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2024 Election Forecast

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2024 Presidential Election

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U.S. Recession in 2024?

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TopNewUS ElectionSwing StatesPopular VoteElection NightMargin of
VictoryMapsSenateDemographicsHouseMiddle EastTrumpPollingKamala

Presidential Election Winner 2024

Donald Trump

71%

YesNo

Kamala Harris

29%

YesNo

Joe Biden

<1%

YesNo

Michelle Obama

<1%

YesNo

Gavin Newsom

<1%

YesNo

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

<1%

YesNo

Nikki Haley

<1%

YesNo

Ron DeSantis

<1%

YesNo

Vivek Ramaswamy

<1%

YesNo

Chris Christie

<1%

YesNo

Hillary Clinton

<1%

YesNo

AOC

<1%

YesNo

Bernie Sanders

<1%

YesNo

Elizabeth Warren

<1%

YesNo

Kanye

<1%

YesNo

Other Democrat Politician

<1%

YesNo

Other Republican Politician

<1%

YesNo
$3.4b Vol.
216,394

Popular Vote Winner 2024

Kamala Harris

62%

YesNo

Donald Trump

38%

YesNo

Joe Biden

<1%

YesNo

Michelle Obama

<1%

YesNo

Gavin Newsom

<1%

YesNo

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

<1%

YesNo

Nikki Haley

<1%

YesNo

Ron DeSantis

<1%

YesNo

Vivek Ramaswamy

<1%

YesNo

Chris Christie

<1%

YesNo

Hillary Clinton

<1%

YesNo

AOC

<1%

YesNo

Bernie Sanders

<1%

YesNo

Elizabeth Warren

<1%

YesNo

Other Democrat Politician

<1%

YesNo

Other Republican Politician

<1%

YesNo

Kanye West

<1%

YesNo
$572.5m Vol.
4,040

Electoral College Margin of Victory?

GOP by 215+

<1%

YesNo

GOP by 155-214

2%

YesNo

GOP by 105-154

6%

YesNo

GOP by 65-104

28%

YesNo

GOP by 35-64

22%

YesNo

GOP by 15-34

14%

YesNo

GOP by 5-14

3%

YesNo

GOP by 1-4

1%

YesNo

Dems by 0-4

8%

YesNo

Dems by 5-14

5%

YesNo

Dems by 15-34

3%

YesNo

Dems by 35-64

8%

YesNo

Dems by 65-104

3%

YesNo

Dems by 105-154

2%

YesNo

Dems by 155-214

<1%

YesNo

Dems by 215+

<1%

YesNo

GOP/Dems both lose

<1%

YesNo
$102.8m Vol.
418

Balance of Power: 2024 Election

Republicans sweep

55%

YesNo

D Prez, R Senate, D House

20%

YesNo

R Prez, R Senate, D House

18%

YesNo

Democrats sweep

7%

YesNo

D Prez, R Senate, R House

6%

YesNo

R Prez, D Senate, R House

1%

YesNo

D Prez, D Senate, R House

1%

YesNo

R Prez, D Senate, D House

<1%

YesNo

Other

<1%

YesNo
$67.9m Vol.
357

Who will win Pennsylvania?

Donald Trump

62%

YesNo

Kamala Harris

39%

YesNo

Other

<1%

YesNo
$27.2m Vol.
1,367

Trump wins every swing state?

22%

chance

Buy Yes

Buy No

$8.4m Vol.
417

Senate control after 2024 election?

28%

Democrats

Buy Democrats

Buy Republicans

$3.2m Vol.
46

Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

61%

chance

Buy Yes

Buy No

$2.1m Vol.
259

What day will the AP call the election?

Tuesday, Nov 5

9%

YesNo

Wednesday, Nov 6

64%

YesNo

Thursday, Nov 7

18%

YesNo

Friday, Nov 8

8%

YesNo

Saturday, Nov 9

11%

YesNo

Sunday, Nov 10

2%

YesNo

Monday, Nov 11

3%

YesNo

Tuesday, Nov 12

2%

YesNo

Wednesday, Nov 13

2%

YesNo

Thursday, Nov 14

1%

YesNo

Friday, Nov 15

1%

YesNo

Saturday, Nov 16

1%

YesNo

Sunday, Nov 17

1%

YesNo

Monday, Nov 18

1%

YesNo

Tuesday, Nov 19

<1%

YesNo

Wednesday, Nov 20

1%

YesNo

Later

2%

YesNo
$1.3m Vol.
31

Closest state in the Presidential election?

Wisconsin

24%

YesNo

Pennsylvania

22%

YesNo

Nevada

21%

YesNo

Other

15%

YesNo

Michigan

13%

YesNo

Georgia

7%

YesNo

Arizona

4%

YesNo

North Carolina

4%

YesNo

Minnesota

3%

YesNo

New Hampshire

3%

YesNo

Texas

2%

YesNo

Florida

1%

YesNo
$1.0m Vol.
22

Kamala Harris wins a solid red state?

5%

chance

Buy Yes

Buy No

$734.1k Vol.
38

Trump claims victory before AP calls the election?

85%

chance

Buy Yes

Buy No

$95.7k Vol.
30
View all

Trump x Elon space tonight?

9%

chance

Buy Yes

Buy No


NEW



Will Trump concede by midnight?

1%

chance

Buy Yes

Buy No

$6.3k Vol.
6

Will Kamala Harris concede by midnight?

6%

chance

Buy Yes

Buy No

$10.7k Vol.
3

Will Kamala Harris concede by Friday?

71%

chance

Buy Yes

Buy No


NEW

2

Will Trump concede by Friday?

9%

chance

Buy Yes

Buy No


NEW

1

What will Kamala say in speech after election is called?

It's not over

62%

YesNo

Trump

88%

YesNo

Trump 3+ times

54%

YesNo

Democracy 3+ times

51%

YesNo

Vote 3+ times

55%

YesNo

God

53%

YesNo

Doug

79%

YesNo

Biden

68%

YesNo

Victory

45%

YesNo

Joy/Joyful

55%

YesNo

Crypto/Bitcoin

3%

YesNo

Believe in Freedom

25%

YesNo

Won/Win

86%

YesNo

Promise of America

70%

YesNo

All/Every American(s)

70%

YesNo
$14.2k Vol.
14

What will Trump say in speech after election is called?

Kamala

85%

YesNo

Rig/Rigged

57%

YesNo

Fraud

54%

YesNo

MAGA

76%

YesNo

God

77%

YesNo

Border

52%

YesNo

Crypto/Bitcoin

6%

YesNo

Elon

45%

YesNo

Illegal

55%

YesNo

Pennsylvania

62%

YesNo

Steal/Stole

53%

YesNo

We Won

70%

YesNo

Mail-in

42%

YesNo

Victory 3+ times

61%

YesNo

America 5+ times

75%

YesNo
$89.8k Vol.
47

Will Trump claim victory by midnight?

54%

chance

Buy Yes

Buy No

$27.6k Vol.
8

Will either candidate concede by Friday?

60%

chance

Buy Yes

Buy No

$6.3k Vol.
4

Who will win young men?

71%

Harris

Buy Harris

Buy Trump

$39.1k Vol.
21

NH-02 election: Goodlander (D) vs. Williams (R)

96%

Goodlander

Buy Goodlander

Buy Williams

$11.7k Vol.
2

ETHBTC above 0.035 on Nov 30?

51%

chance

Buy Yes

Buy No


NEW

2
View all

Recent Activity

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Ethereum above $2,500 on November 8?

chi3 sold No at 47¢ ($4.70)

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iWtWZzBImgARQBpH... sold No at 99¢ ($3.85)

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$81,660,217

6


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$20,865,398

2


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$24,899,102

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undertaker

$19,177,158

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$22,956,684

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walletmobile

$16,098,346

4

qrpenc

$22,940,118

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$16,013,181

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$20,979,043

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$14,369,605

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