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3. Global Debt Report 2024
GLOBAL DEBT REPORT 2024
Bond Markets in a High-Debt Environment
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https://doi.org/10.1787/91844ea2-en
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7 March 2024
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OECD (2024), Global Debt Report 2024: Bond Markets in a High-Debt Environment,
OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/91844ea2-en.
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The first edition of the Global Debt Report 2024: Bond Markets in a High-Debt
Environment examines sovereign, corporate and sustainable bond markets,
providing insights into current market conditions and associated policy
considerations, including possible financial stability risks.
* Chapter 1: Sovereign borrowing outlook
* Chapter 2: Corporate debt markets in a changing macrofinancial landscape
* Chapter 3: Sustainable bonds: State of the market and policy considerations
SIGNIFICANT GROWTH OF BOND DEBT AROUND THE WORLD
Sovereign and corporate bond markets have grown significantly since 2008. A
favorable funding environment contributed to a surge in bond issuance which also
expanded into riskier market segments, including lower rated governments and
companies.
At the end of 2023, the total volume of sovereign and corporate bond debt stood
at almost USD 100 trillion, similar in size to global GDP. Total OECD government
bond debt is projected to increase to USD 56 trillion in 2024, an increase of
USD 30 trillion compared to 2008. At the end of 2023, global corporate bond debt
reached USD 34 trillion and over 60 per cent of the increase since 2008 came
from non-financial corporations.
THE SUSTAINABLE BOND MARKET HAS EMERGED IN THE LAST DECADE AND HAS GROWN RAPIDLY
SINCE 2018
At the end of 2023, the total amount of corporate and official-sector
sustainable bonds outstanding totalled USD 4.3 trillion, up from USD 641 billion
just five years prior.
This has made it a key source of funding for both governments and companies to
accelerate their transition to a low-carbon economy. In the sustainable bond
market, the corporate sector accounts for more than half of total issuance.
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF DEBT WILL NEED TO BE REFINANCED IN THE NEAR-TERM
Favourable funding conditions between 2008 and 2022 enabled many governments and
companies to borrow at low cost. However, around 40% of sovereign bonds and 37%
of corporate bonds globally will mature by 2026, requiring further borrowing
from the markets under higher interest rates. Even if inflation is brought down
to central banks’ targets, yields will likely remain higher than when most of
the debt was originally issued.
This will lead to growing financing pressures, particularly in emerging
economies where the amount of corporate bonds maturing in the next three years
is significant, representing 51% (USD 4.4 trillion) of the total in 2023.
CENTRAL BANKS HAVE ABSORBED LARGE PARTS OF THE INCREASES IN BORROWING, BUT HAVE
NOW BEGUN WITHDRAWING FROM BOND MARKETS
A large part of the increased borrowing since 2008 has been absorbed by central
banks. However, as central banks withdraw from bond markets through quantitative
tightening, a growing share of bonds are being purchased by more price-sensitive
investors such as households and the non-bank financial sector.
THE NEW FUNDING ENVIRONMENT REQUIRES CLOSE MONITORING AND A PRUDENT POLICY
APPROACH
The current macroeconomic landscape is transforming global bond markets at a
pace not seen in decades. This has profound implications for debt markets and
financial stability at a time of increased financing pressures.
Government spending needs to be highly targeted and focus more on investment in
areas that drive productivity increases and sustainable growth. Meanwhile market
supervisors should be closely monitoring the evolution of debt sustainability
indicators in businesses and exposures in the financial sector should credit
quality deteriorate significantly.
Further improvements are also needed in the sustainable bond market to enhance
its efficiency, adopting high-quality sustainable bond standards and requiring
external reviews, to ensure that these bonds deliver the intended positive
impacts for society and the environment, including to help effectively combat
climate change.
For press enquiries, please contact: Reemt.SEIBEL@oecd.org
For further information regarding the report, please contact:
GlobalDebtReport@oecd.org
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