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Energy


OECD RAISES GLOBAL GROWTH OUTLOOK ON US STRENGTH

By Leigh Thomas
February 5, 202411:06 AM GMT+1Updated 10 months ago
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Containers in the Port of Rotterdam are seen in Rotterdam, Netherlands, November
1, 2022. REUTERS/Piroschka van de Wouw/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights,
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 * Summary

 * OECD raises US growth outlook, cuts euro zone
 * OECD sees Fed rate cut in Q2, ECB in Q3
 * Red Sea attacks could boost CPI 0.4 points

PARIS, Feb 5 (Reuters) - The global economy is on course to hold up better this
year than expected only a few months ago as an improved outlook in the United
States offsets euro zone weakness, the OECD said on Monday.
World economic growth is expected to ease from 3.1% in 2023 to 2.9% this year,
better than the 2.7% expected in November in the Organisation for Economic
Cooperation and Development's last outlook.
In an update of its forecasts for major economies, the Paris-based OECD left its
2025 global estimate unchanged at 3.0%, when growth is expected to be boosted by
major central banks rate cuts as inflation pressures subside.
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The U.S. economy was expected to grow 2.1% in 2024 and 1.7% in 2025 as lower
inflation boosted wage growth and triggers interest rate cuts, the OECD said,
raising its 2024 forecast from 1.5% previously and leaving 2025 unchanged.
As China contends with real estate market wobbles and weak consumer confidence,
its growth was seen slowing from 5.2% in 2023 to 4.7% in 2024 and to 4.2% in
2025, all unchanged from November forecasts.
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With a slowdown in Germany weighing on the broader euro area, the shared
currency bloc's outlook had worsened since November, with its economy now
expected pick up from 0.5% last year to only to 0.6% this year, down from 0.9%
previously. In 2025, it was seen growing 1.3%, revised down from 1.5%.

Reuters Graphics
While economic outlooks diverged among the major economies, inflation was
cooling faster than expected since November in both the United States and euro
area while unchanged in China.

That paved the way for rate cuts with the U.S. Federal Reserve expected to move
in the second quarter and the European Central Bank to follow in the third
quarter.
However, attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes could add to inflationary pressures,
albeit modestly, the OECD said.
It estimated that if a surge in shipping costs persisted annual OECD import
price inflation could increase by close to 5 percentage points, adding 0.4
percentage points to consumer price inflation after about a year.


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Reporting by Leigh Thomas; Editing by Toby Chopra

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