www.fitchratings.com Open in urlscan Pro
13.33.187.124  Public Scan

Form analysis
0 forms found in the DOM

Text Content

Skip to main content

 * People
 * Product
 * Insights

Contact Us

Non-Rating Action Commentary


GREATER CHINA TO BEAR BRUNT OF RISING US TRADE PROTECTIONISM IN 2025

Wed 11 Dec, 2024 - 19:59 ET



Related Content: Greater China Sovereign Outlook 2025

Fitch Ratings-Hong Kong-11 December 2024: Risks from a likely escalation in
trade and geopolitical tensions following the US elections raise downsides for
economies in Greater China and inject uncertainty to the region’s economic
outlook, Fitch Ratings says.

Rising external challenges are likely to lead to a further erosion of Mainland
China’s fiscal metrics as policy measures are advanced, but external buffers
will provide some resilience. We revised the Outlook on China’s ‘A+’ rating to
Negative in April 2024, to reflect an ongoing fiscal deterioration. Fiscal and
external buffers remain heathy across the rest of the region in Hong Kong, Macao
and Taiwan, and can help mitigate risks, though they may come under some
pressure.

External pressures will be particularly acute for Mainland China, at a time when
the domestic economy is still finding its footing amid ongoing property sector
challenges, subdued household confidence and consumption, and deflationary
pressures. We expect the recent intensification of policy response to economic
growth challenges to be sustained in 2025. Fiscal policy will likely be a key
tool for trying to stabilise the property market and offsetting external and
domestic headwinds, keeping growth at around 4.3%, but driving wider fiscal
deficits and higher government debt.

Taiwan and Hong Kong are highly exposed to rising US trade protectionism,
directly through a rise in tariffs and indirectly through spillovers from higher
tariffs on Mainland China. We forecast Taiwan’s growth to moderate to 2.6% in
2025 from 4.3% with the advanced semiconductor industry providing some
mitigants. In Hong Kong, we expect growth will improve to 2.8% in 2025 from 2.5%
as a recovery in domestic demand from rate cuts mitigates tariff pressures. US
tariff hikes and geopolitical tensions pose downside risks to the territory’s
economic and fiscal outlook.

"Greater China Sovereigns Outlook 2025" is available at fitchratings.com or by
clicking the link above.

Contact:

Jeremy Zook
Director
+852 2263 9944
jeremy.zook@fitchratings.com
Fitch (Hong Kong) Limited
19/F Man Yee Building 60-68 Des Voeux Road
Central Hong Kong

George Xu
Director
+852 2263 9629
george.xu@fitchratings.com







Media Relations: Peter Hoflich, Singapore, Tel: +65 6796 7229, Email:
peter.hoflich@thefitchgroup.com
Jack Li, Beijing, Tel: +86 10 5957 0964, Email: jack.li@thefitchgroup.com
Vivian Kam, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9612, Email: vivian.kam@thefitchgroup.com

Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com


All Fitch Ratings (Fitch) credit ratings are subject to certain limitations and
disclaimers. Please read these limitations and disclaimers by following this
link: https://www.fitchratings.com/understandingcreditratings. In addition, the
following https://www.fitchratings.com/rating-definitions-document details
Fitch's rating definitions for each rating scale and rating categories,
including definitions relating to default. Published ratings, criteria, and
methodologies are available from this site at all times. Fitch's code of
conduct, confidentiality, conflicts of interest, affiliate firewall, compliance,
and other relevant policies and procedures are also available from the Code of
Conduct section of this site. Directors and shareholders’ relevant interests are
available at https://www.fitchratings.com/site/regulatory. Fitch may have
provided another permissible or ancillary service to the rated entity or its
related third parties. Details of permissible or ancillary service(s) for which
the lead analyst is based in an ESMA- or FCA-registered Fitch Ratings company
(or branch of such a company) can be found on the entity summary page for this
issuer on the Fitch Ratings website.
In issuing and maintaining its ratings and in making other reports (including
forecast information), Fitch relies on factual information it receives from
issuers and underwriters and from other sources Fitch believes to be credible.
Fitch conducts a reasonable investigation of the factual information relied upon
by it in accordance with its ratings methodology, and obtains reasonable
verification of that information from independent sources, to the extent such
sources are available for a given security or in a given jurisdiction. The
manner of Fitch's factual investigation and the scope of the third-party
verification it obtains will vary depending on the nature of the rated security
and its issuer, the requirements and practices in the jurisdiction in which the
rated security is offered and sold and/or the issuer is located, the
availability and nature of relevant public information, access to the management
of the issuer and its advisers, the availability of pre-existing third-party
verifications such as audit reports, agreed-upon procedures letters, appraisals,
actuarial reports, engineering reports, legal opinions and other reports
provided by third parties, the availability of independent and competent third-
party verification sources with respect to the particular security or in the
particular jurisdiction of the issuer, and a variety of other factors. Users of
Fitch's ratings and reports should understand that neither an enhanced factual
investigation nor any third-party verification can ensure that all of the
information Fitch relies on in connection with a rating or a report will be
accurate and complete. Ultimately, the issuer and its advisers are responsible
for the accuracy of the information they provide to Fitch and to the market in
offering documents and other reports. In issuing its ratings and its reports,
Fitch must rely on the work of experts, including independent auditors with
respect to financial statements and attorneys with respect to legal and tax
matters. Further, ratings and forecasts of financial and other information are
inherently forward-looking and embody assumptions and predictions about future
events that by their nature cannot be verified as facts. As a result, despite
any verification of current facts, ratings and forecasts can be affected by
future events or conditions that were not anticipated at the time a rating or
forecast was issued or affirmed.
The information in this report is provided 'as is' without any representation or
warranty of any kind, and Fitch does not represent or warrant that the report or
any of its contents will meet any of the requirements of a recipient of the
report. A Fitch rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a security.
This opinion and reports made by Fitch are based on established criteria and
methodologies that Fitch is continuously evaluating and updating. Therefore,
ratings and reports are the collective work product of Fitch and no individual,
or group of individuals, is solely responsible for a rating or a report. The
rating does not address the risk of loss due to risks other than credit risk,
unless such risk is specifically mentioned. Fitch is not engaged in the offer or
sale of any security. All Fitch reports have shared authorship. Individuals
identified in a Fitch report were involved in, but are not solely responsible
for, the opinions stated therein. The individuals are named for contact purposes
only. A report providing a Fitch rating is neither a prospectus nor a substitute
for the information assembled, verified and presented to investors by the issuer
and its agents in connection with the sale of the securities. Ratings may be
changed or withdrawn at any time for any reason in the sole discretion of Fitch.
Fitch does not provide investment advice of any sort. Ratings are not a
recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Ratings do not comment on the
adequacy of market price, the suitability of any security for a particular
investor, or the tax-exempt nature or taxability of payments made in respect to
any security. Fitch receives fees from issuers, insurers, guarantors, other
obligors, and underwriters for rating securities. Such fees generally vary from
US$1,000 to US$750,000 (or the applicable currency equivalent) per issue. In
certain cases, Fitch will rate all or a number of issues issued by a particular
issuer, or insured or guaranteed by a particular insurer or guarantor, for a
single annual fee. Such fees are expected to vary from US$10,000 to US$1,500,000
(or the applicable currency equivalent). The assignment, publication, or
dissemination of a rating by Fitch shall not constitute a consent by Fitch to
use its name as an expert in connection with any registration statement filed
under the United States securities laws, the Financial Services and Markets Act
of 2000 of the United Kingdom, or the securities laws of any particular
jurisdiction. Due to the relative efficiency of electronic publishing and
distribution, Fitch research may be available to electronic subscribers up to
three days earlier than to print subscribers.
For Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan and South Korea only: Fitch Australia Pty Ltd
holds an Australian financial services license (AFS license no. 337123) which
authorizes it to provide credit ratings to wholesale clients only. Credit
ratings information published by Fitch is not intended to be used by persons who
are retail clients within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001.
Fitch Ratings, Inc. is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange
Commission as a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (the
'NRSRO'). While certain of the NRSRO's credit rating subsidiaries are listed on
Item 3 of Form NRSRO and as such are authorized to issue credit ratings on
behalf of the NRSRO (see https://www.fitchratings.com/site/regulatory), other
credit rating subsidiaries are not listed on Form NRSRO (the 'non-NRSROs') and
therefore credit ratings issued by those subsidiaries are not issued on behalf
of the NRSRO. However, non-NRSRO personnel may participate in determining credit
ratings issued by or on behalf of the NRSRO.

Copyright © 2024 by Fitch Ratings, Inc., Fitch Ratings Ltd. and its
subsidiaries. 33 Whitehall Street, NY, NY 10004. Telephone: 1-800-753-4824,
(212) 908-0500. Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited
except by permission. All rights reserved.


Sovereigns
Asia-Pacific
Hong Kong, China
Macao, China
Taiwan, China
China


RELATED REGIONS

 * China
 * Taiwan, China
 * Hong Kong, China
 * Macao, China





ENTITIES

 * Taiwan, China
 * Macao, China
 * China
 * Hong Kong, China





ISSUER CONTENT

 * China’s Shifting Policy Stance Points to Further Easing
 * Greater China Sovereign Outlook 2025
 * Global Sovereign Sector Outlook Is Neutral, with US Policy Risks to the Fore
 * Global Sovereigns Outlook 2025
 * China’s New Fiscal Proposals Unlikely to Immediately Boost Growth
 * Strengthening Forex Buffers Supportive for APAC Sovereigns’ Credit Profiles
 * Effect of US Election Outcome on Sovereign Credit Profiles Will Vary
 * 惠誉授予中国拟发行美元债券‘A+’的评级
 * Fitch Assigns China's Proposed USD Bond 'A+' Rating





RECOMMENDED CONTENT

 * Angola - Ratings Navigator
 * Tanzania - Ratings Navigator
 * Canada’s Deteriorating Federal Finances Face Additional Risks
 * Congo Default on Regional Debt Highlights Risks for CEMAC Market
 * Sovereign Rating Review Calendar 2025
 * Malaysia - Ratings Navigator





MEDIA CONTACTS

Peter Hoflich
Singapore
+65 6796 7229
peter.hoflich@thefitchgroup.com

Jack Li
Beijing
+86 10 5957 0964
jack.li@thefitchgroup.com

Vivian Kam
Hong Kong
+852 2263 9612
vivian.kam@thefitchgroup.com

RATINGS KEYOUTLOOKWATCHPositiveNegativeEvolvingStable 

* Ratings displayed in orange denotes EU or UK Unsolicited and Non-Participatory
Ratings



Where there was a review with no rating action (Review – No Action), please
refer to the “Latest Rating Action Commentary” for an explanation of key rating
drivers



*Premium content is displayed in Fitch Red



ABOUT

 * About UsContact UsCareersMedia RelationsFeedback

REGULATORY

 * Regulatory AffairsCriteriaCode of Conduct & EthicsPrivacy
   PolicyWhistleblowing Policy and Reporting

PRODUCT

 * Rating ActionsCoverageResearch & AnalyticsRating Products & ToolsRating
   PerformanceNewsletters

REGION

 * EuropeNorth AmericaAfricaAsiaLatin AmericaMiddle East

FITCH GROUP

 * Fitch GroupFitch RatingsFitch SolutionsFitch BohuaFitch LearningOwned by
   Hearst

Copyright © 2024 Fitch Ratings, Inc., Fitch Solutions, Inc. and their
subsidiaries. Policies | Manage CookiesBuild v4.7.137
 * 
 * 



We use cookies to deliver our online services, to understand how they are used
and for advertising purposes. Details of the cookies we use and instructions on
how to disable them are set out in our Privacy Policy.
DeclineAcceptOptions