, but the volatility is concerning.” [Electrical Equipment, Appliances &
Components]
* “Business remained strong through the first quarter and has started strong
for the second quarter. Commercial construction is still going well but on a
regional basis, with the Southeast the strongest.” [Nonmetallic Mineral
Products]
* “The major factor affecting our business is the uncertainty of the Federal
Reserve’s handling of interest rates, which will affect our customers’
businesses, thereby affecting ours.” [Plastics & Rubber Products]
* “Business is stable, and orders have been consistent. We’re quoting new
business for the factory, and automotive builds continue at averages but not
near maximum outputs. Workforce is stable, with the turnover ratio dropping
considerably. Salaries and hourly rates increasing to meet inflationary
pressures.” [Primary Metals]
MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
APRIL 2024
Index Series Index Apr Series Index Mar Percentage Point Change Direction Rate
of Change Trend* (Months) Manufacturing PMI® 49.2 50.3 -1.1 Contracting From
Growing 1 New Orders 49.1 51.4 -2.3 Contracting From Growing 1 Production 51.3
54.6 -3.3 Growing Slower 2 Employment 48.6 47.4 +1.2 Contracting Slower 7
Supplier Deliveries 48.9 49.9 -1.0 Faster Faster 2 Inventories 48.2 48.2 0.0
Contracting Same 15 Customers’ Inventories 47.8 44.0 +3.8 Too Low Slower 5
Prices 60.9 55.8 +5.1 Increasing Faster 4 Backlog of Orders 45.4 46.3 -0.9
Contracting Faster 19 New Export Orders 48.7 51.6 -2.9 Contracting From Growing
1 Imports 51.9 53.0 -1.1 Growing Slower 4 OVERALL ECONOMY Growing Slower 48
Manufacturing Sector Contracting From Growing 1
MANUFACTURING ISM® REPORT ON BUSINESS® DATA IS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED FOR THE NEW
ORDERS, PRODUCTION, EMPLOYMENT AND INVENTORIES INDEXES.
*NUMBER OF MONTHS MOVING IN CURRENT DIRECTION.
COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY
COMMODITIES UP IN PRICE
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aluminum (5); Copper; Corrugated Boxes (2); Corrugated Sheets (2); Crude Oil
(2); Diesel; Gasoline (2); High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) Resin; Plastic
Resins (4); Polypropylene (7); Precious Metals; Solvents; Steel (10); Steel —
Carbon*; Steel — Hot Rolled; Steel Products; Titanium Dioxide; and Zinc.
COMMODITIES DOWN IN PRICE
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Steel — Carbon*.
COMMODITIES IN SHORT SUPPLY
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Electrical Components (43); Electrical Equipment (3); Electronic Components; and
Labor — Temporary.
Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated
after each item.
*Indicates both up and down in price.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
APRIL 2024 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MANUFACTURING PMI®
The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted in April, as the Manufacturing PMI®
registered 49.2 percent, down 1.1 percentage points compared to March’s reading
of 50.3 percent. “After breaking a 16-month streak of contraction with an
expansion in March, the manufacturing sector dropped back into contraction. Only
one out of five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI® is
in expansion territory, down from two in March. The New Orders Index moved back
into contraction after one month of expansion. Of the six biggest manufacturing
industries, two (Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products) registered
growth in April,” says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the
manufacturing sector is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it
is generally contracting.
A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally
indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the April
Manufacturing PMI® indicates the overall economy grew for the 48th straight
month after one month of contraction (April 2020). “The past relationship
between the Manufacturing PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the April
reading (49.2 percent) corresponds to a change of plus-1.9 percent in real gross
domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,” says Fiore.
THE LAST 12 MONTHS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Month Manufacturing PMI® Apr 2024 49.2 Mar 2024 50.3 Feb 2024 47.8 Jan 2024 49.1
Dec 2023 47.1 Nov 2023 46.6
Month Manufacturing PMI® Oct 2023 46.9 Sep 2023 48.6 Aug 2023 47.6 Jul 2023 46.5
Jun 2023 46.4 May 2023 46.6
Average for 12 months - 47.7
High - 50.3
Low - 46.4
NEW ORDERS
ISM®’s New Orders Index moved back into contraction in April, registering 49.1
percent, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points compared to March’s reading of 51.4
percent. The New Orders Index hasn’t indicated consistent growth since a
24-month streak of expansion ended in May 2022. “Of the six largest
manufacturing sectors, three (Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products;
and Fabricated Metal Products) reported increased new orders. Panelists
indicated continuing improvement in demand, with comments of ‘softening’ new
orders at their lowest level since the special reporting of such sentiment began
in May 2022,” says Fiore. A New Orders Index above 52.3 percent, over time, is
generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on
manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).
The eight manufacturing industries that reported growth in new orders in April —
in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Nonmetallic
Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Paper Products; Primary Metals;
Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; and Fabricated Metal
Products. The five industries reporting a decline in new orders in April are:
Textile Mills; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Electrical
Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.
New Orders % Higher % Same % Lower Net Index Apr 2024 19.9 63.2 16.9 +3.0 49.1
Mar 2024 26.1 57.7 16.2 +9.9 51.4 Feb 2024 24.4 58.2 17.4 +7.0 49.2 Jan 2024
20.2 56.3 23.5 -3.3 52.5
PRODUCTION
The Production Index pulled back but remained in expansion territory in April,
registering 51.3 percent, 3.3 percentage points lower than the March reading of
54.6 percent. The Production Index had been in contraction for 11 of the
previous 16 months. Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, four
(Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products;
and Fabricated Metal Products) reported increased production. “Panelists’
companies marginally improved output levels compared to March,” says Fiore. An
index above 52.2 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in
the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.
The eight industries reporting growth in production during the month of April,
in order, are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Petroleum & Coal Products;
Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products;
Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components;
and Fabricated Metal Products. The three industries reporting a decrease in
production in April are: Wood Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and
Machinery. Seven industries reported no change in production in April.
Production % Higher % Same % Lower Net Index Apr 2024 22.1 62.6 15.3 +6.8 51.3
Mar 2024 25.3 61.7 13.0 +12.3 54.6 Feb 2024 18.0 64.8 17.2 +0.8 48.4 Jan 2024
18.4 57.8 23.8 -5.4 50.4
EMPLOYMENT
ISM®’s Employment Index registered 48.6 percent in April, 1.2 percentage points
higher than the March reading of 47.4 percent. “The index indicated employment
contracted for the seventh month in a row (but at a slower rate in April) after
one month of expansion and three months of contraction before that. Of the six
big manufacturing sectors, two (Transportation Equipment; and Computer &
Electronic Products) expanded employment in April. Many Business Survey
Committee respondents’ companies are continuing to reduce head counts through
layoffs (which accounted for 50 percent of reduction activity, down from 76
percent in March), attrition and hiring freezes. Panelists’ comments in April
indicated a slowing of staff-cutting efforts. The approximately 1.7-to-1 ratio
of hire versus reduction comments is the highest since September 2023, when it
was 2-to-1,” says Fiore. An Employment Index above 50.3 percent, over time, is
generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
data on manufacturing employment.
Of 18 manufacturing industries, the four industries reporting employment growth
in April are: Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Transportation
Equipment; and Computer & Electronic Products. The seven industries reporting a
decrease in employment in April, in the following order, are: Paper Products;
Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber
Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; and Chemical Products. Seven
industries reported no change in employment in April as compared to March.
Employment % Higher % Same % Lower Net Index Apr 2024 16.3 67.9 15.8 +0.5 48.6
Mar 2024 14.1 67.8 18.1 -4.0 47.4 Feb 2024 10.9 70.5 18.6 -7.7 45.9 Jan 2024
11.0 70.6 18.4 -7.4 47.1
SUPPLIER DELIVERIES*
Delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was marginally
faster in April for the second consecutive month after one month of slowing
preceded by 16 straight months in “faster” territory. The Supplier Deliveries
Index, which registered 48.9 percent, was 1 percentage point lower than the 49.9
percent reported in March. After a reading of 52.4 percent in September 2022,
the index went into contraction territory in October and remained there until
February. Of the six big industries, only one (Food, Beverage & Tobacco
Products) reported slower supplier deliveries in April. “Suppliers continue to
support their customers adequately as suppliers deliver faster, make more
reliable promises and slowly reduce lead times,” says Fiore. A reading below 50
percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates
slower deliveries.
The four manufacturing industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in April
are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco
Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The eight
industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in April — in the following
order — are: Wood Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Plastics & Rubber
Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery;
Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products. Six industries reported no
change in delivery performance in April compared to March.
Supplier Deliveries % Slower % Same % Faster Net Index Apr 2024 8.1 81.6 10.3
-2.2 48.9 Mar 2024 9.0 81.7 9.3 -0.3 49.9 Feb 2024 8.9 82.4 8.7 +0.2 50.1 Jan
2024 9.7 78.7 11.6 -1.9 49.1
INVENTORIES
The Inventories Index registered 48.2 percent in April, the same reading as
reported in March. “Manufacturing inventories contracted at the same rate
compared to the previous month. Of the six big industries, only one (Food,
Beverage & Tobacco Products) increased manufacturing inventories in April.
Panelists’ companies continue to indicate a willingness to invest in
manufacturing inventory to improve on-time deliveries, gain precision in revenue
projections and improve customer service. However, they are proceeding
judiciously on this objective, preferring to wait for additional demand,” says
Fiore. An Inventories Index greater than 44.4 percent, over time, is generally
consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on
overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).
Of 18 manufacturing industries, four reported higher inventories in April: Wood
Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Nonmetallic Mineral
Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The eight industries reporting
lower inventories in April — in the following order — are: Miscellaneous
Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; Furniture & Related Products;
Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products;
Machinery; and Transportation Equipment. Six industries reported no change in
raw materials inventories in April compared to March.
Inventories % Higher % Same % Lower Net Index Apr 2024 13.1 67.7 19.2 -6.1 48.2
Mar 2024 16.0 66.2 17.8 -1.8 48.2 Feb 2024 12.7 70.4 16.9 -4.2 45.3 Jan 2024
14.0 63.8 22.2 -8.2 46.2
CUSTOMERS' INVENTORIES*
ISM®’s Customers’ Inventories Index registered 47.8 percent in April, up 3.8
percentage points compared to the 44 percent reported in March. “Customers’
inventory levels decreased at a slower rate in April, with the index moving
upward in ‘too low’ territory. Panelists report their companies’ customers have
sufficient amounts of their products in inventory, which is considered neutral
for future new orders and production,” says Fiore.
The five industries reporting customers’ inventories as too high in April are:
Textile Mills; Wood Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous
Manufacturing; and Plastics & Rubber Products. The seven industries reporting
customers’ inventories as too low in April, in order, are: Primary Metals; Paper
Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Chemical Products;
Transportation Equipment; and Computer & Electronic Products.
Customers' Inventories % Reporting % Too High % About Right % Too Low Net Index
Apr 2024 76 15.6 64.3 20.1 -4.5 47.8 Mar 2024 75 8.9 70.2 20.9 -12.0 44.0 Feb
2024 77 10.9 69.7 19.4 -8.5 45.8 Jan 2024 75 10.2 66.9 22.9 -12.7 43.7
PRICES*
The ISM® Prices Index registered 60.9 percent, 5.1 percentage points higher
compared to the March reading of 55.8 percent, indicating raw materials prices
increased in April for the fourth month in a row after eight consecutive months
of decreases. Of the six largest manufacturing industries, four — Chemical
Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and
Machinery — reported price increases in April. “The Prices Index indicated
strong expansion in April, with its highest reading since June 2022 (78.7
percent). Commodity prices continue to increase, especially crude oil, aluminum,
steel and plastics. Thirty-one percent of companies reported higher prices in
April, compared to 24 percent in March,” says Fiore. A Prices Index above 52.8
percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of
Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.
In April, the 13 industries that reported paying increased prices for raw
materials, in order, are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills;
Petroleum & Coal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products;
Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances &
Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic
Products; Furniture & Related Products; and Machinery. The only industry
reporting paying decreased prices for raw materials in April is Food, Beverage &
Tobacco Products.
Prices % Higher % Same % Lower Net Index Apr 2024 30.8 60.1 9.1 +21.7 60.9 Mar
2024 23.6 64.4 12.0 +11.6 55.8 Feb 2024 18.3 68.3 13.4 +4.9 52.5 Jan 2024 19.5
66.7 13.8 +5.7 52.9
BACKLOG OF ORDERS*
ISM®’s Backlog of Orders Index registered 45.4 percent, down 0.9 percentage
point from the 46.3 percent reported in March, indicating order backlogs
contracted for the 19th consecutive month after a 27-month period of expansion.
None of the six largest manufacturing industries reported expanded order
backlogs in April. “The index remained in contraction in April, as new order
rates and production output were insufficient to allow backlogs to grow,” says
Fiore.
Of 18 manufacturing industries, the three that reported growth in order backlogs
in April are: Wood Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Plastics & Rubber
Products. The 11 industries reporting lower backlogs in April — in the following
order — are: Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Primary Metals; Paper
Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery;
Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Electrical
Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Chemical Products.
Backlog of Orders % Reporting % Higher % Same % Lower Net Index Apr 2024 90 12.2
66.4 21.4 -9.2 45.4 Mar 2024 92 14.8 62.9 22.3 -7.5 46.3 Feb 2024 93 14.9 62.8
22.3 -7.4 46.3 Jan 2024 91 17.5 54.4 28.1 -10.6 44.7
NEW EXPORT ORDERS*
ISM®’s New Export Orders Index registered 48.7 percent in April, down 2.9
percentage points from March’s reading of 51.6 percent. “The New Export Orders
Index reading indicates that export orders contracted in April following two
straight months of expansion and eight months of contraction prior to that.
Panelists’ comments continue to support improvement in demand from overseas
customers,” says Fiore.
The five industries reporting growth in new export orders in April are: Wood
Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food,
Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.
The six industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in April — in the
following order — are: Furniture & Related Products; Primary Metals; Computer &
Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; and Chemical Products.
Six industries reported no change in exports in April.
New Export Orders % Reporting % Higher % Same % Lower Net Index Apr 2024 74 9.7
78.0 12.3 -2.6 48.7 Mar 2024 76 12.2 78.8 9.0 +3.2 51.6 Feb 2024 71 12.0 79.2
8.8 +3.2 51.6 Jan 2024 73 8.4 73.5 18.1 -9.7 45.2
IMPORTS*
ISM®’s Imports Index registered 51.9 percent in April, cooling somewhat with a
decrease of 1.1 percentage points compared to March’s reading of 53 percent.
“Imports grew for the fourth consecutive month in April after contracting for 14
consecutive months. Companies continue to increase on-hand inventories, in line
with an overall restocking of input materials. Ocean freight costs continue to
rise as a result of the Red Sea turmoil and Suez Canal disruptions,” says Fiore.
The six industries reporting an increase in import volumes in April — listed in
the following order — are: Wood Products; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal
Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; and
Chemical Products. The five industries that reported lower volumes of imports in
April are: Primary Metals; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber
Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Machinery. Seven industries
reported no change in imports in April compared to March.
Imports % Reporting % Higher % Same % Lower Net Index Apr 2024 85 11.6 80.6 7.8
+3.8 51.9 Mar 2024 84 12.5 80.9 6.6 +5.9 53.0 Feb 2024 83 14.0 77.9 8.1 +5.9
53.0 Jan 2024 83 11.9 76.3 11.8 +0.1 50.1
*THE SUPPLIER DELIVERIES, CUSTOMERS' INVENTORIES, PRICES, BACKLOG OF ORDERS, NEW
EXPORT ORDERS AND IMPORTS INDEXES DO NOT MEET THE ACCEPTED CRITERIA FOR SEASONAL
ADJUSTMENTS.
BUYING POLICY
The average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures in April was 170 days,
a decrease of six days compared to March. Average lead time in April for
Production Materials was 79 days, an increase of one day. Average lead time for
Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies was 44 days, the same as in
March.
PERCENT REPORTING
Capital Expenditures Hand-to-Mouth 30 Days 60 Days 90 Days 6 Months 1 Year +
Average Days Apr 2024 17 4 8 13 32 26 170 Mar 2024 14 5 9 13 31 28 176 Feb 2024
14 5 7 14 32 28 177 Jan 2024 16 5 9 13 29 28 172
PERCENT REPORTING
Production Materials Hand-to-Mouth 30 Days 60 Days 90 Days 6 Months 1 Year +
Average Days Apr 2024 7 23 29 30 7 4 79 Mar 2024 8 22 31 28 7 4 78 Feb 2024 9 25
26 25 11 4 80 Jan 2024 8 23 30 24 10 5 83
PERCENT REPORTING
MRO Supplies Hand-to-Mouth 30 Days 60 Days 90 Days 6 Months 1 Year + Average
Days Apr 2024 29 37 17 12 4 1 44 Mar 2024 25 40 18 12 5 0 44 Feb 2024 29 36 19
11 5 0 43 Jan 2024 29 37 16 13 5 0 43
ABOUT THIS REPORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports
released across the country. The national report’s information reflects the
entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from
their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not
used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled
in this report is for the month of April 2024.
The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply
executives based on information they have collected within their respective
organizations. ISM® makes no representation, other than that stated within this
release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data
should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in
decision-making.
DATA AND METHOD OF PRESENTATION
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® is based on data compiled from
purchasing and supply executives nationwide. The composition of the
Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is stratified according to the North
American Industry Classification System (NAICS) and each of the following
NAICS-based industries’ contribution to gross domestic product (GDP): Food,
Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products;
Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum
& Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic
Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer
& Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components;
Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous
Manufacturing (products such as medical equipment and supplies, jewelry,
sporting goods, toys and office supplies). The data are weighted based on each
industry’s contribution to GDP. According to BEA estimates (the average of the
fourth quarter 2022 GDP estimate and the GDP estimates for first, second, and
third quarter 2023, as released on December 21, 2023), the six largest
manufacturing industries are: Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Food,
Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; and
Fabricated Metal Products.
Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to
the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of
Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries,
Inventories, Customers’ Inventories, Employment and Prices), this report shows
the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of
responses in the positive economic direction (higher, better and slower for
Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower, worse and
faster for Supplier Deliveries), and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data
and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive
responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive).
The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal
adjustments (Manufacturing PMI®, New Orders, Production, Employment and
Inventories) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive
intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather
conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to
non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to
relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The Manufacturing PMI® is
a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes with
equal weights: New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Production (seasonally
adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted), Supplier Deliveries, and
Inventories (seasonally adjusted).
Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient
summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of
change. A Manufacturing PMI® reading above 50 percent indicates that the
manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it
is generally declining. A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent, over a period
of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is
generally expanding; below 42.5 percent, it is generally declining. The distance
from 50 percent or 42.5 percent is indicative of the extent of the expansion or
decline. With some of the indicators within this report, ISM® has indicated the
departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series,
as determined by regression analysis. The Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®
survey is sent out to Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents the
first part of each month. Respondents are asked to report on information for the
current month for U.S. operations only. ISM® receives survey responses
throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally
waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate
picture of current business activity. ISM® then compiles the report for release
on the first business day of the following month.
The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Manufacturing ISM® Report
On Business® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least
growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed
in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of
contraction/decrease.
Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current month’s
lead time, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for which commitments
are made for Capital Expenditures; Production Materials; and Maintenance, Repair
and Operating (MRO) Supplies, expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days,
60 days, 90 days, six months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the
weighted average number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised,
and not seasonally adjusted.
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ABOUT INSTITUTE FOR SUPPLY MANAGEMENT® (ISM®)
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Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) is the first and leading not-for-profit
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