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Last Update: 10/22/2021 4:42 PM

Ryan Littlestone
Oct 22nd4:42 PM



DECISION MADE IN $USDJPY?




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Ryan Littlestone
Oct 22nd4:39 PM



A BIG WEEK AHEAD, SO GET AHEAD WITH A PREVIEW FROM LIVESQUAWK:

Not to mention EoM too.


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Ryan Littlestone
Oct 22nd4:13 PM



#FED'S POWELL - WE WANT TO GIVE SERVICE SECTOR TIME TO COME BACK BEFORE WE START
RESTRAINING DEMAND:

There's your clue for rate hikes.




So, basically, get employment up in all those lower wage service sector jobs,
get those wages up some too and then when everyone is settled, hit them with
hikes, and hope folks can wear them.

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Ryan Littlestone
Oct 22nd3:58 PM



#BREXIT - EU CONSIDERS TERMINATION BREXIT DEAL IF #UK RIFT DEEPENS:

BBG

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Ryan Littlestone
Oct 22nd3:50 PM



#FED'S POWELL - WATCHING VERY CAREFULLY FOR SIGNS OF WAGE-PRICE SPIRAL:

So they can bury their heads in the sand over that too? 😉😂

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Ryan Littlestone
Oct 22nd3:24 PM



#FED'S POWELL - IT WOULD BE PREMATURE TO RAISE RATES:

 * We don't know how long inflation will take to abate.

Hang on, last year they were sure inflation wasn't coming at all, and then they
said it was going to be transitory, and now they don't have a clue how long it
will last for. WTF? 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️😂😂

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Ryan Littlestone
Oct 22nd3:08 PM



#FED'S POWELL: OUR VIEW IS THAT HIGH INFLATION LIKELY TO ABATE:

 * Supply-side constraints have gotten worse.
 * High inflation will likely last into next year.
 * If we see persistent inflation, we would use our tools.
 * Need to make sure policy is positioned for wide range of outcomes.

Doesn't sound like he's gonna drop any bombs.




Then:

 * On track to begin taper and finish by mid-2022

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Gregor Horvat
Oct 22nd3:07 PM



INTEL IN A PULLBACK; SUPPORT AT $40-45





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Ryan Littlestone
Oct 22nd1:45 PM



#US MARKIT #MANUFACTURING #PMI FLASH OCTOBER 2021 59.2 VS 60.3 EXP:

 * Pr 60.7.
 * #Services 58.2 vs 55.1 exp. Pr 54.9.
 * Comp 57.3 vs 55.0 pr.
 * Economy accelerates despite bottlenecks as services revive from Delta wave,
   but prices rise at record pace

Much as we've seen in others, a divergence in the sectors. Services better on an
improving virus situation, while manufacturing starts to suffer lower activity
from the supply chain issues. Both facing higher costs.



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Ryan Littlestone
Oct 22nd1:42 PM



#FED'S BARKIN - WE MUST EXPLORE HOW MUCH JUICE IS LEFT IN THE JOBS MARKET:

 * Prefers to finish taper before lifting off.

Last day today before the Fed blackout period (not that it stopped them last
month)👏

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Kman
Oct 22nd1:31 PM



#MEXICO'S PRES LOPEZ OBRADOR SAYS BELIEVES #INFLATION IS TRANSITORY BUT WILL
FALL SOON.

Powell/Lagarde disciples everywhere. Is it a sect?

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Kman
Oct 22nd12:30 PM



#CANADA AUGUST 2021 #RETAIL SALES M/M 2.1% VS 2% EXP, PRIOR -0.6%.

 * ex Autos 2.8% vs 2.8% exp, prior -1.0%.




August data. CAD still doing well in global pic. #USDCAD close to the 1.2290/00
support.

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Kman
Oct 22nd10:31 AM



#RUSSIA #CBR RAISES #INTEREST RATE BY 75 BPS TO 7.50% FROM 6.75%.(MORE THAN EXP)

 * Comments if #inflation continues as expected, further hikes are possible.
 * #USDRUB drops through 70, low 69.81 so far, back to arnd 70 writing this.

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Ryan Littlestone
Oct 22nd10:13 AM



US YIELDS ARE PUSHING LEVELS BUT USDJPY IS NOT JOINING THE PARTY:

US 10's snuggling up around the 1.70% level, and that's another speed hump to
another possible next leg higher.






USDJPY isn't playing ball with yields and the 114 zone is toughening up
resistance, with rallies above getting knocked back. I feel this one could still
go either way. The 113.70/80 zone is still my marker for the downside, so
getting under there properly could see a swift move to the low 113's. But, while
we stay above we can't rule out another push higher.



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Oct 22nd9:38 AM



EURGBP - ALMOST THERE

Feels like it needs one final flush lower to the low 0.83s, where a long would
probably make a lot of sense. Still waiting for this one to complete the move.



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Leandro Andrada
Oct 22nd9:07 AM



#TRADERS USD VOLATILITY

#forex #Trader #Trading #dxy

volatilidad del Índice del dólar.




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Ryan Littlestone
Oct 22nd8:49 AM



SPEAKING OF THE #BOE...

ICYMI

 * Pill says MPC finely balanced on rate hikes and the November meeting is
   "live".




Reuters
BoE chief economist says UK inflation could top 5% -FT
The Bank of England’s new chief economist, Huw Pill, said inflation in Britain
could surpass a “very uncomfortable” 5% and the question of whether to raise
interest rates was a “live” one at its early November meeting, the Financial
Times reported.
Read the article on  https://www.reuters.com
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Ryan Littlestone
Oct 22nd8:30 AM



#UK MARKIT #SERVICES #PMI FLASH OCTOBER 2021 58.0 VS 54.5 EXP:

 * Pr 55.4.
 * #Manufacturing 57.7 vs 55.8 exp. Pr 57.1.
 * Comp 56.8 vs 54.0 exp. Pr 54.9.
 * UK recovery regains momentum in October, but supply shortages hit
   manufacturing growth, and cost inflation reaches new record high
 * Wage and supply chain pressures saw fastest rate of input prices rises ever.

Another set of surprising numbers.



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Ryan Littlestone
Oct 22nd8:00 AM



#EUROZONE MARKIT #MANUFACTURING #PMI FLASH OCTOBER 2021 58.5 VS 57.0 EXP:

 * Pr 58.6.
 * #Services 54.7 vs 55.5 exp. Pr 56.4.
 * Comp 54.3 vs 55.2 exp. Pr 56.2.
 * Supply bottlenecks curb economic growth to six-month low in October, while
   pushing prices higher at record pace.


markiteconomics.com
318d8368fea74e588e80760a5eb9c21f

Read the article on  https://www.markiteconomics.com
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Ryan Littlestone
Oct 22nd7:30 AM



#GERMANY MARKIT #MANUFACTURING #PMI FLASH OCTOBER 2021 58.2 VS 56.5 EXP:

 * Pr 58.4.
 * #Services 52.4 vs 55.0 exp. Pr 56.2.
 * Comp 52.0 vs 54.0 exp. Pr 55.5.
 * October sees growth in activity continue to slow as prices surge

Good news on employment but with that comes worries about wages demands already
(#inflation).



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