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AMIS
Destruction of Kakhovka dam spells trouble for regional agriculture
07 Jul 2023
The collapse of the Kakhovka dam in southeastern Ukraine raises alarm for the
region's agriculture. While initial concerns focused mostly on the impact of the
[...]
Market Monitor July 2023
06 Jul 2023
The fate of the Black Sea Grain Initiative is again in jeopardy. The collapse of
the Nova Kakhovka dam last month has flooded cropland along [...]
(c) UN Women
Food price inflation continues putting food security at risk
02 Jun 2023
Despite the now yearlong decline in international food commodity prices, most
people have not seen the cost of the food they buy come down. Instead, [...]
IRI 2023. ENSO Forecast
El Niño might be just around the corner
05 May 2023
After three consecutive years of La Niña that brought bumper crops for some and
crop failures for others, we are likely heading right into an [...]


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last release: 6 July 2023


MARKETS AT A GLANCE

 * overview
 * wheat
 * maize
 * rice
 * soybean

 

From previous month forecast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

The fate of the Black Sea Grain Initiative is again in jeopardy. The collapse of
the Nova Kakhovka dam last month has flooded cropland along the Dnipro River and
disrupted irrigation. Meanwhile, the ammonia pipeline from the Russian
Federation to the Ukrainian port of Pivdennyi has also been damaged. The
pipeline has not been in operation since the start of the war; however, its
reopening has been a key demand of the Russian Federation to renew the grain
deal. While these events are not likely to have major impacts on grain supplies
in the short term, they further increase tensions that could result in a
termination of the agreement later this month. This would reduce Black Sea
exports and further reduce Ukraine production incentives.

2022/23

2023/24

estimate

1 Jun

6 Jul

Production

801.8

776.7

783.3

Supply

1096.7

1087.4

1094.4

Utilization

780.5

780.3

782.7

Trade

202.2

193.7

195.3

Ending Stocks

311.1

308.5

313.9

in million tonnes

 * Wheat production forecast for 2023 raised on improved prospects in several
   countries, including Canada, Kazakhstan and Türkiye.
 * Utilization in 2023/24 scaled up slightly m/m on higher feed use, now rising
   marginally above 2022/23 solely on growth in food consumption while feed and
   other use are set to contract.
 * Trade in 2023/24 (July/June) raised this month, on larger expected sales from
   Canada and stronger demand from China, but still forecast to fall from the
   2022/23 record level.
 * Stocks (ending in 2024) now forecast to rise slightly above opening levels
   following an upwards revision this month mostly concerning stocks in China,
   the EU, and Kazakhstan.

2022/23

2023/24

estimate

1 Jun

6 Jul

Production

1162.8

1212.0

1211.3

Supply

1470.0

1500.9

1499.7

Utilization

1180.4

1203.1

1202.9

Trade

180.7

178.9

179.3

Ending Stocks

288.4

302.1

300.9

in million tonnes

 * Maize production forecast for 2023 nearly unchanged and still pointing to a
   rebound, surpassing the 2022 level by 4.2 percent.
 * Utilization in 2023/24 still forecast to increase by 1.9 percent, largely on
   growth in feed use, especially in Brazil, China and the US, along with higher
   food consumption and industrial use.
 * Trade in 2023/24 (July/June) forecast to fall, reflecting weaker import
   demand from the EU and a decline in exports from Ukraine as well as from
   Paraguay.
 * Stocks (ending in 2024) revised down slightly m/m, mostly in Brazil and
   Ukraine, but still forecast to rise by 4.3 percent above opening levels,
   underpinned by a sharp recovery of US inventories.

2022/23

2023/24

estimate

1 Jun

6 Jul

Production

517.6

523.5

523.7

Supply

714.5

718.3

718.8

Utilization

520.4

520.1

520.0

Trade

53.0

56.6

56.4

Ending Stocks

195.1

198.3

198.5

in million tonnes

 * Rice production in 2023/24 raised fractionally m/m, reflecting a few small
   upward adjustments to output figures for producers along and south of the
   equator and for Bangladesh.
 * Utilization in 2023/24 essentially unchanged m/m and still expected to remain
   close to the 2022/23 level.
 * Trade in 2023 (January-December) downscaled somewhat and now seen contracting
   by 5.1 percent y/y, as an anticipated rebound in imports by Indonesia,
   alongside more modest import increases elsewhere, are outweighed by import
   cuts particularly by Bangladesh, China, Senegal, Sri Lanka and Viet Nam.
 * Stocks (2023/24 carry-outs) raised slightly, largely reflecting less downbeat
   carryover expectations for Myanmar.

2022/23

2023/24

estimate

1 Jun

6 Jul

Production

373.3

405.9

403.0

Supply

416.8

450.5

448.4

Utilization

369.5

390.6

391.4

Trade

166.6

170.4

170.1

Ending Stocks

45.4

55.2

53.0

in million tonnes

 * Soybean 2023/24 production trimmed from the previous month, with a lower
   forecast for the US more than offsetting upward revisions for Brazil, India
   and Zambia.
 * Utilization in 2023/24 raised slightly, mainly driven by higher crush
   forecasts for Brazil, India, and some African countries, outweighing smaller
   consumption prospects elsewhere.
 * Trade in 2023/24 (Oct/Sep) virtually stable m/m, confirming expectations of a
   steady growth of global soybean transactions from the previous season.
 * Stocks (2023/24 carry-out) lowered moderately, chiefly reflecting a downward
   revision for the US, while global closing stocks still seen recovering by 17
   percent from the opening levels.

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INDICATORS


EVENTS

23rd session of the Global Food Market Information Group
15 Jun 2023 to 16 Jun 2023
Rome, Italy

12th session of the AMIS Secretariat Steering Committee
15 Jun 2023

Watch replay: Production Prospects for the Northern Hemisphere
18 Apr 2023
Online webinar

12th session of the AMIS Rapid Response Forum
29 Mar 2023
Chandigarh, India

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