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* AEM:CT $66.17 -0.03
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* H:CT $36.20 +0.32
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* IMO:CT $78.77 +0.93
* K:CT $6.72 -0.02
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* MFC:CT $25.54 -0.01
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* MRU:CT $71.86 +0.15
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Taking Stock: Taking Stock - Canada's competition act
Will Canada's competition act make any difference on inflationary pricing? Dany
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Sep 21, 2023
ETSY BULLS BET STOCK’S MISERABLE RUN IS NEARING END
Carmen Reinicke, Bloomberg News
*
,
(Bloomberg) -- Wall Street is optimistic that the tide may be turning for one of
the worst stocks on the S&P 500 Index.
The second-weakest performer on the index since the end of 2021, online
marketplace Etsy Inc. is now seeing a record number of analyst buy ratings,
while its average price target implies a gain of nearly 70% from current levels,
according to data compiled by Bloomberg — after the stock lost more than
two-thirds of its value over the past 21 months.
“Etsy may provide a pretty attractive entry point,” said David Klink, senior
analyst of equity research at Huntington Private Bank. “We’re starting to
increasingly feel like the next driver of growth is going to be diversification
in your portfolio, and maybe beefing up some of those bets on underperforming
stocks.”
The latest vote of confidence came from Wolfe Research, which raised its rating
last week to the buy-equivalent of outperform. Etsy has a number of ways to
improve profitability in coming years through rising consumer spending or cost
cutting, according to analyst Deepak Mathivanan.
“At a high-level, we think Etsy shares could outperform under various
scenarios,” Mathivanan wrote in a research note.
Of course, anyone betting on Etsy in the past two years has been sorely
disappointed. After seeing sales surge during the Covid-19 pandemic when
homebound shoppers were splurging on home-made face masks and decor, revenue
growth has slowed to a trickle. The stock, which hit a record of nearly $300 in
late 2021, is headed for its second annual decline of more than 45%.
That contrasts with other e-commerce stocks. An exchange-traded fund that tracks
online retailers has rallied this year, lifted by big gains from Amazon.com
Inc., Wayfair Inc. and Shopify Inc., which have all advanced more than 60%.
That bifurcation could be related to the bigger-is-better mantra that has
prevailed this year amid rising interest rates and uncertainty about the
direction of the economy. Unlike Amazon, which has a dominant market position
and strong balance sheet, companies like Etsy may be viewed as more niche and
discretionary, said Anthony Zackery, associate portfolio manager at Zevenbergen
Capital Investments LLC.
Part of the attraction for Etsy bulls, however, is its valuation. At 16 times
earnings projected over the next 12 months, the stock is priced well below its
average over the past five years of 46 times and at a significant discount to
e-commerce peers.
The catch is that Etsy’s revenue growth is a fraction of what it once was. Sales
are expected to expand 7% in 2023, compared with an average of 46% over the past
five years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Even some bulls are uncertain about when Etsy shares will turn a corner.
“While we see upside in the mid-to-long-term, we also believe Etsy shares could
remain range-bound in the near term,” said Evercore ISI analyst Shweta Khajuria,
who has an outperform rating on the stock. Khajuria cited macro-economic
challenges, competition and higher marketing costs.
Huntington Private Bank’s Klink sees Etsy benefiting from overly pessimistic
assumptions about the purchasing power of US consumers and says its depressed
valuation makes it compelling.
“That’s worth taking a swing at,” he said.
Tech Chart of the Day
Nvidia Corp.’s selloff in recent days has exposed a widening gap between the
stock price and analyst price targets, the average of which show a return
potential on the shares of 53%. The distance between the share price and the
average analyst target is at a record for the stock.
Top Tech Stories
* Alphabet Inc.’s Google executives are considering dropping Broadcom Inc. as a
supplier for artificial intelligence chips as soon as 2027 as the tech giant
seeks to develop in-house capacity, The Information reported Thursday, citing
an unidentified person familiar.
* Private equity fund Japan Industrial Partners Inc.’s successful tender offer
for Toshiba Corp. paves the way for a ¥2 trillion ($13.5 billion) buyout that
would end the electronics group’s 74-year-long run as a listed entity.
* Apple Inc.’s major suppliers in Taiwan suffered another double-digit sales
decline in August as weak consumer demand dragged down the wider electronics
industry.
* Three Amazon.com Inc. executives were accused by the US Federal Trade
Commission of participating in an alleged plan to make it difficult for
customers to cancel subscriptions to the company’s Prime membership service.
* Instacart, the US grocery-delivery giant that soared by as much as 43% in its
trading debut Tuesday, has now wiped out virtually all of those gains as
investors question its growth prospects.
Earnings Due Thursday
* Postmarket
* Scholastic
--With assistance from Thyagaraju Adinarayan.
(Updates stock moves at market open.)
©2023 Bloomberg L.P.
FAANG STOCKS
* 6:52
Meta has lost consumer trust, favour Alphabet and Amazon for FANG buys right
now: Hatem Dhiab
* 5:10
Stay away from the FAANG, but remain invested in tech: Strategist
* 3:57
Darren Sissons discusses the FAANG stocks and Microsoft
* 5:40
Amazon breakout would be a 'really big deal': Fairlead Strategies founder
Katie Stockton
* 6:33
Investors to see 'nothing but blowout earnings' for this quarter: Belpointe's
David Nelson
* 5:08
McCreath: April CPI data spooks equity markets
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