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March 30, 2011


EFFECTS OF CRUDE OIL SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS: HOW LONG CAN THEY LAST?



Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review – Table
11.1a
* Note - Month 1 shows the change in daily production volume in the first month
of each disruption as compared to the average daily production in the three
months prior to the disruption. The table shows the pre-disruption daily average
production rate during the three months prior to the disruption.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Recent events in the Middle East and North Africa region have unsettled an
already tightening oil market, leaving market participants to evaluate and cope
with the possible short- and long-term effects of both current and potential
supply disruptions. While events that cause oil disruptions may be transitory,
their impact on oil production levels can persist for an extended period. Past
experience suggests that the absences of internal discord and external conflicts
or sanctions are important conditions for a recovery in production.

This edition of Today in Energy reviews the gross production impacts of three
past disruptions: the Iranian revolution of 1978-1979, the Iraqi invasion of
Kuwait in 1990, and the Venezuelan strike in 2002. Historically, the disrupted
volumes are initially replaced mainly with the drawdown of inventories and then
with increased production from other countries that have the capacity to
increase output quickly. When new production arrives to help replace lost
supplies, we can lose sight of the length of the loss from the disruption and
subsequent events.

The Iranian revolution, which began in late 1978, resulted in an average drop of
3.9 million barrels per day (MMbbl/d) in Iran's crude oil production over the
1978 to 1981 period, with the initial supply loss reaching nearly 90 percent of
total Iranian production in January 1979. However, much of this lost production
was offset by increases in output from other Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries (OPEC) members, particularly from Iran's Persian Gulf neighbors. While
some of Iran's production returned within two years, Iran's production in 2010
was more than 1.5 MMbbl/d below its average level in 1977, the year before the
revolution began. Similarly, when Iraq invaded Kuwait on August 2, 1990, oil
supplies from these two countries were disrupted, causing a sudden crude oil
price run-up. Immediately following the invasion, nearly all of Kuwait's and
Iraq's oil production was taken offline. The peak lost production of about 4.3
MMbbl/d of combined Iraqi and Kuwaiti crude oil tested markets.

While Kuwait's oil wells suffered extensive damage from sabotage by retreating
Iraqi forces, the country emerged from the war free of both internal discord and
external interference with its recovery efforts, which began immediately
following the withdrawal of Iraqi forces. That created a favorable environment
for a recovery of production. Despite the significant field damage, average
annual Kuwaiti oil production exceeded pre-disruption levels in less than four
years. In contrast, Iraq, which has at various times over the past 20 years
faced external sanctions, war, and internal strife, has not seen its production
fully recover. In 2010, Iraq's production averaged 2.4 MMbbl/d, compared with
3.5 MMbbl/d, the pre-disruption 1990 monthly peak.

The December 2002 Venezuelan strike initially disrupted two-thirds of
Venezuela's 3.0 MMbbl/d November 2002 production. OPEC members Saudi Arabia and
Kuwait have crude oils similar in quality to the Venezuelan crude oils, and,
following the strike, these countries increased production to partially offset
Venezuelan losses. Within a year, Venezuelan production returned to about 85
percent of its pre-strike level. While the strike officially ended in February
2003, Venezuela's production has never returned to its pre-strike level. EIA
estimates Venezuela's current production at roughly 2.1 MMbbl/d.

Past events may not be an indication of how long it will take to restore Libya's
production, currently estimated to be at a near-complete shut-in. The extent and
duration of Libya's supply disruption will depend on several factors. Much will
depend on the political outcome and the acceptance of the government in power by
both the Libyan people and the international community following the end of
hostilities. Sanctions would need to be lifted to allow for international
participation (both in terms of investment and trade) in Libya's oil sector.
Following commercial and contractual negotiations, any infrastructure that has
been damaged will have to be repaired and the knowledge base will have to return
to the country before production can begin to ramp up. In light of these
considerations, it is not surprising that the world crude market still reflects
large uncertainties.

Tags: crude oil, disruption, international, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, liquid
fuels, oil/petroleum

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