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J.P. MORGAN HOME

slide 1 of 3

THE PROBABILITY OF A RECESSION NOW STANDS AT 35%

Softer-than-expected labor market data and slowing economic growth have
increased the probability of a downturn, in our view.

Discover more

HOW TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF AI ON YOUR PORTFOLIO

Companies and fund managers are moving quickly to tap into AI’s potential, but
are they also properly weighing the risks? Here’s how we’re making our
assessments.

Learn more

3Q 2024 GUIDE TO THE MARKETS

Easily illustrate key investing topics during client conversations.

1/3

* The probability of a recession now stands at 35%...

* How to assess the potential impact of AI on...

* 3Q 2024 Guide to the Markets

Wealth Management

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answer is J.P. Morgan Wealth Management.

Get started

OUR TEAM, CLIENTS, COMMUNITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS ARE AT THE CENTER OF EVERYTHING
WE DO

Through our tailored solutions spanning investment and commercial banking,
payments processing and asset management, we're relentlessly focused on serving
our clients globally and driving sustainable impact for our communities.

learn more about us

WHAT PROBLEM CAN WE SOLVE TOGETHER?

slide 1 of 6

Asset Management

At J.P. Morgan Asset Management, we believe investors deserve an expert global
partner they can trust to step up and deliver strong outcomes.

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Commercial Banking

We provide credit, financing, treasury and payment solutions to help your
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Invest for the future. On your terms.

Whether you want to invest on you own or work with an advisor to design a
personalized investment strategy, we have opportunities for every investor

Learn more

1/6

MID-YEAR OUTLOOKS

slide 1 to 3 of 3

Global Research

The market outlook at mid-year: A long road to normal

Jul 19, 2024

Against a backdrop of moderating global growth, what is the macro and market
outlook for the second half of 2024 and beyond?

Outlook

Innovation economy midyear outlook

Aug 02, 2024

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venture fundraising, investment, valuations and the exit environment.

Real Estate

2024 commercial real estate midyear outlook

Real Estate

2024 multifamily market update for real estate investors

Outlook

A strong economy in a fragile world

1/3

SETTING THE LOW-CARBON TRANSITION IN MOTION

Discover how J.P. Morgan supports clients along the journey toward a low-carbon
economy — every step of the way.

Learn more

ESG

ESG at J.P. Morgan

Learn about our approach to ESG and access the latest ESG research and insights.
Discover how we are helping support a sustainable and inclusive economy for our
clients and the communities we serve.

Read more
slide 1 to 3 of 3

Payments

Payments Unbound - The digital magazine

Get insights from leading voices across industries into the future of payments
with Payments Unbound from J.P. Morgan Payments and WIRED Consulting.

Learn more

Banking

Startup Insights Report

Aug 13, 2024

Our Startup Insights Report highlights traits of successful founders, emerging
sector trends and regional insights for AI, venture funding and robotics.

Current Events

2024 election insights

Insights on the 2024 U.S. general election, potential election outcomes, policy
agendas and investment implications to help investors navigate the election
cycle in portfolios.

1/3

12:32

UNPACKING THE INVESTMENT BANKING OUTLOOK IN ASIA PACIFIC

Click for more podcasts

From the key regional markets of Japan, India and China to trending sectors,
join host Mark Fiteny and Paul Uren, Head of Asia Pacific Investment Banking, to
get the update on where the bright spots in investment banking activity are in
Asia Pacific.

Unpacking the Investment Banking Outlook in Asia Pacific
Unpacking the Investment Banking Outlook in Asia Pacific_podcast_08012024

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[MUSIC]

Mark Fiteny: Hi, you're listening to What's the Deal, our investment banking
series here on J.P. Morgan's Making Sense podcast channel. I'm your host, Mark
Fiteny, ead of TMT and New Economy Investment Banking for Asia Pacific at
J.P. Morgan. And today I'm joined by Paul Uren, our Head of Investment Banking
for APAC. Together we will discuss some of the key themes and trends that are
shaping the outlook for investment banking in the region as we move through the
second half of the year. Paul, thanks for joining me.

Paul Uren: Thanks, Mark. It's great to be here with you in Hong Kong.

Mark Fiteny: To kick things off, let's start with the broader economic backdrop.
It's been an interesting first half. After what may have seemed like a
continuation of last year's challenging market conditions to start off the year,
equity markets have been more recently bullish. There have been expectations of
a more constructive rate environment and ongoing policy and exchange efforts
across the region to encourage activity. Overall, it does feel more positive.
How are our clients looking at the current environment?

Paul Uren: As you know, we cover clients and have investment bankers on the
ground in 13 different markets in Asia, and every country's unique. But I do
think there are some general themes that we can point to. The first thing is
that clients feel like the worst is behind them in terms of business and
economic conditions. The second thing is that while stock prices haven't been as
strong as they have been in the U.S., most companies have seen their stock
prices trend upward this year. That's certainly improving board and CEO
confidence. And then, the third thing I'd touch on is that with more clarity on
the trajectory of interest rates broadly, clients are generally of the view that
they should get on and start preparing for transitions, whether that's M&A or
capital markets.

Mark Fiteny: And given that backdrop, how are you guiding your clients
accordingly?

Paul Uren: Look, as you and I both know well, there are lots of issues to
navigate throughout the different markets in Asia Pacific, not just
economically, but also with many elections in Asia and around the world this
year. And also an increasingly complex geopolitical environment. More broadly,
in M&A we're advising clients to get prepared so they can best assess the
optimal time to launch sale processes, but also advising them, and helping them
being more creative with tailored or bespoke processes that we can use to help
derisk outcomes.

Mark Fiteny: And how has that translated into activity across the investment
banking industry so far this year?

Paul Uren: Well, look, it genuinely has been a tale of two quarters so far this
year in Asia Pacific. If you go back to the first quarter, when we look at the
data for the entire industry, known as the APAC addressable wallet, the first
quarter was down about 15% from the equivalent period in 2023. However, we saw a
really strong recovery in the second quarter, with the second quarter up around
40% on the equivalent period last year. As a result, for the first half the
investment banking industry in Asia has seen the overall fee wall at up around
10%.

Mark Fiteny: You had noted that you have bankers on the ground in 13 different
countries. It's clear that Asia's not homogeneous, and we're seeing clients
broadly more, more active, but a few markets have continued to stand out in
their strength, India and Japan as examples. Can you talk a bit about what
you're seeing in, in these major markets?

Paul Uren: Yeah, well, look, both India and Japan have been key beneficiaries of
capital flowing from other markets such as China. And if I start with Japan, you
know, that has become the largest and most active investment banking market in
Asia Pacific, representing around 35% of the overall investment banking market.
In Japan so far this year, investment banking activity for the industry is up
around 20% on 2023. There are a number of factors driving that. One is
corporate governance reforms that have been implemented in Japan and are driving
much greater focus on shareholder value. That's leading to more activity. With
stock prices having rallied in Japan over the last couple of years, we're seeing
renewed confidence on the part of our Japanese corporate clients to pursue M&A
outside of Japan. Our teams are very active across many sectors, including FIG,
healthcare, industrials, and energy, as well as TMT, working with Japanese
acquirers as they look to expand internationally.

Mark Fiteny: All right. And why don't we move on to India?

Paul Uren: So with the election in India now behind us, we expect to see
continued pickup in activity. The Indian equity market's become much more
developed and sophisticated, with participants from both the local market but
also institutional investor focus internationally. There's a large pipeline of
IPOs, including a number of very large IPOs, and we can see India becoming one
of the most important IPO markets globally.

Mark Fiteny: And I did want to look at China. After a quiet stretch, we've
actually seen a flurry of activity largely centered around opportunistic
financing and portfolio management. What is your outlook on China for the near
and medium term?

Paul Uren: Yeah, the investment banking market in China have been quiet
throughout 2023 and the early part of 2024, given the complex economic picture
in China, and in particular concerns about the real estate market. With more
policy support in China that's helped lead to a rebound in Chinese equities, and
therefore more opportunities have opened up for our corporate clients. A number
of our clients have been very quick to address financing needs with equity or
equity linked transactions, and we expect to see more of that activity in the
coming months. IPOs were historically a very important part of the Chinese and
Hong Kong markets. IPO activity in Hong Kong and China remains limited, but the
pipeline is building. We expect to see some high quality companies come to
market soon, and the success of those IPOs will create momentum for more IPOs to
follow in 2025.

Mark Fiteny: So, if we look at it on a sector level, where's the activity and
what are some of the key themes you're seeing?

Paul Uren: Yeah, there's a few key areas that I'd call out. The first one is
energy transition, where we're seeing continued investment across parts of the
EV supply chain and in renewable energy, where countries like China really do
lead the world. The second one I'd call out is the ongoing strategic
consolidation around the broader commodities complex, so we're seeing a lot of
activity in metals and mining. And then, the third one is one that you know
extremely well, which is the impact of artificial intelligence and the
associated needs in a whole array of areas including data centers.

Mark Fiteny: Yes, for T&T, there is broad activity around AI transition. It's
got implications on digital infrastructure, but also the broader tech supply
chain, which is an important theme across multiple parts of the region. How are
you seeing thematically, the balance of growth and profitability as companies
are managing their balance sheets and their P&Ls?

Paul Uren: Yeah, I think as you and I are both seeing with a number of the
clients that we engage with, clients are really trying to strike the right
balance between growth and profitability because they know that's what their
investors, whether it's public capital, or private capital, are very focused on.

Mark Fiteny: Yeah, it seems that growth is still paramount, but it's not growth
at any cost, it's growth with a focus on what is the margin potential and what
is the underlying unique economic model to show that you can actually create
margins over time. Investors are not giving the benefit of the doubt, they're
wanting to see it in performance.

Paul Uren: Totally agree with that, yeah.

Mark Fiteny: Paul as you're looking at private equity and financial sponsor
activity, where are they focusing? What sort of themes are the sponsors looking
at?

Paul Uren: Yeah, the first thing I'd say is that private equity in Asia have the
same challenges as in other geographies around the world, and the return of
capital to investors has been slow. I think that's hand-picked new deal activity
on the buy side for acquirers, and it has set the bar very high for new deals.
That being said, we're starting to see a pickup in activity.

Mark Fiteny: If you look at the dry powder relative to the activity flow, would
you expect more will happen in the future than it's happened in the recent past?

Paul Uren: Yeah, if I look at our own pipeline, we're working on more
transactions without private equity clients on the buy side today than we were
12 months ago. And I think there's much more in terms of desire on the part of
our private equity clients to deploy capital in this environment.

Mark Fiteny: And you wrote our balance sheet for the region. How are you looking
at deploying capital relative to sponsored activity?

Paul Uren: Yeah, so I think financing markets are generally supportive of
private equity activity and certainly opening constructive, so while debt might
be expensive relative to where it was in 2021, when you look at the cost of
financing relative to long-term averages, I think it's probably in line with
where it was. The other thing that I would add is that with higher growth
generally in Asia, debt plays a less critical role in the capital structure. So,
transactions are generally capitalized with more equity compared to other parts
of the world, but, pleasingly, debt is available, and that's gonna help
transactions as we look into the back half of this year into next year.

Mark Fiteny: What about the strategic backdrop? How are you seeing corporates
looking at consolidation or investing for growth or managing for corporate
clarity?

Paul Uren: Yeah, after a period of putting strategic initiatives on pause, we're
certainly seeing corporate clients focused on value creation and deciding that
they really need to get on with their M&A agenda. I think deals that have a
compelling strategic rationale and enhance competitive positioning will be
supported by the investment community. In some markets like Japan, we're also
seeing increasing activity from activist investors, and they're becoming a
really prominent part of the market. That's encouraging clients to focus on
shareholder value-creating initiatives, and I'd say that overall the level of
strategic dialogue that we're having with our corporate clients is much higher
than it was this time last year.

Mark Fiteny: What about cross-border M&A in particular? Are you seeing a pickup
in any markets that attracting attention for international inbound investors?
And the same question for outbound, from Asia to the rest of the world.

Paul Uren: Yeah, Japan, India, Korea, and Australia are some of the markets that
are continuing to attract strategic interest from global corporates. When we
look at outbound M&A from Asia to other parts of the world, seeing very high
levels of engagement on cross-border M&A, and we've helped a number of Asian
clients on the buy side as they go into other markets. Cross-border M&A's
usually impacted by elections, because it impacts regulatory clarity and also
the approval processes. And when we have more than 60 countries holding
elections in 2024, that is definitely a factor that has slowed activity to some
degree. That being said, I would say the level of client dialogue remains very
high, and we're encouraged by the prospects for next year.

Mark Fiteny: So it's sounds like I'm hearing three things: One is a more
constructive backdrop, two is corporate is getting more comfortable with the
environment that they're in, and three is your guidance is that preparation
makes sense given it's not gonna be a linear trajectory being in position to be
able to act when the market is ready is the best advice you give to your
clients.

Paul Uren: Yeah, I think that's a good summary, Mark. You know, the world is
complicated, market conditions continue to evolve. It's one of the things that I
think both you and I greatly enjoy about being in Asia is the variety of both
clients, but also the number of different markets to navigate. And I do think,
getting prepared is the right thing for clients to do so they can execute their
strategic agenda. But we feel optimistic about the outlook for the rest of this
year and also into next year.

Mark Fiteny: Perfect. Thanks for joining me today, Paul, lots of great points
for us to take away and for us to think about. And thanks to our listeners for
tuning in to another episode of What's the Deal?.

Paul Uren : Thanks, Mark.

[End of Episode]

| 00:01:00

Defining moments

Discover how J.P. Morgan upholds its defining principles of integrity, service
and excellence — both on and off the court.

| 00:01:00

Defining moments

Discover how J.P. Morgan upholds its defining principles of integrity, service
and excellence — both on and off the court.

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How do you measure a moment, in seconds, in beats, in breaths? What if you
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