unctad.org Open in urlscan Pro
2606:4700:10::ac43:1b30  Public Scan

Form analysis
1 forms found in the DOM

GET /search

<form id="unctad-search-form" method="GET" class="views-exposed-form" action="/search">
  <div class="form--inline form-inline clearfix">
    <div class="input-group input-group-sm my-2">
      <label for="siteSearch" class="sr-only">Search</label>
      <input id="siteSearch" type="text" name="keys" class="form-control rounded-start" placeholder="Search" aria-label="Search" size="38">
      <button class="button js-form-submit form-submit btn icon-before" type="submit" value="Search" title="Search"><span class="icon glyphicon glyphicon-search" aria-hidden="true"></span></button>
    </div>
  </div>
</form>

Text Content

Skip to main content
MACHINE NAME = WEB 2
Welcome to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
EnglishFrançaisEspañol
UNCTAD Prosperity for all
Connect with us
 * 
 * 
 * 
 * 
 * 
 * 

Search
Toggle navigation


MAIN NAVIGATION

 * About
 * Topics
 * Projects
 * Publications
 * Meetings
 * Statistics
 * Global crisis
 * UNCTAD15
 * Media centre

 *  Delegate Home
 *  Login  


MAIN NAVIGATION RIGHT

 1. Home
 2. News
 3. Global trade expected to shrink by nearly 5% in 2023 amid geopolitical
    strains and shifting trade patterns


GLOBAL TRADE EXPECTED TO SHRINK BY NEARLY 5% IN 2023 AMID GEOPOLITICAL STRAINS
AND SHIFTING TRADE PATTERNS

12 December 2023

GLOBAL TRADE IS PROJECTED TO END THE YEAR 5% DOWN COMPARED TO 2022’S RECORD
LEVEL, SHRINKING BY ABOUT $1.5 TRILLION TO BELOW $31 TRILLION, ACCORDING TO
UNCTAD’S LATEST GLOBAL TRADE UPDATE.



© Shutterstock/s_oleg

The outlook for 2024 remains “highly uncertain and generally pessimistic,”
UNCTAD says in the Global Trade Update released on 11 December, citing factors
like ongoing geopolitical tensions, escalating debt, and widespread economic
fragility.

Other elements weighing on trade include lower demand in developed countries,
less trade in East Asia, an uptick in trade-restrictive measures, commodity
price volatility and lengthening supply chains, particularly between China and
the United States.

However, the report notes a few positive trends in 2023.


Your browser does not support JavaScript!
Your browser does not support JavaScript!

These include a slight increase in trade volumes, suggesting resilient global
demand for imports, and a $500 billion increase in trade in services. The sector
grew by 7% in 2023 thanks in part to a delayed COVID-19 recovery.

Also, some developing economies, particularly Mexico and East Asian countries,
have had opportunities to better integrate the supply chains affected by
geopolitical concerns.

FRIEND-SHORING IS A GROWING TREND

The report shows that global trade patterns are increasingly influenced by
geopolitics, with countries showing preferences for politically aligned trade
partners, a trend termed "friend-shoring".


Your browser does not support JavaScript!
Your browser does not support JavaScript!

The trend has become more pronounced since late 2022. Meanwhile, the
geographical proximity in international trade — nearshoring or far-shoring — has
remained relatively stable.

The report also highlights a marked increase in trade concentration. “There has
been an overall decrease in the diversification of trade partners, indicating a
concentration of global trade within major trade relationships.”

TRADE-RESTRICTIVE MEASURES ON THE RISE

The Global Trade Update notes a significant uptick in 2023 in trade-restrictive
measures, especially non-tariff measures (NTMs).

It says the increase is driven by a resurgence of industrial policies and the
pressing need for countries to fulfill climate commitments. These factors have
prompted countries to favor policies that support domestic industries and reduce
reliance on foreign supply chains.

Another recent UNCTAD report, Trade regulations for climate action, identified
2,366 climate change-related NTMs affecting 3.5% of all potentially tradable
goods and covering 26.4% of global trade.

“These inward-looking policies are anticipated to impede the growth of
international trade,” the Global Trade Update says.

A MIXED PICTURE FOR THE MAIN SECTORS

UNCTAD’s latest update on global trade presents a mixed picture across economic
sectors.

The report shows a decline in 2023 for office and communication equipment (-17),
textiles (-13%) and apparel (-11%).

In contrast, sectors like road vehicles and transport equipment have seen growth
rates of 13% and 25%, respectively. However, the positive yearly trend in these
sectors took a downturn in the third quarter of 2023.

Looking to 2024, the commodities sector faces continued uncertainty due to
persistent regional conflicts and geopolitical tensions. The growing need to
secure critical minerals, vital for the energy transition, is expected to add to
volatility in these markets.


RELATED


STORIES

6 Dec 2023
Digital trade fuels Asia-Pacific’s growth, but progress is uneven

4 Dec 2023
Clean energy minerals: Developing countries must add value to capitalize on
demand

1 Nov 2023
Decades-old South-South trade deal offers new hope for sustainable future



TOPICS

Trade analysis

Trade and environment

Statistics



PROGRAMME

 * Data, Statistics and Trends in International Trade


KEYWORDS

Goal 13 Climate Action
International Trade Data
Non-tariff measures
Trade Analysis
United Nations Conference
on Trade and Development


FOOTER MENU

 * DELEGATES
 * CIVIL SOCIETY
 * JOURNALISTS
 * Technical Cooperation
 * Careers

Connect with us
 * 
 * 
 * 
 * 
 * 
 * 

UNCTAD - Palais des Nations, 8-14, Av. de la Paix, 1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland

© Copyright | Privacy notice | Terms of use
Signup for our Newsletter

Insert your email address


ShareThis Copy and Paste