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SCHOLZ LOSES CONFIDENCE VOTE AGAINST HIS GOVERNMENT, TRIGGERING EARLY ELECTIONS

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz attends the cabinet meeting at the chancellery in
Berlin, Germany, Wednesday, Dec. 11, 2024. - Copyright Fotó: AP
Copyright Fotó: AP
By Tamsin Paternoster & Anne Frieda Müller
Published on 16/12/2024 - 16:36 GMT+1 •Updated 17/12/2024 - 7:33 GMT+1
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The result paves the way for snap elections to be held on 23 February, with
polls indicating Germany could be heading for a right-wing shift in power.

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German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has lost a confidence vote in parliament, paving
the way for its dissolution and fresh national elections.

Scholz gained 207 votes in the 733-seat parliament to his name, nowhere near the
367 majority he needed to hold onto power.



The German leader was widely expected to lose the vote, which was held after the
government's acrimonious three-way coalition collapsed in spectacular fashion
over deep divisions in fiscal policy.

Scholz himself supported an early general election, but speculation was rife
ahead of the vote that the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party had
plans to sabotage an early election by voting for Scholz to stay against his
will.

President President Frank-Walter Steinmeier is now set to decide whether or not
to dissolve parliament. Once dissolved, an election must be held within 60 days.

The no-confidence vote is only the sixth in the country's post-war history. It
comes at a time when Germany's economy is suffering from two years of poor
growth and Europe braces for the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump in
the US, who has promised sweeping changes to US foreign policy.


FIERY DEBATE

The confidence vote followed a fiery parliamentary session in which the leaders
of all of the parties spoke, kickstarting their individual election campaigns as
well as throwing blame on each other for the government's demise.



Scholz heaped criticism onto the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP), who
effectively caused the ruling coalition to collapse when it removed its
ministers after Scholz fired FDP finance minister Christian Lindner.

The German leader accused the FDP of "weeks-long sabotage" and reiterated his
disagreement with its economic proposals that ultimately broke the coalition
apart. Scholz called for modernisation of Germany's constitutionally-enshrined
debt brake which restricts structural budget deficits in order to limit
government debt.

Lindner, who sat through fierce attacks against him by the German leader, said
later on that Scholz had "no strength" for fundamental change and reiterated his
policies he said were critical for Germany to revive its faltering economy.

Related
 * Are conservatives set to take back power in Germany? | Radio Schuman
 * German chancellor Olaf Scholz faces vote of confidence: What can we expect?

Elsewhere, Scholz brought up his familiar talking points of providing support
for Ukraine and justified his reluctance to send the war-torn country Taurus
missiles — his longstanding stance that has faced fierce criticism from the
opposition.



Of his tenure, Scholz concluded: "No voter could have anticipated the challenges
we would face over the last three years".

He faced heckling from the leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU),
Friedrich Merz, who gave an impassioned speech whereby he accused Scholz of
treating the FDP with "impudence" — adding fuel to rumours that the CDU might
recruit the FDP as a potential coalition partner.

Merz went so far as to say that Scholz had embarrassed Germany on the European
stage, and noted the three parties that made up the previous government "didn't
belong together at all".

His sentiment was echoed by leader of the Green party, the third party in the
now-collapsed coalition, Robert Habeck who admitted of the former government,
"We were annoyed with each other, and the traffic light coalition in many ways
deserved its bad reputation.”

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Nevertheless, Habeck accused Merz of being unable, and unwilling, to forge
consensus, in what would inevitably be a new coalition should the CDU hold on to
its projected vote share in recent polling.


WHAT'S NEXT?

Scholz is set to propose the dissolution of the Bundestag to Steinmeier who will
decide whether to do so.

Steinmeier, who indicated previously he would be willing, must then dissolve
parliament within 21 days following the request.

New elections should then be held within 60 days, as per the constitution. An
election date has been slated for the 23 February 2025, meaning Steinmeier would
have to make his decision on 27 December.

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According to the latest polling by public broadcaster ZDF, the CDU is currently
topping the polls with 33%, short of a majority.

Friedrich Merz has promised — among other things — a "fundamental change" in
migration policy including the abolishment of subsidiary protection for asylum
seekers. Such a change would involve a Europe-wide amendment to the Geneva
Convention which currently protects the right to asylum.

Merz has also proposed limiting social benefits for some asylum seekers and
outsourcing asylum procedures to non-EU countries, a policy championed by
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in Albania which has faced numerous legal
setbacks.

It is unclear which party could be part of a harmonious coalition with the CDU.
The AfD are currently in second place with 17% of the projected vote, however,
Merz has ruled out the possibility of working with them.

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The SPD have taken third place, and the Greens are polling 14%. The FDP has seen
its ratings plummet — currently holding 4% of the vote according to projections.


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EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK WARNS OF HOW A SHIFT IN US TRADE POLICIES COULD AFFECT THE
EU

People buy groceries at a Walmart Superstore in Secaucus, New Jersey, July 11,
2024. - Copyright Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Copyright 2024 The AP. All rights
reserved.
Copyright Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Copyright 2024 The AP. All rights reserved.
By Rory Elliott Armstrong with AP, EBU
Published on 16/12/2024 - 16:32 GMT+1
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Christine Lagarde also said that the ECB will continue to cut interest rates,
but that worries persisted about economic growth.

ADVERTISEMENT

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has warned US trade policies
could affect the EU economy if President-elect Donald Trump is to keep his
campaign promises.

In a conference on the 10th anniversary of Lithuania joining the eurozone,
Lagarde warned about prospects for even slower growth if the incoming US
administration imposes tariffs and if "geopolitical tensions" result in higher
energy prices and freight costs.



She also said that the bank would cut interest rates further if inflation
continued to ease towards its 2% target, which she said the policymakers were
"close to achieving."

Speaking in Vilnius on Monday after the fourth cut of 2024 last week, Lagarde
repeated her earlier assertion that if the data confirmed the bank's baseline,
"the direction of travel is clear". But in a presser ahead of her formal speech,
she told reporters she sees both upside and downside risks.

Related
 * UK economy unexpectedly shrinks in October for second straight month
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"One of the upside risks would be, for instance, if wages continued to increase
significantly, in measures that would not be compatible with our target, or if
profits were to increase substantially and not buffer the wage increases. That's
an upside risk. A downside risk might be some of the geopolitical developments,
including, for instance, the change of the American policies in relation to
trade."

Lagarde later told a Bank of Lithuania conference that keeping "sufficiently
restrictive" rates was no longer necessary, in what was interpreted as a hint
that a neutral level of interest rates is on the cards.

Inflation has fallen steeply to 2.3% from its peak of 10.6% in late 2022,
shifting attention from reigning in consumer price increases to worries about
ongoing weak growth. The eurozone is expected to grow 0.8% this year and 1.3.%
next year, according to forecasts from the European Commission.




CONCERNS AT HOME AND ABROAD

Concerns that Trump might impose new tariffs, or import taxes, on goods imported
to the US after he is inaugurated 20 January has sent a cold chill through the
business world in Europe, where exports are an outsized contributor to growth
and employment.

There are risks at home in Europe as well. French Prime Minister Michel Barnier
resigned this month after losing a vote of confidence, leaving the France
without a functioning government and no clear majority in parliament able or
willing to tackle the country’s excessive budget deficit. Elections cannot be
held before June. While the end of the Barnier government hasn't triggered a
financial crisis, it adds uncertainty about how long it will take for France to
right its finances.

On top of that, Germany's governing coalition broke up in November, and a new
national election is expected in February. Weeks of coalition negotiations are
expected to follow before a new government is in place.

So the two biggest eurozone economies will be politically adrift for months.



Video editor • Rory Elliott Armstrong

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News World


FRANCE RUSHES IN HELP TO MAYOTTE TO SUPPORT RESCUE OPERATIONS AFTER DEVASTATING
CYCLONE

This photo provided on Monday Dec.16, 2024 by the Gendarmerie Nationale, shows
members of the Gendarmerie Nationale clearing a road Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024, in
Mayotte. - Copyright AP/Copyright 2024 The AP. All rights reserved.
Copyright AP/Copyright 2024 The AP. All rights reserved.
By Emma De Ruiter with AP
Published on 16/12/2024 - 16:03 GMT+1
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French authorities said more than 800 more personnel were expected to arrive in
the coming days as rescuers comb through the devastation caused by Chido when it
hit the densely populated archipelago of around 300,000 people on Saturday.

ADVERTISEMENT

France rushed in help on Monday by ship and military aircraft to its overseas
territory of Mayotte in the Indian Ocean, after the island was shattered by its
worst storm in nearly a century.

Authorities in Mayotte fear hundreds and possibly thousands of people have died
in Cyclone Chido, although the official death toll on Monday morning stood at
14. Rescue teams and medical personnel have been sent to the island off the east
coast of Africa from France and from the nearby French territory of Reunion, as
well as tons of supplies.



French television station TF1 reported Monday morning that Interior Minister
Bruno Retailleau had arrived in Mamoudzou, the capital of Mayotte.

He told staff in Mayotte that "all means" would be mobilised to help people,
adding that "if these efforts are dispersed and if there is not an extremely
robust coordination logistics, it will be in vain."


DEVASTATION IN FRANCE'S POOREST DEPARTEMENT

French authorities said more than 800 more personnel were expected to arrive in
the coming days as rescuers comb through the devastation caused by Chido when it
hit the densely populated archipelago of around 300,000 people on Saturday.

Entire neighbourhoods have been flattened, while public infrastructure like the
main airport and hospital have been badly damaged and the electricity supply has
been knocked out, French authorities said. The damage to the airport control
tower means only military aircraft can fly into Mayotte, complicating the
response.

Mayotte is France’s poorest departement and is regarded as the poorest territory
in the European Union, but it is a target for economic migration from even
poorer countries like nearby Comoros and even Somalia because of a better
standard of living and the French welfare system.



Chido ripped through the southwestern Indian Ocean on Friday and Saturday, also
affecting the nearby islands of Comoros and Madagascar. Mayotte was directly in
the cyclone’s path, though, and took the brunt. Chido brought winds in excess of
220 kph (136 mph), according to the French weather service, making it a category
4 cyclone, the second strongest on the scale.



Video editor • Gavin Blackburn

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Scholz loses confidence vote against his government, triggering early elections

France rushes in help to Mayotte to support rescue operations after devastating
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