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SEE THE FUTURE SOONER
Actionable, early insight and better decisions start with the science of
Superforecasting
Our FutureFirst™ service gives you 24/7 access to Superforecaster insights on
dozens of newsworthy questions.
Learn more about FutureFirst
Public Workshop: 2 & 4 December 2024
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SUPERFORECASTING® SERVICES
* FUTUREFIRST™
See the future coming with professional crowd-sourced insights and quantified
forecasts.
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* ALL GOOD JUDGMENT SERVICES
Great decisions require great forecasts. Good Judgment uses the science of
Superforecasting to turn your strategic uncertainty into manageable risk.
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A QUICK PEEK AT WHAT THE SUPERFORECASTERS ARE SAYING TODAY…
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forecasts
plus qualitative analysis by Good Judgment Inc’s Professional Superforecasters.
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WHO ARE THE SUPERFORECASTERS?
Good Judgment’s global network of Superforecasters has its roots in research
funded by the US intelligence community. The Good Judgment Project—led by Philip
Tetlock and Barbara Mellers at the University of Pennsylvania—emerged as the
undisputed victor of the geopolitical forecasting competition. Reports that
Superforecasters were 30% more accurate than intelligence analysts with access
to classified information rocked the conventional wisdom. Tetlock and Mellers
co-founded Good Judgment Inc to provide forecasting services to partners and
clients in the non-profit, government, and private sectors.
WHY ARE SUPERFORECASTERS SO ACCURATE?
That question made Superforecasting required reading from Wall Street to 10
Downing Street. Read more >>
WHO WE SERVE
The world’s most innovative organizations turn to Good Judgment to get early
insight on pivotal questions about the future.
* FINANCIAL SERVICES
Financial services firms succeed when they foresee risks and
opportunities before they are priced into the market. Superforecasting helps
these firms make smart bets on consumer trends, regulatory developments, and
geopolitical shifts that the less-informed crowd has yet to recognize. See
how our Covid vaccine Superforecasts anticipated financial markets.
* ENERGY
Energy companies rely on forecasts to decide which resources to develop,
which markets to serve, and what prices to charge. Good Judgment helps energy
providers quantify geopolitical and regulatory risks so that the firms can
build decision models that take account of more than just engineering and
economic data. Read about a Wharton collaboration with Good Judgment to
forecast electric-vehicle innovations.
* GOVERNMENT
Policymakers and military leaders leverage Superforecasting to anticipate
events of global consequence more rapidly and precisely. Early, actionable
forecasts allow strategists to “get it righter, faster.” Our partnership with
ForgeFront makes it easy for UK government clients to access Superforecasting
tools. Learn how the US State Department used Superforecasts to inform
efforts to eradicate illegal coca crops.
* NGOS & NONPROFITS
NGOs and nonprofits seeking to make the most of limited resources must
forecast where the need will be greatest. Superforecasting accelerates
insights on public health and humanitarian crises, so that our clients can
deliver timely aid where it’s most needed. Discover how adelphi worked with
Good Judgment to anticipate climate-related risks.
See our Case Studies for additional examples of organizations using
Superforecasting to solve their toughest forecasting problems and make better
decisions.
PRESS & INSIGHTS
* ALTERNATIVE DATA: CAN SUPERFORECASTERS BEAT THE MARKET?
Financial Times (July 2024)
“A group of lay people with a talent for forecasting have consistently
outperformed financial markets in predicting the Fed’s next move,” writes
Financial Times’ data journalist Joel Suss in “Alternative data: Can
superforecasters beat the market?”
Read More
* THERE’S A NAME FOR THE TRAP BIDEN FACES
The New York Times (July 2024)
Adam Grant’s guest essay in the New York Times references Good Judgment and
Superforecasters.
“What Mr. Biden needs is not a support network but a challenge network,” the
NYT bestselling author writes. “An ideal candidate for this role might be
professional forecaster, since forecasters — unlike pollsters, who tell us
what voters think today — excel at anticipating how views are likely to
change tomorrow.”
Read More
* WHAT THE “SUPERFORECASTERS” PREDICT FOR MAJOR EVENTS IN 2024
The World Ahead 2024, The Economist (November 2023)
Following another successful collaboration last year, Good Judgment’s
Superforecasters were invited to contribute their forecasts for The
Economist’s forward-looking publication, The World Ahead 2024. Their
forecasts focus on the UK, US, and Indian elections, global economy, and
conflict hotspots in the coming year. Superforecasters received full marks
for accuracy for their 2023 forecasts published at the end of last year.
Read More
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