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MORE PAY BOOSTS POSSIBLE THIS YEAR AMID TIGHT LABOUR MARKET, INFLATION: EXPERTS


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MORE PAY BOOSTS POSSIBLE THIS YEAR AMID TIGHT LABOUR MARKET, INFLATION: EXPERTS


MORE PAY BOOSTS POSSIBLE THIS YEAR AMID TIGHT LABOUR MARKET, INFLATION: EXPERTS

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'SOMEBODY AT SOME TIME HAS TO PAY'

Economist Don Drummond says to bring down inflation, the government would have
had to raise taxes or cut spending in previous budgets.

 * Adena Ali
   

 * The Canadian Press
 * Staff
 * Contact

Published June 20, 2022 3:49 p.m. GMT
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The combination of a fiercely competitive job market and the still-rising cost
of living will likely lead to more companies boosting employee pay this year,
experts say.

RBC economist Claire Fan says given the current labour environment, "wage gains
might still accelerate."

"Elevated demand for workers is firmly bumping up against limited supply and
companies will need to do what they can to compete in an extremely competitive
environment. And that includes raising wages," she said.

The latest Canadian jobs report revealed wage gains for permanent workers
reached 4.5 per cent in May. When soaring consumer prices are factored in, those
gains don't mean all that much, but it is a departure from the wage stagnation
Canada has faced.


RELATED STORIES

 * As food prices soar, farmers say they're not being paid more
 * Recession concerns have older Canadians worried about retirement, pension
   plans
 * High inflation expectations raise stakes for Bank of Canada ahead of CPI data
 * Freeland's 'affordability plan' will help Canadians with inflation, but not
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Canada's big banks are some of the companies announcing increases to employee
pay in recent months. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce is one of the latest
ones to do so.

Like its rivals, CIBC is gearing up to raise its base salary by three per cent
come July. It is targeting workers in the first six levels of the bank,
primarily those who regularly interact with clients face-to-face or through
technology.

The bank is also increasing its minimum wage from $17 to $20 next month.

"They are the ones that feel the greatest impact from inflation," CIBC CEO
Victor Dodig said in an interview.

In addition to the $3 minimum wage increase, CIBC plans to push that amount to
$25 by 2025. Dodig says the bank "plans to stick to that target."

And he doesn't believe the pay boosts will have any sort of negative affect on
CIBC's bottom line.

With corporate profits rising by $29 billion in the first quarter of this year,
Fan thinks many companies can absorb pay increases.

"Companies should have some buffer to withstand higher wages given extremely
elevated consumer demand at the moment which is expected to continue to support
business output, at least until the end of year," she said.

Stephanie Ross, director of labour studies at McMaster University believes wage
increases are "inevitable" in the current climate.

"Employers are going to have to shoulder greater risk than they have been if
they want to address all the interruptions in services and supply chains we've
been seeing," she said. "This is a big departure from the last 40 years,
frankly, where many countries' and companies' economic growth strategies have
been premised on low wages and precarious work."

She warns, however, that there will be significant negative effects on workers,
like layoffs, if the Bank of Canada deflates the economy too much through
interest rate hikes.

Wage increases is one of the variables the central bank is watching as it
decides how much it is going to raise interest rates next month and beyond.

The Bank of Canada has increased its key interest rate by half a percentage
point twice in recent months, bringing it to 1.5 per cent in June, in an effort
to tame the country's out-of-control inflation, which now sits at 6.8 per cent.

With the U.S. Federal Reserve hiking its key interest rate by three quarters of
a percentage point last Wednesday there is a sense among some economists that
Canada's central bank could follow suit in July, while others expect another
half percentage point.

If inflation manages to come back closer to the Bank of Canada's two per cent
target, that's where Fan expects wage growth to eventually trend to.

"The Bank of Canada, similar to the U.S. Fed, has deemed the current economic
environment in excess demand, and that's true for labour market conditions as
well," Fan said.

"Tighter monetary policy will help soak up that excess demand, and restore some
balance into the labour markets such that supply of workers has time to catch
up, and wage growth can then be normalized to levels close to the target range."

This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 20, 2022.

RELATED IMAGES

A red light on Bay Street in Canada's financial district is shown in Toronto on
Wednesday, March 18, 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette


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 * As food prices soar, farmers say they're not being paid more
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   immediately: economist
 * Four of the five most expensive cities on either side of the border are
   Canadian: study

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