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MILK PRICES HAVE BEEN BETTER THAN EXPECTED: WILL IT LAST?


Milk_Canva (Canva)
By Robin Schmahl July 11, 2024



Milk prices are better than expected early this year, but higher prices are
certainly welcomed. The June Class III milk price of $19.87 was the highest
since December 2022 and the highest since June 2022. The same was true for Class
IV milk with a June price of $21.08 the highest since December 2022 and the
highest June since 2022. The income over feed price continues to improve with
the May price at $10.52 and is the best income over feed price since November
2022. Grain prices are under significant pressure which could improve income
over feed significantly as we move through the next few months. Eventually, this
will provide a great opportunity to lock in profitable feed prices for the
upcoming year.

The May Dairy Products report showed American cheese production 5.7% below May
2023 totaling 488.188 million pounds and nearly the same level as May 2022.
American cheese production has been below the previous year since January. It is
uncertain as to the reason cheese production has been running lower. The easy
explanation would be that milk production has been below a year ago this year.
However, U.S. milk production has been running below the previous year since
July 2023, yet American cheese output exceeded the prior year throughout the
last half of 2023. There seems to be a shift to other varieties of cheese.
Italian-type cheese production has surpassed the previous year and is
substantially higher than in 2023.

 

Milk prices have been better than expected and could remain that way for a
while. Lower American cheese production and strong exports should provide
further support. (Photos by USDA, AMS, DMIN)



Total cheese production has been mixed with some months higher and some lower.
This has kept American cheese inventory below last year setting the stage for
potentially higher prices if demand increases and runs similar to a year ago. So
far, demand has not increased sufficiently to cause concern for cheese buyers.
They have not been aggressive on the daily spot market with cheese prices
holding in a choppy pattern.

A positive development in the market is the strong exports of cheese. Cheese
reached the highest-ever exports during March, April, and May. This is positive
as higher cheese prices have not turned international buyers away. Higher prices
may have an impact as the year unfolds but overall cheese exports are expected
to remain strong. International butter demand is improving and may see a rebound
in exports through much of the rest of the year. If butter shows continued
strength in exports, the price may increase over the next few months. The butter
price may not set another record this year, but further strength is likely.

For more on markets, read:

 * Declining Grain Prices: A Godsend for Dairy Producers
 * Profitability on U.S. Dairy Farms Looking Up
 * Here's Why Freight Is Driving Up Amino Acid Prices
 * Here's Why Dairy Cattle Slaughter Numbers are Down
 * Milk Production and Cow Numbers Drop, Prices See Some Growth


Robin Schmahl is a commodity broker with AgDairy, the dairy division of John
Stewart & Associates Inc. (JSA). JSA is a full-service commodity brokerage firm
based out of St. Joseph, MO. Robin’s office is located in Elkhart Lake,
Wisconsin. Robin may be reached at 877-256-3253 or through the website
www.agdairy.com.

The thoughts expressed and the basic data from which they are drawn are believed
to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are
subject to change without notice. Hypothetical or simulated performance results
have certain inherent limitations. Simulated results do not represent actual
trading. Simulated trading programs are subject to the benefit of hindsight. No
representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve
profits or losses similar to those shown. There is risk of loss in trading
commodity futures and options on futures. It may not be suitable for everyone.
This material has been prepared by an employee or agent of JSA and is in the
nature of a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you acknowledge and
agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication for
making trading decisions.

 

 






TAGS

Dairy - General Cheese Milk - General Milk Prices Butter Feed Prices
 




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