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FI Insights
SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUELS – COULD SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUEL UPEND THE US PULP
INDUSTRY?
January 26, 2023
Pulp and Paper
Author: Camilla Abbati
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WHAT IS SAF?
The most recent acronym buzzing around the biofuels and bioproducts industry has
been SAF. But what exactly is SAF?
Otherwise known as Sustainable Aviation Fuel, SAF is part of the promised
low-carbon fuels future. SAF has similar chemistry and properties to
conventional jet fuel, but it is produced from sustainable sources like biomass
or waste materials. Depending on the feedstock and technologies selected, it can
reduce the lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions up to 80% when compared to
conventional jet fuel.
SAF’s lower carbon intensity makes it a relevant solution for reducing aviation
GHG emissions. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), aviation
accounted for over 2% of the global CO2 emissions in 2021. Air travel is
expected to double by 2050, and jet fuel consumption could account for 8-12% of
transportation emissions.
Since the Paris Agreement pledge to limit global temperature increases to 2ºC,
with pursuits to limit the increase even further to 1.5 ºC, multiple initiatives
are being considered. As a result, the use of SAF became a crucial strategy for
the aviation sector, given the status of technology and the possibility to use
it as a drop-in fuel.
But good intentions are simply intentions if the reality isn’t feasible.
UPTICKS IN INITIATIVES FOR SAF USAGE
Associations and governments are seriously investing in strategies to make SAF
technologically and economically feasible. The International Air Transport
Association (IATA), representing 83% of total air traffic, has committed to
achieve Net Zero Carbon by 2050. Airlines like KLM, Southwest, and United
Airlines have publicly announced their initiatives on SAF usage as well.
European Union's "Fit for 55" package proposes a 2% SAF blending mandate by
2025, 5% by 2030 and 63% by 2050.
In the United States, the current administration ran on a hardline stance
against expanding fossil energy use. For aviation, a “Grand Challenge” of
producing 3 billion gallons (11.3 billion liters) of SAF by 2030 was issued. To
put this segment into perspective, the US current annual consumption is:
* 123 billion gallons (465 billion liters) of gasoline
* 15 billion gallons (57 billion liters) of ethanol
* 64 billion gallons (242 billion liters) of diesel
* 4 billion gallons (15 billion liters) of biodiesel/renewable diesel
* 24 billion gallons (93 billion liters) of jet fuel
The US SAF production was 4.5 million gallons (17 million liters) in 2021,
increasing to more than 12 million gallons in 2022 (45 million liters).
Accordingly, substantial investments in infrastructure and technology
development can be expected in the coming years.
Globally, SAF production reached more than 79 million gallons (300 million
liters) in 2022. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) reports
there is about 10 billion gallons (39.9 billion liters) of SAF under offtake
agreements.
As SAF is not competitive with traditional jet fuel pricing, actions to remove
financial obstacles are in the works. One example of such solutions are the tax
credits described in the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA):
1. A $1.25-$1.75 per gallon credit is available for each gallon of SAF sold as
part of a qualified fuel mixture, if the SAF has a demonstrated lifecycle
GHG reduction of at least 50% compared to conventional jet fuel.
2. The second tax credit will offer up to $1.75/gallon rebate for producers of
fuels with a 100% GHG emissions reduction compared to fossil fuels.
HOW DO SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUELS IMPACT THE PULP AND PAPER INDUSTRY?
With the expected increase in demand, producers of SAF need to find suitable and
affordable feedstocks in sufficient quantities. It is a consensus among
producers that feedstock diversification is vital.
Current technologies tend to focus on organic waste, vegetable oil, and novel
crops. However, woody biomass, forestry residues, and other feedstocks are
already being considered for scaling up production.
With the increase of SAF (and other biofuels) capacity in the future,
availability and pricing of biomass used by the P&P industry could be impacted.
At the same time, many facilities could have the opportunity to transition into
biorefineries – manufacturing biofuels and other bioproducts in addition to
traditional pulp and paper products.
Some questions that arise from the increased popularity of SAF and other
biofuels include:
* What will the impact be to pulp producers’ raw material availability and
pricing?
* Will there be a new market for selling wastewood and wood-based by-products?
* With far more capital flowing into renewable fuel, could sustainable aviation
fuel create risks or opportunities for P&P companies worldwide?
Fisher International offers unparalleled data services and insights that allow
innovative and forward-looking companies to identify new opportunities that
drive business success. Talk with one of our experts today.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
About the Author:
Camilla Abbati has more than 15 years of experience in process and engineering
design. At Fisher International, Dr. Abbati is part of the Benchmark Team and is
responsible for developing, improving, and running the Benchmark Modules in
FisherSolve.
Her areas of expertise include process simulation, equipment design, capital
cost estimation, and investment risk analysis. Camilla holds a bachelor's and
master’s degree in chemical engineering from University of São Carlos and
University of Campinas. She also has a Ph.D. in Forest Biomaterials from North
Carolina State University, with a minor in business. Her research interests are
related to approaches and methodologies to aid investment decisions in
biorefineries.
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