www.cbssports.com Open in urlscan Pro
151.101.13.188  Public Scan

Form analysis
0 forms found in the DOM

Text Content

site: media | arena: collegebasketball | pageType: stories | section: | slug:
2022-ncaa-tournament-bracket-which-team-will-pull-off-the-no-12-vs-no-5-upset-this-march-madness
| sport: collegebasketball | route: article_single.us | 6-keys:
media/spln/collegebasketball/reg/free/stories
 * CBSSports.com
 * 247Sports
 * MaxPreps
 * SportsLine
 * Shop
 * Play Golf
 * Stubhub
 * Caesars Sportsbook

 * 
 * 
 * 
 * 

 * CBS Sports Home
 * Sports HQ
 * Fantasy
 * Brackets
 * NCAA Tournament
 * NCAA BB
 * NCAA WBB
 * NFL

 * MLB
 * Soccer
 * NBA
 * Golf
 * NCAA FB
 * NHL
 * Champions League
 * MMA

 * WWE
 * Boxing
 * NASCAR
 * Motor Sports
 * Horse Racing 
 * NWSL
 * WNBA
 * Olympics

 * Big3
 * Tennis
 * High School
 * WSOP
 * Shop
 * Promotions
 * PBR 
 * Rugby 

 * Stubhub
 * Play Golf 



 * Home
 * Bracket Games
 * Scores
 * NCAA Tourney
 * Live Bracket
 * Expert Brackets
 * Expert Picks
 * Odds
 * NIT Bracket
 * Women's BB
 * Schedule
 * Standings
 * Rankings
 * Teams
 * Stats
 * Watch Live
 * Bracketology
 * Conf. Tourneys
 * HBCU All Stars
 * NBA Draft
 * Prospect Rankings
 * College Shop
 * Stubhub
 * * Home
   * Bracket Games
   * Scores
   * NCAA Tourney
   * Live Bracket
   * Expert Brackets
   * Expert Picks
   * Odds
   * NIT Bracket
   * Women's BB
   * Schedule
   * Standings
   * Rankings
   * Teams
   * Stats
   * Watch Live
   * Bracketology
   * Conf. Tourneys
   * HBCU All Stars 
   * NBA Draft
   * Prospect Rankings
   * College Shop
   * Stubhub

 * Play
   
   GAMES
   
   Play Now
   
   Men's Brackets
   
   Play Now
   
   Women's Brackets
   
   View your Leagues
   
   CAESARS SPORTSBOOK
   
   FANTASY BASEBALL
   
   FANTASY FOOTBALL
   
   COLLEGE PICK'EM
   
   FOOTBALL PICK'EM
   
   FRANCHISE GAMES
   
   FANTASY BASKETBALL
   
   FANTASY HOCKEY
   
   See All Sports Games
 * Watch
   
   24/7 SPORTS NEWS NETWORK
   
   
    * Paramount+
    * March Madness Live
    * UEFA Champions League
    * UEFA Europa League
    * UEFA Europa Conference League
    * Italian Serie A
    * Liga Argentina Profesional
    * Scottish Professional
    * NWSL Challenge Cup
    * Watch CBS Sports Network
    * TV Shows & Listings

 * Bet
   
   BET WITH CAESARS
   
   
    * BET FOOTBALL
    * BET BASKETBALL
    * BET BASEBALL
    * BET HOCKEY
    * BET GOLF
    * BET FUTURES
    * BET LIVE IN-GAME

 * Podcasts
   
   FANTASY FOOTBALL TODAY
   
   Free Agency Recap
   
   NOTHING PERSONAL WITH DAVID SAMSON
   
   Covering the impact of coronavirus on the sports world
   
    * Podcasts Home
    * Fantasy Football Today
    * NFL Pick Six
    * Cover 3 College Football
    * Eye On College Basketball
    * Morning Kombat
    * The First Cut Golf
    * 
    * 
    * 

 * Log In
 * My Teams
   Organize / See All Teams Help
   Account Settings Log Out



 * NCAA Tournament Coverage
 * Live Bracket
 * Expert Brackets
 * Women's NCAA Bracket


2022 NCAA TOURNAMENT BRACKET: WHICH TEAM WILL PULL OFF THE NO. 12 VS. NO. 5
UPSET THIS MARCH MADNESS


THERE'S BEEN A NO. 12 VS. NO. 5 UPSET IN 32 OF THE 36 TOURNAMENTS SINCE THE 1985
EXPANSION, INCLUDING THREE IN 2019

By Zachary Pereles
Mar 16, 2022 at 12:11 pm ET 6 min read
 * 
 * 
 * 

The frustration of trying to identify the No. 12 vs. No. 5 upset you want to
pick as you fill out your bracket is a tale as old as time. Well, it's a tale as
old as 1985, at least.

The No. 9 vs. No. 8 game is essentially a toss-up. There's a significant
drop-off in winning percentage from No. 9 seeds to No. 10 seeds, but then just a
small one from No. 10 to No. 11 and No. 11 to No. 12 before another steep
drop-off for No. 13 seeds. In essence, history says your best last chance for a
big upset usually lies with the No. 12 seeds.

Time is running out for Brackets! Fill out your brackets in your pools and enter
for a chance to win a trip to the 2023 Men's Final FourⓇ. 

At least one No. 12 seed has defeated a No. 5 seed in 32 of the 36 tournaments
since expansion. Five of the last nine tournaments have featured multiple No. 12
vs. No. 5 upsets, including three in both 2019 and 2014.



Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, here is the record of seed
underdogs in the first round.

Seed-vs-seed

Win-Loss

Win pct

No. 9 vs 8

73-71

.507

No. 10 vs 7

57-86

.399

No. 11 vs 6

54-90

.375

No. 12 vs 5

51-93

.354

No. 13 vs 4

31-113

.215

No. 14 vs 3

22-122

.153

No. 15 vs 2

9-135

.063

No. 16 vs 1

1-143

.007

One clue we can use is team conference: Since 1996-97 -- the Big 12's inaugural
season -- we've had six "major" conferences: ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten,
Pac-12 and SEC. Here's how No. 12 seeds have fared based on conference
affiliation since:

No. 12 SEED vs No. 5 SEED SINCE 1997

No. 5 seed from major conf.

No. 5 seed not from major conf.

No. 12 seed from major conf.

8-4 (.666)

4-1 (.800)

No. 12 seed not from major conf.

18-45 (.286)

7-9 (.438)

With those considerable differences in mind, let's take a look at which team is
most likely to pull off the famed 12-5 upset.


1. INDIANA

First round opponent: Saint Mary's

The Hoosiers entered the NCAA Tournament as the highest-ranked No. 12 seed by
both the NET (38th) and KenPom.com (36th), and defense is a big reason why, as
shown in Tuesday's First Four win over Wyoming. The Cowboys committed a
season-high 19 turnovers -- 10 by star point guard Hunter Maldonado -- and had
multiple five-minute stretches in which they did not make a field goal.

Indiana's offense wasn't much better, but it does have a relatively stable floor
thanks to star big man Trayce Jackson-Davis, who posted 29 points in his NCAA
Tournament debut. While second- and third-leading scorers Xavier Johnson and
Race Thompson combined for just 14 points on 5-of-21 shooting, Jackson-Davis
ensured things wouldn't completely fall apart. This came just days after he
averaged 25.3 points per game in the Big Ten Tournament.

Like Indiana, Saint Mary's is extremely good defensively. The Gaels rank ninth
in defensive efficiency this season, even better than the Hoosiers, who come in
at 21st. Both teams are in the top 20 in field goal defense at the rim, and both
are happy to play at a slow pace. Don't expect a ton of points here.

As I wrote Monday regarding First Four teams that could make a run, Indiana has
the pieces in place. It will need better guard play, especially from Johnson.
But throw in the trends from the chart above and the fact that in a low-scoring,
low-possession game, the difference could be simply having the best player (in
this game, Jackson-Davis) on the floor, and Indiana is a strong option.


2. UAB

First round opponent: Houston

America, prepare to meet Jordan "Jelly" Walker. The electric junior guard spent
time at Seton Hall and Tulane but found a home at UAB this year, leading the
league in both points (21.6) and assists (5.3) per game in conference play en
route to earning Conference USA Player of the Year honors. Walker was the only
Division I player this season to score 20 points per game, make 100 3-pointers
and shoot 40% from deep. Last year, the only player to do that was Oral Roberts'
Max Abmas, whose Golden Eagles made the Sweet 16 as a No. 15 seed.

Elsewhere, Quan Jackson is one of the nation's best steal artists, and KJ Buffen
is the type of rugged forward you need in order to beat a team like Houston,
which is the definition of "rugged." Coach Andy Kennedy took Ole Miss to the
NCAA Tournament twice -- as a No. 12 seed in 2013 and as a No. 11 seed in 2015
-- and both times, the Rebels won a game.

Expect this one to be decided in two areas. First, the Blazers shoot 38% from
deep, 20th in Division I, but the Cougars allow just a 29% clip from there, good
for 11th. Second, UAB was a solid defensive rebounding team but will have to
take it up a notch: Houston rebounds nearly 38% of its misses, third in Division
I.


3. NEW MEXICO STATE

First round opponent: UConn

New Mexico State finished an impressive 26-6 and won the WAC Tournament, beating
Grand Canyon and Abilene Christian by a combined 19 points. This is the Aggies'
ninth trip to the NCAA Tournament since 2010. The bad news? They're 0-8 in their
previous eight trips, and haven't won a Tournament game since 1993.

The biggest reason to believe the drought ends this year is Teddy Allen, who is
at his fifth different college in five years -- West Virginia in 2017-18,
Wichita State (sat out as transfer) in 2018-19, Western Nebraska Community
College in 2019-20 after getting kicked off Wichita State, Nebraska in 2020-21
and New Mexico State this year. No matter the setting, Allen's always been able
to score. His 19.3 points per game led the WAC this season.

This particular matchup, though, is a tough one. The Huskies have several long,
athletic wing defenders to use against Allen, and behind them is a strong rim
protector in Adama Sanogo. On the other end, UConn owns the nation's second-best
offensive rebounding percentage. New Mexico State, on the other hand, ranks
outside the top 100 in defensive rebounding percentage. The Aggies don't shoot
it well from the perimeter or the foul line either, two factors that hurt their
chances of pulling off the upset.


4. RICHMOND

First round opponent: Iowa

Coming off a surprising run to the Atlantic 10 Tournament title, Richmond may
have come in higher if its opponent wasn't coming off an even more impressive
conference tournament performance. Iowa's Big Ten Tournament title was one of
the most impressive displays during conference tournament play.

All hope is not lost for the Spiders. Jacob Gilyard is the all-time NCAA leader
in steals and is coming off an electric performance in the A-10 Tournament.
Sixth-year senior Grant Golden is a skilled big man who often runs the offense,
and Tyler Burton is a terrific defender with the length and quickness to
potentially bother First-Team All-American Keegan Murray.

The Hawkeyes just have too much firepower on offense (second in offensive
efficiency compared to Richmond's 69th), are too composed (third in turnover
rate) and are simply too dynamic for the Spiders. Murray is a matchup nightmare,
and when he plays alongside his brother, Kris, Iowa's offense is nearly
unguardable. If the Spiders try to downsize by taking out Golden, their offense
may not be able to keep up. If they keep Golden in, significant defensive issues
may emerge. Coach Chris Mooney will have his hands full with that issue and much
more.







PLAY FOR A TRIP & A TRUCK!

Play with friends and compete for big-time prizes in our Men's and Women's
Challenges.

Play Now



2022 MARCH MADNESS PREDICTIONS: NCAA BRACKET EXPERT PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD,
ODDS IN THURSDAY'S ROUND 1 GAMES


A CLOSER LOOK AT THE FIRST ROUND GAMES ON THURSDAY'S SLATE OF THE NCAA
TOURNAMENT

By Kyle Boone
11 hrs ago 4 min read
 * 
 * 
 * 

Watch Now:

Officially speaking, the 2022 NCAA Tournament got underway earlier this week
with the First Four games in Dayton, Ohio, across Tuesday and Wednesday nights.
Unofficially, though, the real mayhem of March gets going Thursday and Friday as
first-round tourney action takes place across the country. Between the two days,
the field will shrunk in half from 64 to 32 teams as a (nearly) sun up to sun
down schedule for the sport. It's part of what makes March Madness, well, March
Madness.

Getting some extra skin in the games may be what gets you in the tournament
spirit, too. Below, I've called on the expertise of the college hoops team to
shed some insight with picks straight up and against the spread for some of the
top games on Thursday's extended slate. Our expert brackets may offer some help
on this front as well.

While surviving and advancing is clearly what matters for most, we care about
whether these teams will cover their spreads, and we've tracked the season since
November to be able to offer our own thoughts on every game.

Be sure to stick with CBS Sports throughout the rest of the month for NCAA
Tournament coverage through the end of the Final Four. Let's take a look at our
expert picks as first round games get underway Thursday.



Odds via Caesars Sportsbook | All times Eastern


FEATURED NCAA TOURNAMENT PICKS


(6) COLORADO STATE VS. (11) MICHIGAN

Thursday, 12:15 p.m. | CBS, March Madness Live: The loss of starting point guard
DeVante' Jones (concussion) for at least Michigan's first-round game against
Colorado State is a significant one. He's the team's assist leader,
third-leading scorer and has been big down the stretch. But I'm still taking the
No. 11 over No. 6 in this matchup. Michigan's frontcourt between Hunter
Dickinson and Moussa Diabate is a huge mismatch. Can't see Colorado State
stopping them consistently enough, though I do expect Rams star David Roddy to
keep this one fairly close. Pick: Michigan -1.5


ParrishNorlanderPalmBooneCobbPatterson

Spread

CSU +1.5

MICH -1.5

CSU +1.5

MICH -1.5

CSU +1.5

CSU +1.5

Straight up

CSU

MICH

CSU

MICH

CSU

CSU


(4) PROVIDENCE VS. (13) SOUTH DAKOTA STATE

Thursday, 12:40 p.m. | truTV, March Madness Live: Since 2010, the top 3-point
shooting team in the field has advanced at least one round in every year but
two. That should bode well for South Dakota State, which ranks No. 1 in the
country in 3-point shooting percentage. Providence is no slouch -- it won the
Big East regular season and plays a physical style that will muck this game up
-- but I like the Jackrabbits to advance as an underdog. Pick: South Dakota
State +2


ParrishNorlanderPalmBooneCobbPatterson

Spread

SDST +2

SDST +2

SDST +2

SDST +2

PROV -2

PROV -2

Straight up

SDST

SDST

SDST

SDST

PROV

PROV


(5) IOWA VS. (12) RICHMOND

Thursday, 3:10 p.m. | truTV, March Madness Live: Iowa is arguably the hottest
team in the country entering the NCAA Tournament. Coming off a Big Ten
Tournament title, the Hawkeyes have won 12 of their last 14 games and have found
a groove as Keegan Murray has blossomed from a star to a superstar. Murray
averaged 26 points per game as Iowa won four games in four days to clinch the
conference tourney title, and this team seems battle-tested and perfectly
positioned to continue its incredible March with a dominant win in Round
1. Pick: Iowa -10.5


ParrishNorlanderPalmBooneCobbPatterson

Spread

IOWA -10.5

IOWA -10.5

IOWA -10.5

IOWA -10.5

IOWA -10.5

IOWA -10.5

Straight up

IOWA

IOWA

IOWA

IOWA

IOWA

IOWA


(1) GONZAGA VS. (16) GEORGIA STATE

Thursday, 4:15 p.m. | TNT, March Madness Live: This is a big line to cover, even
for the No. 1 overall seed in Gonzaga. But I care not and don't think you
should, either. Its average scoring margin on the season was a whopping 22.5
points, and that factored in games against Duke, UCLA, Alabama and other top
schools. The Zags will roll, and I expect they will roll big. Pick: Gonzaga -23


ParrishNorlanderPalmBooneCobbPatterson

Spread

ZAGS -23

ZAGS -23

ZAGS -23

ZAGS -23

GAST +23

GAST +23

Straight up

ZAGS

ZAGS

ZAGS

ZAGS

ZAGS

ZAGS


(5) UCONN VS. (12) NEW MEXICO STATE

Thursday, 6:50 p.m. | TNT, March Madness Live: I don't necessarily love New
Mexico State as an underdog on the moneyline in this one, but I do think it can
cover the spread. The Aggies this season went 26-6 overall and half of those
losses were by four or fewer points. They're a tough, resilient bunch who are
well-coached under Chris Jans and have the personnel to give UConn a run for its
money. Pick: New Mexico State +6.5


ParrishNorlanderPalmBooneCobbPatterson

Spread

NMST +6.5

NMST +6.5

UCONN -6.5

NMST +6.5

NMST +6.5

UCONN -6.5

Straight up

UCONN

UCONN

UCONN

UCONN

UCONN

UCONN


(7) MURRAY STATE VS. (10) SAN FRANCISCO

Thursday, 9:40 p.m. | CBS, March Madness Live: San Francisco's a quality squad
that all season has put up real fights, including against Gonzaga in WCC play
and against MVC tourney champ Loyola-Chicago. But Murray State's a 30-2 club
that hasn't lost since Dec. 22 and can beat you inside and out with good balance
on both sides of the ball. I'll lay the point here with the Racers. Pick: Murray
State -1


ParrishNorlanderPalmBooneCobbPatterson

Spread

MURST -1

MURST -1

MURST -1

MURST -1

MURST -1

MURST -1

Straight up

MURST

MURST

MURST

MURST

MURST

MURST

Get every pick, every play, every upset and fill out your bracket with our
help! Visit SportsLine now to see which teams will make and break your
bracket and who will cut down the nets, all from the model that beat over 92% of
all CBS Sports brackets for the second time in three tournaments!


















OUR LATEST STORIES

MARCH MADNESS 2022 BRACKET PICKS, MATCHUPS TO WATCH

CBS SPORTS STAFF • 3 MIN READ

WOMEN'S NCAA TOURNAMENT 2022: WICHITA SCORES, TV TIMES

SHANNA MCCARRISTON • 1 MIN READ

NCAA WOMEN'S TOURNAMENT 2022: BRIDGEPORT SCORES

SHANNA MCCARRISTON • 1 MIN READ

WOMEN'S NCAA TOURNAMENT 2022: SPOKANE SCORES, TV TIMES

CHRIS BENGEL • 1 MIN READ

WOMEN'S NCAA TOURNAMENT 2022: GREENSBORO SCORES, TIMES

CHRIS BENGEL • 1 MIN READ

WOMEN'S MARCH MADNESS 2022 BRACKET PICKS, PREDICTIONS

CBS SPORTS STAFF • 1 MIN READ

Watch Now:


 * BEST CANDIDATES TO PULL OFF NO. 12 VS. NO. 5 UPSET
   
   Zachary Pereles 6 min read
   


 * EXPERT PICKS FOR ROUND 1 GAMES
   
   Kyle Boone 4 min read
   


 * THURSDAY'S MARCH MADNESS STORYLINES
   
   Chip Patterson 5 min read
   


 * RANKING ALL 32 NCAA FIRST-ROUND GAMES
   
   David Cobb 14 min read
   


 * CULTURE CHANGE STILL WORKING FOR BAYLOR
   
   Kevin Flaherty 13 min read
   


 * MARCH MADNESS SCHEDULE: TV INFO, STREAMING GUIDE
   
   David Cobb 3 min read
   


 * LOUISVILLE SET TO HIRE FORMER STANDOUT KENNY PAYNE
   
   Kyle Boone 1 min read
   


 * TRAVIS STEELE OUT AS COACH AT XAVIER AFTER FOUR SEASONS
   
   Kyle Boone 1 min read
   


 * NIT: DAYTON, BYU, WAKE FOREST WIN ROUND 1 GAMES
   
   David Cobb 1 min read
   


 * ZAGS TITLE FAVS HEADING INTO BIG DANCE
   
   Kyle Boone 1 min read
   

 * 
 * 
 * 
 * 
 * 

 * Help
 * About Us
 * Careers
 * Newsletters
 * Mobile Apps
 * Closed Captioning
 * Privacy Policy
 * Cookies Policy
 * Terms
 * Do Not Sell My Personal Information

SportsLine.com


© 2004-2022 CBS Interactive. All Rights Reserved.

CBS Sports is a registered trademark of CBS Broadcasting Inc. Commissioner.com
is a registered trademark of CBS Interactive Inc.

Images by Getty Images and US Presswire


Manage Cookies



REVIEW AND MANAGE YOUR COOKIE SETTINGS




YOUR PRIVACY

YOUR PRIVACY

This page provides an overview of our use of cookies and similar technologies
(from here we will refer to all those as “Cookies”) and how to manage them. For
more information please visit our Cookie Policy and our Privacy Policy.

When you visit our properties and use our products and services (“Services”), we
use Cookies to analyse and measure our performance, customize content and serve
personalized advertisements. We may place our own Cookies (first-party Cookies)
or allow our service providers to place Cookies (third-party Cookies) on your
device and collect information such as your device ID, browser type and IP
address so they can help us better understand your interaction with our
Services. Advertisers and other advertising technology partners may also use
their own third-party Cookies to collect information about your visits, deliver
advertisements tailored to your interests, keep track of the number of views of
a specific advertisement, analyses the effectiveness of advertisements, or
provide auditing, research and reporting for advertisers. Such third parties may
also match you to an existing interest category (e.g. automobiles) that they’ve
developed and provide you with more relevant advertising over time and across
different websites.

When you click on save settings below, your preferences will be saved. You can
change your settings at any time by using the consent settings module. Note that
saving settings is linked to the particular browser and/or device you use to
visit our Services. Saving your settings within one particular Service will not
affect your choices on other ViacomCBS Services, or if you visit this Service
with another device or from a different browser. In addition, it won’t affect
any of your activities on third-party services. You have other choices to manage
cookies and other tracking technologies on the internet such as using industry
choice programs or managing your preferences within your browsers or devices.
For more Information refer to Cookies Policy and Privacy Policy


 * ESSENTIAL
   
   ESSENTIAL
   
   Always Active
   Essential
   
   These cookies are essential for the proper functioning of our Services.
   Essential cookies cannot be switched off in our systems. You can set your
   device to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the
   Service will not work.
   
   Cookies Details‎


 * ANALYTIC & PERFORMANCE
   
   ANALYTIC & PERFORMANCE
   
   Analytic & Performance
   
   These Cookies allow us to collect information about how visitors use our
   properties. Some examples include counting visits and traffic sources, so we
   can measure and improve the performance of our services. If you do not allow
   these Cookies we will not know when users have visited our properties and
   will not be able to monitor performance.
   
   Cookies Details‎


 * FUNCTIONAL
   
   FUNCTIONAL
   
   Functional
   
   These Cookies enable the services to provide enhanced functionality and
   personalization. They may be set by us or by third party providers whose
   services we have added to our services. If you do not allow these Cookies
   then some or all of these services may not function properly.
   
   Cookies Details‎


 * MARKETING AND ADVERTISING
   
   MARKETING AND ADVERTISING
   
   Marketing and Advertising
   
   These Cookies may be set by us or through our services by our advertising
   partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your
   interests and show you relevant advertising on this and on other properties.
   If you do not allow these Cookies, you will still see ads, but you will
   experience less relevant advertising.
   
   Cookies Details‎


 * SOCIAL MEDIA
   
   SOCIAL MEDIA
   
   Social Media
   
   These Cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added
   to the services to enable you to share our content with your friends and
   networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites,
   building up a profile of your interests to show you relevant content and
   advertisements on the relevant social networks. If you do not allow these
   Cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.
   
   Cookies Details‎

Back Button


ADVERTISING COOKIES

Filter Button
Consent Leg.Interest
Select All Vendors
Select All Vendors
Select All Hosts

Select All

 * REPLACE-WITH-DYANMIC-HOST-ID
   
   
   
   View Third Party Cookies
   
    * Name
      cookie name



Clear Filters

Information storage and access
Apply
Save Settings Reject All Accept All


We use cookies and similar technologies to understand how you use our services,
improve your experience and serve you personalized content and advertising as
described in our Cookies Policy and Privacy Policy.

Accept All Reject All
Manage Cookies