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NRF Forecasts


NRF FORECASTS 2023 RETAIL SALES TO GROW BETWEEN 4% AND 6%

For immediate release
March 29, 2023
press@nrf.com
(855) NRF-PRESS
Danielle Inman
Senior Director, Media Relations


WASHINGTON – The National Retail Federation today issued its annual forecast,
anticipating that retail sales will grow between 4% and 6% in 2023. In total,
NRF projects that retail sales will reach between $5.13 trillion and $5.23
trillion this year. 

> “While we expect growth to moderate in the year ahead, it will remain positive
> as retail sales stabilize to more historical levels. ”
> 
> NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay

“In just the last three years, the retail industry has experienced growth that
would normally take almost a decade by pre-pandemic standards,” NRF President
and CEO Matthew Shay said. “While we expect growth to moderate in the year
ahead, it will remain positive as retail sales stabilize to more historical
levels. Retailers are prepared to serve consumers in the current economic
environment by offering a range of products at affordable prices with great
shopping experiences.”

NRF’s annual sales forecast was announced during the third annual State of
Retail & the Consumer virtual conversation, where retail executives from major
brands, prominent economists and consumer experts discussed the health of
American consumers and the retail industry.

The 2023 figure compares with 7% annual growth to $4.9 trillion in 2022. The
2023 forecast is above the pre-pandemic, average annual retail sales growth rate
of 3.6%.



Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected
to grow between 10% and 12% year over year to a range of $1.41 trillion to $1.43
trillion. While many consumers continue to utilize the conveniences offered by
online shopping, much of that growth is driven by multichannel sales, where the
physical store still plays an important component in the fulfillment process. As
the role of brick-and-mortar stores has evolved in recent years, they remain the
primary point of purchase for consumers, accounting for approximately 70% of
total retail sales. 

NRF projects full-year GDP growth of around 1%, reflecting a slower economic
pace and half of the 2.1% increase from 2022. Inflation is on the way down but
will remain between 3% and 3.5% for all goods and services for the year.

Although the labor market has remained resilient, the trade organization
anticipates job growth to decelerate in the coming months in lockstep with
slower economic activity and the prospect of restrictive credit conditions. The
unemployment rate is likely to exceed 4% before next year.

NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz noted that aggregate economic activity has
held up well, despite restrictive monetary policy that is working purposefully
to curb inflation. He also acknowledged that recent developments in the
financial markets and banking sector as well as some unresolved public policy
issues complicate the outlook.

“While it is still too early to know the full effects of the banking industry
turmoil, consumer spending is looking quite good for the first quarter of 2023,”
Kleinhenz said. “While we expect consumers to maintain spending, a softer and
likely uneven pace is projected for the balance of the year.”

As the leading authority and voice for the retail industry, NRF provides data on
retail sales each month and also forecasts annual retail sales and spending for
key periods such as the holiday season each year.

NRF’s calculation of retail sales excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations
and restaurants to focus on core retail.

For frequently asked questions regarding NRF’s annual forecast, visit here.

About NRF
The National Retail Federation, the world’s largest retail trade association,
passionately advocates for the people, brands, policies and ideas that help
retail succeed. From its headquarters in Washington, D.C., NRF empowers the
industry that powers the economy. Retail is the nation’s largest private-sector
employer, contributing $3.9 trillion to annual GDP and supporting one in four
U.S. jobs – 52 million working Americans. For over a century, NRF has been a
voice for every retailer and every retail job, educating, inspiring and
communicating the powerful impact retail has on local communities and global
economies.

Forecasts, NRF forecast, Retail sales, Economy, Consumer Spending


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NRF 2023 Annual Retail Sales Forecast FAQ
 

Answers to frequently asked questions about the NRF's annual sales forecast for
2023.
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consumer and retail industry.
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