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資訊
The bulls are "fueled" by multiple good news, and gold is approaching $2,560.
2024-09-13 05:25:40

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released a report Thursday that showed the
final-demand producer price index rose 0.2% from a month earlier, following a
downward revision to July's data. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of
economists was for a 0.1% increase.




The number of first-time applicants for unemployment benefits rose by 2,000 to
230,000 in the week ended Sept. 7, according to data released Thursday by the
U.S. Department of Labor. A Bloomberg survey of economists showed that the
median number of first-time applicants for unemployment relief was 226,000.




Earlier on Thursday, the European Central Bank cut interest rates for the second
time this year as inflation fell back to 2% and economic worries intensified.
This pushed up the euro against the U.S. dollar and weighed on the dollar's
strength index.




Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank, said: "The ECB rate cut,
a small increase in applications for unemployment benefits and a rise in the PPI
were enough to push the gold price to new highs."




Swap traders have confirmed that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by
a quarter of a percentage point at next week's meeting after the August Consumer
Goods Index was released on Wednesday.




Hansen added that for the gold market, "the start of a rate-cutting cycle could
add support," regardless of the magnitude of the cut. Lower interest rates are
usually good for non-interest-bearing gold.

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The price of gold is going crazy! Gold keeps hitting new highs, hits $2,555...
Weak US economic data 'proof' of low interest rate era?
2024-09-13 01:27:52

The US Department of Labor announced that the number of first-time applicants
for unemployment benefits increased by 2,000 to 230,000 on a seasonally adjusted
basis.




Producer prices in the US rose slightly more than expected in August due to
higher service costs, but remained in line with the retreating trend in
inflation.




Alex Ebkarian, Allegiance Gold's Chief Operating Officer, said, "We're heading
towards a low interest rate environment, so gold is becoming more attractive
...... I think we're probably going to be cutting rates more frequently, not
more sharply. "




The CME's FedWatch tool shows that the market now expects the Fed to have an 85%
chance of cutting rates by 25 basis points and a 15% chance of cutting rates by
50 basis points at its Sept. 17-18 meeting.




In a lower interest rate scenario, zero-yield gold is often the investment of
choice.




Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, said, "The labor
market continues to be depressed, and if the labor market deteriorates, then the
process of cutting rates will continue for a long time."

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U.S. CPI sent gold down nearly $30 during the day, and here's why!
2024-09-12 08:43:32

Gold prices fell on Wednesday, as the U.S. CPI report prompted investors to
lower expectations for the Federal Reserve Board to cut interest rates
significantly next week, leading to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar and
U.S. bond yields, gold prices under pressure.




The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday that the U.S. Consumer
Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in August, in line with market expectations. The
U.S. CPI rose 2.5% annually in August, the fifth consecutive month of decline,
in line with market expectations, lower than the previous value of 2.9%.




However, it is worth noting that the U.S. core CPI rose 0.3% quarterly in
August, the largest increase in four months, higher than the expected 0.2%.
Economists believe that the core inflation rate is a better indicator of
potential inflation than the overall CPI. U.S. core CPI rose 3.2% in August, in
line with forecasts.




Institutional analysts believe that the higher-than-expected U.S. core inflation
data will become a 50 basis points next Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Board to
cut interest rates. The immediate focus is on the monthly core CPI data, which
tends to increase concerns about stubborn inflation. Those on the FOMC who are
concerned that monetary policy is moving too fast or too decisively will surely
vigorously oppose a 50 basis point cut next week.




Commenting on the U.S. CPI report, Neil Birrell, chief investment officer of
Premier Miton Investors, said that the likelihood of the FOMC cutting interest
rates by 50 basis points next week has been dealt a major blow by the figure.




According to the CME's FedWatch tool, the market now expects an 87% chance that
the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points next week, compared with a 71% chance
before the data was released.




After the CPI data showed that the Fed will probably only cut rates by 25 bps in
September, the USD Index surged in a short period of time, recovering all of its
lost ground during the day and at one point rising to an intraday high of
101.82. The US Dollar Index finally closed about 0.1% higher at 101.75.




Spot gold fell sharply to US$2,500.74/oz after the release of the U.S. CPI data,
down nearly US$30 from the intraday high of US$2,529.13/oz.




Gold prices then rebounded from the lows. Spot gold ended down 0.2% at
$2,511.28/oz on Wednesday.




According to Christian Borjon Valencia, Analyst at FXStreet, gold prices
retreated from Wednesday's high of $2,529/oz after US inflation data raised the
possibility of a 25 bps rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Non-gold was under
pressure from rising US bond rates and a stronger US dollar. The 10-year U.S.
bond yield climbed 1.5 basis points to 3.655%.




Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said: "Inflation is
still there, consumers are still feeling it, and if the Federal Reserve cuts
interest rates by 50 basis points, it will show that they will concede to
inflation, and at this juncture, the Federal Reserve was almost forced to cut
interest rates by only 25 basis points.




TaiWong, an independent metals trader in New York, said, "The rise in core CPI
will more or less reinforce the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut by the
Fed next week, and gold may have to wait a little longer for prices to refresh
their all-time highs."

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