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Home Financial Literacy This “True” Market Indicator Leads to Huge Gains


THIS “TRUE” MARKET INDICATOR LEADS TO HUGE GAINS


written by Alpesh Patel Friday, May 20, 2022


Editor’s Note: You’re in for a treat today… Our friend Alpesh Patel could be one
of the most famed investors to ever grace the pages of Wealthy Retirement.

He started his own hedge fund… is a bestselling author and entrepreneur… and is
a Dealmaker for the queen of England.

He just launched a brand-new initiative in the U.S. We’ve nabbed you a sneak
peek at the powerful strategy he’s used to wallop the market by 580% over the
past five years. It’s a secret that’s usually been reserved for ultra-wealthy
investors – until now.

Check out Alpesh’s new project here.

– Kyle Wehrle, Assistant Managing Editor

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Let me share with you a unique indicator that could boost your chances of
scoring some big gains.

It’s one of my personal favorites.

It’s a metric that’s not as well known as price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio or even
discounted cash flow, but it’s behind the advice given by two of the world’s
largest wealth management firms to their wealthiest clients.

Deutsche Bank invented it. Goldman Sachs Private Wealth Management uses it
extensively in its stock selection.

Cash return on capital invested (CROCI) may not sound like an important cause of
stock returns…

But using this formula consistently leads to reliable 30% annual returns.

I first learned about it at a lunch presentation at Goldman Sachs Private Wealth
Management. I was seated next to then-Chairman Jim O’Neill when the company’s
quantum division (cool name, eh?) made its presentation.

My jaw dropped. I kept the slides (and still have them!).

Now, not every stock with a good score will generate 30% returns… After all, a
tailwind boosts returns, while a financial crisis evaporates them. And some
sectors do better than others – like oil, mining, auto, capital goods, consumer
staples, discretionary retail and tech.

I’ve been using this formula since 2010, based on data from the preceding
decade. Through bull and bear markets and corrections, it’s the secret sauce
that takes a portfolio from good to great.

As the so-called Robin Hood of financial advice (taking ideas from the rich and
sharing them with the poor), I’d like to let you in on this powerful hedge fund
secret… and show you why it leads to such astonishing returns.


SHOW ME THE MONEY

In the simplest terms, CROCI measures how much cash a company produces on the
capital it has had invested in it. It’s a measure of efficiency. It’s harder to
manipulate cash than it is to manipulate earnings or profits. So CROCI paints a
truer picture.

The higher the CROCI, the better. (In fact, I only invest in companies with a
CROCI score of 10 or higher.)

It’s almost obvious: Companies that produce more cash on the capital they have
perform better. They produce more cash by generating more sales and having fewer
expenses. For example, if you don’t need to spend lots of money on capital goods
(e.g., airplanes), can use the same machinery for years, have fewer staff
members and generate lots of sales (demand)… you get more cash.

But of course, that is also too simple. High-return companies trade at a
persistent and substantial premium… yet have significantly outperformed as their
assets and cash flows have grown.

Let me explain…

The market is willing to pay a premium for companies with high cash growth.
(After all, cash is king.) When we look at the trend of the average top 25% and
the average bottom 25% of CROCI companies by measuring their gross cash
invested, companies with low cash returns tend to generate slower growth, and –
no surprise – companies with high cash returns tend to generate faster and more
sustained growth.

Research shows that while companies with high cash returns are relatively
expensive, they outperform nevertheless. Yet most investors think such companies
won’t continue growing and are too expensive.

That’s simply not the case.

This is a hugely important idea.

A structurally well-positioned company should sustain outstanding earnings over
multiple years. Assuming it does, the market will continue to value it at a
premium.

There is, therefore, an inherent “valuation opportunity” in owning long-term
leaders over longer-term holding periods.


TRIPLE-DIGIT GAINS

That’s why, in just the past two years, I’ve achieved triple-digit gains from
stocks like Etsy (Nasdaq: ETSY), Crocs (Nasdaq: CROX) and Best of the Best (LSE:
BOTB).

Each of these companies had a good CROCI score. Each was in the top 15% of all
companies measured and ranked by CROCI.

They also had good P/E ratios, good sales growth and consistent momentum. But by
further narrowing down by CROCI, we were able to laser-focus on these companies
in particular… and they soon became market winners.

Etsy – the online marketplace for creators of handmade arts, crafts and other
home goods – was able to generate lots of profits as its sales were boosted by
lockdown buyers.

Those cash sales translated to profits because the company churns out a lot of
cash relative to the amount of capital it invests. It is an efficient maker of
money. In other words, it is good at turning income into profits because its
expenses are low.

For Best of the Best – an online lifestyle competition platform – lockdown
viewers started playing the types of games it features more often.

But this wasn’t a gamble on consumer behavior.

We knew that once sales increased, they would have an outsized impact on
profits. That’s because the company had a high CROCI (again, that means it’s
good at converting cash into profits).

Crocs was a similar case. During the lockdown, people wanted comfort, and the
company’s Instagram campaign boosted sales.

We didn’t know the company would launch a campaign or how people would react to
it, but we knew it had a great CROCI score. Once we saw sales come in, we knew
they would exceed expectations because the company converts sales into profits
more efficiently than companies with lower CROCI scores.

It’s pretty simple… and highly effective.

These are just a few of the countless wins I’ve uncovered thanks to using CROCI.

By drilling down into what really moves a stock, you can use one of the biggest
hedge fund secrets to achieve truly great returns.

But even better, this is the strategy I use in my elite research service, GVI
Investor. And right now, you have the opportunity to join us. See this tool in
action and learn how you can become a subscriber right here.

Happy hunting,

Alpesh




SHOULD YOU INVEST IN THIS DIVIDEND STOCK RIGHT NOW?

There's not a single dividend stock I like more than the one I'm giving away for
free today.

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Last year, this company's stellar drug sales allowed it to pay shareholders $8.8
billion in dividends. The best part? That dividend is increasing by 20% per
year!

Click here to get my No. 1 dividend stock as part of my FREE Ultimate Dividend
Package.


Discounted cash flow


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