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Mason Greenwood’s Man United futureEarly Premier League player of the year
contendersPochettino is ready to fight at Chelsea
MLB
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LAD
3
TEX
2

Mid 6
KC
6
SEA
5

End 6
LAA
1
COL
3

Bot 6
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6
MIL
1

FAC
90'+5'
LIV
3
SOU
0
FT,
Feb. 28
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3
LEE
2
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Feb. 28
WOL
1
BHA
0
FT,
Feb. 28
NFO
0
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1
NHL
Final/OT,
Feb. 27
PIT
4
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3
Final,
Feb. 27
NJ
7
SJ
2
4:00pm
CBJ
19-28-10
NYR
39-17-3
5:30pm
STL
30-26-2
EDM
34-20-2
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35-24
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36
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11
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21-6
4
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21-6
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18-9
5
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21-6
7:00pm
6
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21-6
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14-14
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4:00pm
3
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26-3
20
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20-7
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17-11
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24-3
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17-10
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Feb. 27
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ARSENAL’S FAILURE TO SIGN MUDRYK AND CAICEDO FELT DAMAGING BUT HAS BEEN A
BLESSING IN DISGUISE


By James McNicholas
Feb 27, 2024

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As Liverpool paraded their Carabao Cup success, among Chelsea’s “blue
billion-pound bottlejobs” were £200million-worth of talent who, but for some
unexpected twists of the transfer market, might be wearing Arsenal red.

In the January transfer window of 2023, Mykhailo Mudryk and Moises Caicedo were
both wanted by Arsenal. Chelsea pipped them to the signing of the Ukrainian, so
Arsenal turned their attention to Caicedo. Their failure to agree a January deal
with Brighton & Hove Albion — and the decision to return their focus to their
primary target, Declan Rice — allowed Chelsea to sign Caicedo last summer.

GO DEEPER

Exclusive: Why Mudryk joined Chelsea not Arsenal – by Shakhtar's CEO

Many Arsenal supporters were initially frustrated about losing both players to a
London rival, particularly in the case of Mudryk. That was a transfer saga that
unfurled over months, with the player publicly expressing his admiration for
Arsenal and manager Mikel Arteta via social media.

Having failed to land Mudryk or Caicedo, however, Arsenal pivoted to sign
Leandro Trossard and Jorginho. As Chelsea’s mega-signings have struggled to make
an impact, Trossard and Jorginho have become hugely valuable members of the
Arsenal squad. The inability to sign Caicedo left room in the squad and budget
to pursue Rice, who has been instrumental since arriving at the Emirates
Stadium.

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Brighton were none-too-impressed with Arsenal’s negotiation tactics in the talks
over Caicedo, but had Arsenal successfully brokered a deal for the Ecuador
international, paying a further £105million ($133m) for Rice would have been
improbable. There is an alternate reality in which Manchester City were granted
a free run at the former West Ham United captain. With Rice in their ranks, the
Premier League might already be a procession.



As Liverpool celebrated their cup success, Arsenal fans took to social media to
crow about two blue bullets dodged.

Arsenal have undoubtedly had the better return on their investments thus far.
Mudryk and Caicedo could ultimately cost Chelsea £203.5m in transfer fees alone.
Trossard and Jorginho cost a combined £39m. Even Rice came in £10m cheaper than
Caicedo’s British record fee of £115m.

But it would be too simplistic to put this down to foresight on Arsenal’s
behalf. They really wanted Mudryk and Caicedo. In the case of the Ukraine
forward, Arsenal were prepared to smash their transfer record by matching
Chelsea’s €100m (£86m, $109m) offer, albeit with a different payment schedule
and add-ons that Shakhtar Donetsk considered less realistic.

Technical director Edu and Arteta were utterly convinced of Mudryk’s talent.
They believed he could provide them with a third flying winger to complement
Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka.

And perhaps, had he arrived at Arsenal, we would be watching a very different
player. The step from Ukrainian football to the Premier League is steep, but
Arsenal had a clear plan for the winger. They knew he would require patience and
development. Who knows how Mudryk might have fared in a more stable environment
and a more established tactical model than what he walked into at Stamford
Bridge?

Throughout the saga, Mudryk did not hide his preferred destination. When the
deal did not materialise, Arsenal’s understanding was that the player was
devastated. You can’t help but wonder how different things might be had he got
the move he wanted. Mudryk still has admirers at Arsenal, who believe his
audacious talent can still be unlocked. Whether it will ever happen in the
Premier League is another question and as far as joining Arsenal goes, that ship
appears to have sailed.

Advertisement



As for Caicedo, while he has been adequate at Chelsea, he certainly hasn’t come
close to justifying his enormous transfer fee — or to emulating Rice’s dominant
performances for Arsenal.

There are lessons to be learned here. The first is the importance of a good
backup plan. Arsenal deserve credit for pivoting swiftly to Trossard and
Jorginho. It can be dangerous to attach too much importance to a particular
transfer target — you run the risk of overpaying or even ending up with nothing.


Jorginho and Leandro Trossard have both made significant impacts at Arsenal
(Stuart MacFarlane/Arsenal FC via Getty Images)

Then there’s the value of a known quantity. Mudryk had relatively little senior
football experience. Caicedo had impressed in the Premier League but was still
only 21 when Chelsea made him the most expensive player in British football.
Trossard, Jorginho and Rice are all older, more established performers. There is
a reason clubs target young players — they have room to develop and retain or
increase their value — at least in theory. In practice, there can be a real
benefit to balancing that by recruiting experienced, mature players.

And finally, there is the peculiar alchemy of any transfer. Even in this world
of advanced scouting and data analytics, there is still a certain degree of risk
in any deal. However convinced a club may be about a player’s talent, it remains
impossible to accurately predict how that talent will react to a change in
environment. It’s what makes these £100m deals so perilous — you’re paying an
enormous premium for a performance level you can’t guarantee.

Perhaps Arsenal did dodge a couple of bullets here, but they didn’t feel like
that at the time. There was considerable internal disappointment at their
failure to land both players.

Arsenal have been rightly praised for their transfer strategy, but sometimes you
just get lucky.

(Top photos: Getty Images)




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