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March 2024
Market Review & OutlookGlobal equity markets overall were positive for the
month. Select emerging
equity markets outperformed the developed markets. The US equities gained
on account of overall resilient corporate earnings trends. The Magnificent Seven
(Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta and Tesla) continued to
contribute to the returns with stronger earnings results and optimism around
the potential of artificial intelligence. European markets rose on regional and
global cues, an improvement in composite PMI and easing of inflation. The
markets there were supported by consumer discretionary, industrial, and
technology sectors. The Japanese markets continued to be among the top
performers based on stronger corporate earnings and continued FPI
investments. Over the last year, Japan has been the best performing large stock
market in the world. The Chinese markets were the top performers for the
month after a long period due to optimism related to Lunar New Year holiday
spending and some positive measures from the government.
Domestic Market Performance (Feb 2024)Global market performance (Feb 2024)
The Nity 50 index gained 1.2% in February 2024. The large cap and broader
indices were positive and outperformed the midcap and small cap indices for
the month. The Nifty 50 scaled new highs for the month due to broad-based
buying across sectors. The optimism over fiscal prudence seen in the interim
budget, easing domestic inflation and strong GDP growth data for Q3FY24
following favorable macroeconomic indicators aided market sentiments. The
Nifty Midcap 150 Index (-0.3%) and Nifty Smallcap 250 (-0. 6%) moderated
during the month.
Brent crude oil rose for the month due to ongoing Middle East tensions, and
discussion of an extended voluntary cut in oil production affected the markets.
Macroeconomic indicators:
USD INR
From the closing level of the previous month, the rupee appreciated by 0.2% to
close at USD/INR 82.91. In the month of February 2024, Dollar Index (DXY)
gained 0.9%.
INR per USD
Forex reserves
Forex exchange reserves rose by 0.4% to US$ 619 billion. This reserve covers
around 10 months of projected imports for 2023-24.
Crude oil prices – Brent
Brent Crude USD/BBL
Commodity price trend
-0.35
-0.01
0.12
0.23
0.98
0.99
1.50
2.08
2.22
3.54
3.85
4.17
4.58
4.63
5.17
5.52
5.82
6.12
6.63
6.89
7.94
8.13
Singapore Straits Times
FTSE 100
Russia RTS
S&P/ASX 200
Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index
Brazil Bovespa
Jakarta Composite
FTSE Eurotop 100
Dow Jones
CAC 40
MSCI AC Asia Pacific
MSCI AC World Index
Xetra DAX
MSCI Emerging Markets
S&P 500
MSCI AC ASIA ex JAPAN
KOSPI
Nasdaq
Hang Seng
Taiwan Taiex
Nikkei
SSE Composite
-2.24
-1.09
-0.36
-0.30
0.39
0.88
1.04
1.18
1.28
1.45
1.48
1.51
1.74
1.92
1.95
2.15
2.82
3.74
4.31
5.96
6.34
6.42
6.75
S&P BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods
S&P BSE SmallCap
S&P BSE Finance
Nifty Midcap 150
S&P BSE Metal
S&P BSE Bankex
S&P BSE Sensex
Nifty 50
S&P BSE Capital Goods
Nifty 500
S&P BSE MidCap
S&P BSE 500
S&P BSE Consumer Durables
S&P BSE 200
S&P BSE TECK
NIFTY 100
S&P BSE Information Technology
S&P BSE Healthcare
S&P BSE Power
S&P BSE PSU
S&P BSE REALTY
S&P BSE Auto
S&P BSE OIL & GAS
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
Apr-23
Jun-23
Aug-23
Oct-23
Dec-23
Feb-24
0.23
2.34
-2.44
-5.41
-1.16
G O L D C R U D E ( B R E N T ) A L U M I N I U M Z I N C
( $ / M E T . T O N )
C O P P E R ( $ / L B S )
71.50
73.50
75.50
77.50
79.50
81.50
83.50
85.50
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
Apr-23
Jun-23
Aug-23
Oct-23
Dec-23
Feb-24
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Feb-03
Feb-04
Feb-05
Feb-06
Feb-07
Feb-08
Feb-09
Feb-10
Feb-11
Feb-12
Feb-13
Feb-14
Feb-15
Feb-16
Feb-17
Feb-18
Feb-19
Feb-20
Feb-21
Feb-22
Feb-23
Feb-24
FX Reserves (US$, Bn)

March 2024
Market Review & OutlookPMI Indicators GST Collection
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index ("PMI"), expanded for the
second consecutive month on account of robust demand from domestic and
international markets and a reduction in input price inflation, which was
positive for the manufacturers from a margin point of view. Services PMI
moderated for the month on account of softer growth in new orders and output.
GST collections for February 2024 stood at INR 1.68 trn. up nearly 13% YoY.
The Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) inflation on a YoY basis moderated to 5.1%
in January 2024 from 5.7% in December 2023, largely due to favourable base
effect. Core inflation slid further to 3.6% in January 2024, moderation here was
largely broad-based.
Inflation Industrial production
Industrial production rose as it came in at 3.8% (YoY) in December 2023, after
declining in the previous month, mostly due to the improvement in the
manufacturing sector and across broad-based categories excluding primary
goods.
FII/DII equity flows
DIIs were the net buyers for the month of February 2024.
Domestic Interest rate trend
RBI kept policy rates unchanged at 6.50% and decided to remain focused on
withdrawal of accommodation while ensuring that inflation progressively
aligns with the target while supporting growth. The decision to hold rates and
the monetary policy stance was backed by 5 out of 6 members. In both the
instances Prof. Jayanth R. Varma voted to reduce the policy repo rate by 25bps
and the policy stance to neutral.
5.10%
3.50%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
Jan-19
Jul-19
Dec-19
May-20
Sep-20
Mar-21
Jul-21
Dec-21
May-22
Oct-22
Mar-23
Aug-23
Jan-24
%YoY CPI Inflation Core inflation
RBI Inflation Target Band
-80.0%
-60.0%
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
Dec-13
Jun-14
Dec-14
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Dec-17
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-19
Dec-19
Jun-20
Dec-20
Jun-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Dec-23
Industrial Production growth
Industrial Production growth YoY 3MMA Industrial production
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
Feb-14
Aug-14
Feb-15
Aug-15
Feb-16
Aug-16
Feb-17
Aug-17
Feb-18
Aug-18
Feb-19
Aug-19
Feb-20
Aug-20
Feb-21
Aug-21
Feb-22
Aug-22
Feb-23
Aug-23
Feb-24
Manufacturing PMI 3 MMA Services PMI 3MMA
1675 1870
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Oct-23
Nov-23
Dec-23
Jan-24
Feb-24
68500
69000
69500
70000
70500
71000
71500
72000
72500
73000
73500
74000
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Jan-24 Feb-24
FPI DII flows
Cummulative DII flows INR Cr Cummulative FII flows INR Cr Sensex RHS
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Feb-16
May-16
Aug-16
Nov-16
Feb-17
May-17
Aug-17
Nov-17
Feb-18
May-18
Aug-18
Nov-18
Feb-19
May-19
Aug-19
Nov-19
Feb-20
May-20
Aug-20
Nov-20
Feb-21
May-21
Aug-21
Nov-21
Feb-22
May-22
Aug-22
Nov-22
Feb-23
May-23
Aug-23
Nov-23
Feb-24
10 year benchmark yield Reverse Repo/ SDF
Repo Rate Cash Reserve Ratio
Marginal Standing Facility



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