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 * United Kingdom


UK ECONOMY GROWS STRONGLY IN Q2 BUT SLOWDOWN SEEN AHEAD

By David Milliken and Andy Bruce
August 15, 20245:17 PM GMT+2Updated 12 hours ago
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 * Summary

 * UK Q2 GDP +0.6% after strong Q1 0.7% expansion
 * Output per head rises but still lower than in 2019
 * Zero growth in June as wet weather hit retail sales

LONDON, Aug 15 (Reuters) - Britain's economy recorded a second quarter of strong
growth as it recovered from last year's shallow recession but it lost momentum
as it entered the second half of 2024, suggesting the Bank of England remains on
course to cut interest rates again.
Gross domestic product grew 0.6% in the second quarter of 2024 after a 0.7%
expansion in the first quarter which was the fastest in more than two years, the
Office for National Statistics said.
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But in June alone monthly output growth slowed to zero from 0.4% in May, as
heavy rain hurt retail sales and a doctor's strike contributed to a 1.5% drop in
healthcare activity.
Sterling edged up marginally after the data, which did little to shift financial
markets' expectations that the BoE will cut rates once or twice more this year.
Uncertainty in the run-up to July 4's election - which saw the Labour Party win
a large majority after 14 years in opposition - might also have weighed on
growth in June, said Thomas Pugh, economist at accountancy firm RSM UK.
Advertisement · Scroll to continue

"Overall, the UK economy has shown a solid performance in the first half of the
year, but we need to see signs of rising incomes and confidence feeding through
into actual spending and investment to drive growth over the next year," he
said.
Suren Thiru, economics director at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in
England and Wales, expected quarterly growth to slow as interest rates remained
near a 16-year high, despite this month's BoE cut. Wage growth was also likely
to moderate and a long-term productivity problem persisted, he said.

At the start of the month the BoE raised its annual growth forecast for 2024 to
1.25% from 0.5% due to a stronger-than-expected start to the year and an
expectation of 0.7% quarter-on-quarter growth in the three months to June.
But it was less upbeat about the outlook for the remainder of 2024, seeing
growth slow to 0.4% in the third quarter and 0.2% in the final three months of
the year - which it views as closer to the economy's underlying growth rate.


Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics

Shoppers walk on Oxford Street in London, Britain, July 30, 2024. REUTERS/Hollie
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SLOW RECOVERY

Britain's economy has grown slowly since the COVID-19 pandemic, expanding just
2.3% between the fourth quarter of 2019 and the second quarter of 2024.
Only Germany, which was also hit hard by surging energy costs after Russia's
invasion of Ukraine, has done worse among the world's largest advanced
economies.
Output per head has risen in the past two quarters but is 0.8% lower than before
the pandemic as economic growth has been too weak to keep up with a rising
population driven by record levels of immigration.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he wanted the economy to achieve annual growth
of 2.5% when campaigning in the run-up to July 4's election - a rate that
Britain has not regularly reached since before the 2008 financial crisis.
Finance minister Rachel Reeves set a more formal target that Britain should
enjoy the fastest per capita growth in gross domestic product among the Group of
Seven advanced economies for two consecutive years.
Reeves said the latest data showed the challenge facing the new government and
repeated her position that she would need to take tough decisions to improve
economic fundamentals.
James Smith, UK economist at ING, said the strong quarterly growth was unlikely
to give Reeves more spending power for her Oct. 30 budget, as official
forecasters were unlikely to revise up their assessment of Britain's longer-term
potential.
Growth in output per hour worked has slowed in most advanced economies since the
late 2000s - limiting increases in living standards - and Britain's
long-standing problem of low business investment was exacerbated by the public's
2016 vote to leave the European Union.
Thursday's data showed business investment in the second quarter was 1.1% lower
than a year earlier.

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your day. Sign up here.

Reporting by David Milliken and Andy Bruce; editing by William James, Kate
Holton and Toby Chopra

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