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5.27.1 Accessibility statementSkip to main content Democracy Dies in Darkness SubscribeSign in ElectionsElection 2024 Presidential polls Early voting Harris’s policy positions Trump’s policy positions Swing states Paths to victory House races to watch Senate races to watch Post Pulse WHO IS AHEAD IN HARRIS VS. TRUMP 2024 PRESIDENTIAL POLLS RIGHT NOW? Our polling average | The current leader in the presidential race, based on an average of national and state polls Warning: This graphic requires JavaScript. Please enable JavaScript for the best experience. Updated October 29, 2024 By Lenny Bronner , Diane Napolitano , Kati Perry and Luis Melgar Share Comment on this storyComment Add to your saved stories Save What’s changed: With just over a week until Election Day, our polling averages continue to show the presidential race getting closer and closer. Vice President Kamala Harris’s lead in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin has dropped to one percentage point. She also leads nationally and in Michigan and Nevada. Trump still leads in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. Harris is leading in 4 of the 7 battleground states that are most likely to determine the outcome of the election. WITHIN A NORMAL-SIZED POLLING ERROR Our 2024 average Shift in past week gNevada Harris <1 Trump +0.1 aNorth Carolina Trump +1 Trump +0.2 lPennsylvania Harris +1 Trump +0.3 vWisconsin Harris +1 Trump +0.4 JGeorgia Trump +2 Harris +0.1 VMichigan Harris +2 Harris +0.2 DArizona Trump +2 No shift Click on a state to see more details The Washington Post is gathering the best available national and state-level polling data and factoring how citizens in each state voted in the last two presidential elections to calculate which candidate voters currently favor in the presidential race. Every state is within a normal-sized polling error of 3.5 points and could go either way. Jump to details for each battleground state Select a state We’ll update our polling averages at least once per day. Remember, this isn’t a presidential forecast, but instead a snapshot of the state of public opinion. Want to know more about how our polling averages work? Read our methodology, or learn about what sets our model apart. Story continues below advertisement HOW THE NATIONAL POLLS HAVE CHANGED SINCE JANUARY The presidential election isn’t decided by the national popular vote, which is why we rely heavily on state polls in our polling averages. However, national polls are still useful for understanding the overall state of the race. They tend to pick up changes in the overall environment quicker than state-level polls, and our polling averages do draw on national polls, especially in states where we don’t have a lot of high-quality polls. Here’s how the presidential race has changed in national polls since January. Each dot represents one poll Jan.Feb.MarchAprilMayJuneJulyJuly 21Bidendrops outSept.Oct.Nov. 5Trump +9+6+30+3+6Harris +990% confidencerange90% confidencerangeTrump leadsHarris leadsHarris +2Harris +2 Polls from July 21 and earlier represent a Biden-Trump matchup NATIONAL POLLS Our model includes 70 polls and then adjusts them to calculate a margin in a head-to-head matchup (excluding responses like “undecided.”) Pollster Harris Trump Dates Sample size CBS News 50 % 49 % Oct. 23 - Oct. 25 2,154 NYT/Siena College 48 % 48 % Oct. 20 - Oct. 23 2,516 CNN 47 % 47 % Oct. 20 - Oct. 23 1,704 Wall Street Journal 45 % 47 % Oct. 19 - Oct. 22 1,500 Economist/YouGov 49 % 46 % Oct. 19 - Oct. 22 1,293 ABC-Ipsos 51 % 47 % Oct. 18 - Oct. 22 1,913 The Times (UK)/SAY/YouGov 48 % 45 % Oct. 18 - Oct. 21 1,189 Monmouth University 47 % 44 % Oct. 17 - Oct. 21 802 Reuters-Ipsos 48 % 45 % Oct. 16 - Oct. 21 3,307 CNBC 46 % 48 % Oct. 15 - Oct. 19 1,000 Suffolk University/USA Today 50 % 49 % Oct. 14 - Oct. 18 1,000 Economist/YouGov 49 % 45 % Oct. 12 - Oct. 15 1,314 Fox News 48 % 50 % Oct. 11 - Oct. 14 870 Fairleigh Dickinson Univ. 50 % 47 % Oct. 8 - Oct. 14 806 Reuters-Ipsos 47 % 44 % Oct. 11 - Oct. 13 769 CBS/YouGov 51 % 48 % Oct. 8 - Oct. 11 2,719 Marist College 52 % 47 % Oct. 8 - Oct. 10 1,404 Marquette Law School 50 % 50 % Oct. 1 - Oct. 10 699 NBC News 48 % 48 % Oct. 4 - Oct. 8 1,000 ABC-Ipsos 51 % 48 % Oct. 4 - Oct. 8 1,714 Economist/YouGov 49 % 45 % Oct. 6 - Oct. 7 1,230 Reuters-Ipsos 47 % 45 % Oct. 4 - Oct. 7 969 Pew Research Center 48 % 47 % Sept. 30 - Oct. 6 4,025 NYT/Siena College 49 % 46 % Sept. 29 - Oct. 6 3,385 Yahoo/YouGov 48 % 47 % Oct. 2 - Oct. 4 1,032 Economist/YouGov 49 % 46 % Sept. 29 - Oct. 1 1,261 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist 50 % 48 % Sept. 27 - Oct. 1 1,294 Ipsos 48 % 44 % Sept. 25 - Sept. 30 1,313 McCourtney Institute/YouGov 48 % 45 % Sept. 23 - Sept. 27 848 Economist/YouGov 49 % 46 % Sept. 21 - Sept. 24 1,220 Reuters-Ipsos 50 % 44 % Sept. 21 - Sept. 23 785 Quinnipiac University 48 % 48 % Sept. 19 - Sept. 22 1,728 CNN 48 % 47 % Sept. 19 - Sept. 22 2,074 CBS/YouGov 52 % 48 % Sept. 18 - Sept. 20 3,121 Economist/YouGov 49 % 45 % Sept. 15 - Sept. 17 1,441 NBC News 49 % 44 % Sept. 13 - Sept. 17 1,000 Fox News 50 % 48 % Sept. 13 - Sept. 16 1,102 NYT/Siena College 47 % 47 % Sept. 11 - Sept. 16 2,437 Yahoo/YouGov 49 % 45 % Sept. 11 - Sept. 13 1,090 ABC-Ipsos 52 % 46 % Sept. 11 - Sept. 13 2,196 Reuters-Ipsos 47 % 42 % Sept. 11 - Sept. 12 1,405 The Times (UK)/SAY/YouGov 49 % 45 % Sept. 10 - Sept. 11 1,022 Economist/YouGov 45 % 45 % Sept. 8 - Sept. 10 1,462 NYT/Siena College 47 % 48 % Sept. 3 - Sept. 6 1,695 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist 49 % 48 % Sept. 3 - Sept. 5 1,529 KFF 46 % 45 % Aug. 26 - Sept. 4 1,084 19th News/SurveyMonkey 44 % 41 % Aug. 26 - Sept. 4 5,000 Economist/YouGov 47 % 45 % Sept. 1 - Sept. 3 1,382 Pew Research Center 49 % 49 % Aug. 26 - Sept. 2 5,000 Wall Street Journal 48 % 47 % Aug. 24 - Aug. 28 1,500 Suffolk University/USA Today 48 % 43 % Aug. 24 - Aug. 28 1,000 Reuters-Ipsos 45 % 41 % Aug. 21 - Aug. 28 3,562 Economist/YouGov 47 % 45 % Aug. 25 - Aug. 27 1,367 Quinnipiac University 49 % 48 % Aug. 23 - Aug. 27 1,611 ABC-Ipsos 52 % 46 % Aug. 23 - Aug. 27 1,627 Yahoo/YouGov 47 % 46 % Aug. 22 - Aug. 26 1,197 Fairleigh Dickinson Univ. 50 % 43 % Aug. 17 - Aug. 20 801 CBS/YouGov 51 % 48 % Aug. 14 - Aug. 16 3,253 Post-ABC-Ipsos 49 % 45 % Aug. 9 - Aug. 13 1,975 Fox News 49 % 50 % Aug. 9 - Aug. 12 1,105 Ipsos 49 % 47 % Aug. 2 - Aug. 7 1,342 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist 51 % 48 % Aug. 1 - Aug. 4 1,513 CNBC 46 % 48 % July 31 - Aug. 4 1,001 CBS/YouGov 50 % 49 % July 30 - Aug. 2 3,092 Marquette Law School 53 % 47 % July 24 - Aug. 1 683 Reuters-Ipsos 43 % 42 % July 26 - July 28 876 Wall Street Journal 47 % 49 % July 23 - July 25 1,000 NYT/Siena College 47 % 48 % July 22 - July 24 1,142 Reuters-Ipsos 44 % 42 % July 22 - July 23 1,018 CNN 46 % 49 % July 22 - July 23 1,631 Earlier Biden-Trump polls Pollster Biden Trump Dates Sample size Quinnipiac University 45 % 48 % July 19 - July 21 1,257 CBS/YouGov 47 % 52 % July 16 - July 18 2,241 Reuters-Ipsos 41 % 43 % July 16 - July 16 992 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist 50 % 48 % July 9 - July 10 1,174 Fox News 48 % 49 % July 7 - July 10 1,210 NBC News 43 % 45 % July 7 - July 9 800 Post-ABC-Ipsos 46 % 46 % July 5 - July 9 2,041 Pew Research Center 47 % 50 % July 1 - July 7 5,000 Reuters-Ipsos 40 % 40 % July 1 - July 2 892 Wall Street Journal 42 % 48 % June 29 - July 2 1,500 NYT/Siena College 43 % 49 % June 28 - July 2 1,532 CBS/YouGov 48 % 50 % June 28 - July 2 2,815 Yahoo/YouGov 43 % 45 % June 28 - July 1 1,176 CNN 43 % 49 % June 28 - June 30 1,045 NYT/Siena College 44 % 48 % June 20 - June 25 1,226 Quinnipiac University 45 % 49 % June 20 - June 24 1,405 CBS/YouGov 49 % 50 % June 17 - June 21 1,878 Fox News 50 % 48 % June 14 - June 17 1,095 Reuters-Ipsos 39 % 41 % June 12 - June 12 930 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist 49 % 49 % June 10 - June 12 1,184 CBS/YouGov 49 % 50 % June 5 - June 7 1,359 Yahoo/YouGov 46 % 44 % June 3 - June 6 1,244 Reuters-Ipsos 41 % 39 % May 30 - May 31 2,135 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist 50 % 48 % May 21 - May 23 1,261 Quinnipiac University 48 % 47 % May 16 - May 20 1,374 Marquette Law School 49 % 51 % May 6 - May 15 684 Yahoo/YouGov 45 % 45 % May 10 - May 13 1,201 Fox News 48 % 49 % May 10 - May 13 1,126 Ipsos 48 % 48 % May 7 - May 13 1,730 ABC-Ipsos 49 % 45 % April 25 - April 30 2,260 Marist College 50 % 48 % April 22 - April 25 1,109 Quinnipiac University 46 % 46 % April 18 - April 24 1,429 CNN 43 % 49 % April 18 - April 23 967 University of North Florida 45 % 47 % April 8 - April 20 745 Marist College 51 % 48 % April 16 - April 18 1,047 NBC News 44 % 46 % April 12 - April 16 1,000 Yahoo/YouGov 44 % 44 % April 11 - April 15 1,171 Pew Research Center 48 % 49 % April 8 - April 14 5,000 NYT/Siena College 45 % 46 % April 7 - April 11 1,059 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist 50 % 48 % March 25 - March 28 1,199 Marquette Law School 50 % 50 % March 18 - March 28 868 Quinnipiac University 48 % 45 % March 21 - March 25 1,407 CNBC 45 % 46 % March 15 - March 19 1,001 Grinnell College /Selzer 38 % 45 % March 11 - March 17 715 Economist/YouGov 42 % 44 % March 10 - March 12 1,365 Yahoo/YouGov 44 % 46 % March 8 - March 11 1,482 Economist/YouGov 42 % 44 % March 3 - March 5 1,450 CBS/YouGov 48 % 52 % Feb. 28 - March 1 1,436 Reuters-Ipsos 40 % 35 % Feb. 26 - Feb. 28 1,005 NYT/Siena College 43 % 48 % Feb. 25 - Feb. 28 980 Fox News 47 % 49 % Feb. 25 - Feb. 28 1,262 KFF 41 % 39 % Feb. 20 - Feb. 28 1,072 Wall Street Journal 45 % 47 % Feb. 21 - Feb. 28 1,745 Economist/YouGov 44 % 44 % Feb. 25 - Feb. 27 1,497 Economist/YouGov 42 % 43 % Feb. 18 - Feb. 20 1,358 Quinnipiac University 49 % 45 % Feb. 15 - Feb. 19 1,421 Marquette Law School 49 % 51 % Feb. 5 - Feb. 15 882 Economist/YouGov 44 % 44 % Feb. 11 - Feb. 13 1,468 YouGov 44 % 45 % Feb. 6 - Feb. 9 869 Ipsos 35 % 33 % Feb. 2 - Feb. 7 1,076 KFF 37 % 41 % Jan. 30 - Feb. 7 1,055 Economist/YouGov 43 % 44 % Feb. 4 - Feb. 6 1,399 YouGov 42 % 44 % Jan. 31 - Feb. 4 1,765 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist 48 % 47 % Jan. 29 - Feb. 1 1,441 Economist/YouGov 43 % 42 % Jan. 28 - Jan. 30 1,485 NBC News 42 % 47 % Jan. 26 - Jan. 30 1,000 CNN 45 % 49 % Jan. 26 - Jan. 30 983 YouGov 44 % 45 % Jan. 24 - Jan. 30 850 Yahoo/YouGov 44 % 45 % Jan. 25 - Jan. 29 1,069 Quinnipiac University 50 % 44 % Jan. 25 - Jan. 29 1,650 Economist/YouGov 43 % 44 % Jan. 21 - Jan. 23 1,497 Economist/YouGov 44 % 43 % Jan. 14 - Jan. 16 1,471 CBS/YouGov 48 % 50 % Jan. 10 - Jan. 12 1,906 Economist/YouGov 43 % 43 % Jan. 7 - Jan. 9 1,416 Ipsos 32 % 34 % Jan. 3 - Jan. 7 2,027 Economist/YouGov 44 % 44 % Dec. 31 - Jan. 2 1,339 Economist/YouGov 43 % 43 % Dec. 16 - Dec. 18 1,333 Yahoo/YouGov 44 % 44 % Dec. 14 - Dec. 18 1,027 Quinnipiac University 47 % 46 % Dec. 14 - Dec. 18 1,647 NYT/Siena College 44 % 46 % Dec. 10 - Dec. 14 1,016 Fox News 46 % 50 % Dec. 10 - Dec. 13 1,007 CNBC 42 % 48 % Dec. 8 - Dec. 12 1,046 Economist/YouGov 43 % 43 % Dec. 9 - Dec. 9 1,331 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist 49 % 48 % Dec. 4 - Dec. 7 1,129 Economist/YouGov 42 % 41 % Dec. 2 - Dec. 5 1,290 Wall Street Journal 43 % 47 % Nov. 29 - Dec. 4 1,500 Economist/YouGov 44 % 42 % Nov. 25 - Nov. 27 1,321 Economist/YouGov 42 % 43 % Nov. 11 - Nov. 14 1,271 Fox News 46 % 50 % Nov. 10 - Nov. 13 1,001 Yahoo/YouGov 42 % 44 % Nov. 9 - Nov. 13 1,058 Quinnipiac University 46 % 48 % Nov. 9 - Nov. 13 1,574 Marquette Law School 48 % 52 % Nov. 2 - Nov. 7 856 CBS/YouGov 48 % 51 % Oct. 30 - Nov. 3 1,759 CNN 45 % 49 % Oct. 27 - Nov. 2 1,271 Economist/YouGov 42 % 42 % Oct. 28 - Oct. 31 1,332 Quinnipiac University 47 % 46 % Oct. 26 - Oct. 30 1,610 Economist/YouGov 43 % 42 % Oct. 14 - Oct. 17 1,296 Grinnell College/Selzer 40 % 40 % Oct. 10 - Oct. 15 1,006 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist 49 % 46 % Oct. 11 - Oct. 11 1,218 Fox News 49 % 48 % Oct. 6 - Oct. 9 1,007 Show all polls Story continues below advertisement Advertisement THE STATE POLLS DRIVING OUR AVERAGES All polls vary. Polling averages help us incorporate polls that point in different directions and let us easily compare trends. Here is a look at the results of all of the polls since Harris entered the race that we’ve included in our averages. Fewer polls Harris leading More polls Fewer polls Trump leading More polls gNevada Harris <1 Our average aNorth Carolina Trump +1 lPennsylvania Harris +1 vWisconsin Harris +1 JGeorgia Trump +2 VMichigan Harris +2 DArizona Trump +2 +10 Harrisor more+5 Harris0+5 Trump+10 Trumpor more Click on a state to see more details Story continues below advertisement Advertisement THE POLLS COULD UNDERESTIMATE HARRIS’S OR TRUMP’S SUPPORT A polling average is the best way to understand the state of play in a presidential race, but as we know from previous presidential cycles, the polls aren’t always right. Take a look at how polling errors in the past three presidential elections would affect our current 2024 polling averages. 2024 margin of victory if the polls are off by as much as they were in ... 202020162012 Nevada Harris +1Our 2024polling averageWith 2016’spolling error North Carolina Trump +7 Pennsylvania Trump +4 Wisconsin Trump +5 Georgia Trump +3 Michigan Trump +2 Arizona Trump +4+10 Harris0+10 Trump Tied states are within a quarter-point margin in our polling average Or see what changes if the polls Select a value EXPLORE OUR POLLING AVERAGES IN EACH BATTLEGROUND STATE Jump to: D Arizona J Georgia V Michigan g Nevada a North Carolina l Pennsylvania v Wisconsin ARIZONA Trump +2 Our polling average has Trump leading by 2 points, but estimates from our model range from Trump +10 to Harris +6. HOW ARIZONA’S POLLS HAVE CHANGED SINCE JANUARY Each dot represents one poll Jan.Feb.MarchAprilMayJuneJulyJuly 21Bidendrops outSept.Oct.Nov. 5Trump +18+12+60+6+12Harris +1890% confidencerange90% confidencerangeTrump leadsHarris leadsTrump +2Trump +2 Polls from July 21 and earlier represent a Biden-Trump matchup HOW THE POLLS PERFORMED IN ARIZONA IN PREVIOUS ELECTIONS Final poll avg. Actual result Polls underestimated 2020 Biden <1 Biden <1 Trump by <1 2016 Trump +2 Trump +4 Trump by 2 2012 Romney +8 Romney +9 Romney by 1 ARIZONA POLLS Our model includes 14 polls and then adjusts them to calculate a margin in a head-to-head matchup (excluding responses like “undecided.”) National polls also affect the estimate. Pollster Harris Trump Dates Sample size Marist College 49 % 50 % Oct. 17 - Oct. 22 1,193 CBS/YouGov 48 % 51 % Oct. 11 - Oct. 16 1,435 Washington Post-Schar School 46 % 49 % Sept. 30 - Oct. 15 579 NYT/Siena College 46 % 51 % Oct. 7 - Oct. 10 808 Wall Street Journal 48 % 46 % Sept. 28 - Oct. 8 600 AARP 48 % 50 % Sept. 24 - Oct. 1 600 Suffolk University/USA Today 42 % 48 % Sept. 21 - Sept. 24 500 Fox News 48 % 51 % Sept. 20 - Sept. 24 1,021 Marist College 49 % 50 % Sept. 19 - Sept. 24 1,264 NYT/Siena College 45 % 50 % Sept. 17 - Sept. 21 713 The Times (UK)/SAY/YouGov 45 % 47 % Aug. 23 - Sept. 3 900 CNN 44 % 49 % Aug. 23 - Aug. 29 682 Fox News 50 % 49 % Aug. 23 - Aug. 26 1,014 NYT/Siena College 50 % 45 % Aug. 8 - Aug. 15 677 Earlier Biden-Trump polls Pollster Biden Trump Dates Sample size Fox News 46 % 51 % June 1 - June 4 1,095 CBS/YouGov 47 % 52 % May 10 - May 16 1,192 NYT/Siena College 43 % 49 % April 28 - May 9 626 Wall Street Journal 42 % 47 % March 17 - March 24 600 Fox News 45 % 49 % March 7 - March 11 1,121 NYT/Siena College 44 % 49 % Oct. 22 - Nov. 2 603 Show all polls GEORGIA Trump +2 Our polling average has Trump leading by 2 points, but estimates from our model range from Trump +10 to Harris +6. HOW GEORGIA’S POLLS HAVE CHANGED SINCE JANUARY Each dot represents one poll Jan.Feb.MarchAprilMayJuneJulyJuly 21Bidendrops outSept.Oct.Nov. 5Trump +18+12+60+6+12Harris +1890% confidencerange90% confidencerangeTrump leadsHarris leadsTrump +2Trump +2 Polls from July 21 and earlier represent a Biden-Trump matchup HOW THE POLLS PERFORMED IN GEORGIA IN PREVIOUS ELECTIONS Final poll avg. Actual result Polls underestimated 2020 Trump <1 Biden <1 Biden by <1 2016 Trump +5 Trump +5 Trump by <1 2012 Romney +13 Romney +8 Obama by 5 GEORGIA POLLS Our model includes 17 polls and then adjusts them to calculate a margin in a head-to-head matchup (excluding responses like “undecided.”) National polls also affect the estimate. Pollster Harris Trump Dates Sample size Marist College 49 % 49 % Oct. 17 - Oct. 22 1,193 AJC/University of Georgia 43 % 47 % Oct. 7 - Oct. 16 1,000 Washington Post-Schar School 51 % 47 % Sept. 30 - Oct. 15 719 Quinnipiac University 46 % 52 % Oct. 10 - Oct. 14 1,328 Wall Street Journal 48 % 46 % Sept. 28 - Oct. 8 600 Quinnipiac University 45 % 50 % Sept. 25 - Sept. 29 942 Fox News 51 % 48 % Sept. 20 - Sept. 24 1,006 CBS/YouGov 49 % 51 % Sept. 20 - Sept. 24 1,417 Marist College 49 % 50 % Sept. 19 - Sept. 24 1,220 NYT/Siena College 45 % 49 % Sept. 17 - Sept. 21 682 AJC/University of Georgia 44 % 47 % Sept. 9 - Sept. 15 1,000 Quinnipiac University 46 % 49 % Sept. 4 - Sept. 8 969 The Times (UK)/SAY/YouGov 45 % 47 % Aug. 23 - Sept. 3 1,000 CNN 48 % 47 % Aug. 23 - Aug. 29 617 Fox News 50 % 48 % Aug. 23 - Aug. 26 1,014 NYT/Siena College 46 % 50 % Aug. 9 - Aug. 14 661 AARP 48 % 48 % July 24 - July 31 600 Earlier Biden-Trump polls Pollster Biden Trump Dates Sample size Quinnipiac University 44 % 49 % May 30 - June 3 1,203 NYT/Siena College 41 % 50 % April 28 - May 9 1,046 Fox News 45 % 51 % April 11 - April 16 1,128 Wall Street Journal 43 % 44 % March 17 - March 24 600 Marist College 47 % 51 % March 11 - March 14 1,283 CBS/YouGov 48 % 51 % March 4 - March 11 1,126 Fox News 43 % 51 % Jan. 26 - Jan. 30 1,119 AJC/University of Georgia 37 % 45 % Jan. 3 - Jan. 11 1,007 CNN 44 % 49 % Nov. 30 - Dec. 7 1,068 AJC/University of Georgia 44 % 45 % Oct. 26 - Nov. 3 1,002 NYT/Siena College 43 % 49 % Oct. 22 - Nov. 2 629 Show all polls MICHIGAN Harris +2 Our polling average has Harris leading by 2 points, but estimates from our model range from Trump +6 to Harris +10. HOW MICHIGAN’S POLLS HAVE CHANGED SINCE JANUARY Each dot represents one poll Jan.Feb.MarchAprilMayJuneJulyJuly 21Bidendrops outSept.Oct.Nov. 5Trump +18+12+60+6+12Harris +1890% confidencerange90% confidencerangeTrump leadsHarris leadsHarris +2Harris +2 Polls from July 21 and earlier represent a Biden-Trump matchup HOW THE POLLS PERFORMED IN MICHIGAN IN PREVIOUS ELECTIONS Final poll avg. Actual result Polls underestimated 2020 Biden +6 Biden +3 Trump by 3 2016 Clinton +4 Trump <1 Trump by 4 2012 Obama +6 Obama +9 Obama by 4 MICHIGAN POLLS Our model includes 21 polls and then adjusts them to calculate a margin in a head-to-head matchup (excluding responses like “undecided.”) National polls also affect the estimate. Pollster Harris Trump Dates Sample size Detroit News/WDIV 47 % 44 % Oct. 22 - Oct. 24 600 Quinnipiac University 50 % 46 % Oct. 17 - Oct. 21 1,136 Washington Post-Schar School 49 % 47 % Sept. 30 - Oct. 15 677 MRG 45 % 44 % Oct. 7 - Oct. 11 600 Michigan State University 52 % 48 % Sept. 23 - Oct. 10 845 AARP 48 % 49 % Oct. 2 - Oct. 8 600 Wall Street Journal 49 % 47 % Sept. 28 - Oct. 8 600 Quinnipiac University 47 % 51 % Oct. 3 - Oct. 7 1,007 Detroit News/WDIV 47 % 44 % Oct. 1 - Oct. 4 600 NYT/Siena College 48 % 47 % Sept. 21 - Sept. 26 688 Suffolk University/USA Today 48 % 45 % Sept. 16 - Sept. 19 500 UMass Lowell-YouGov 48 % 43 % Sept. 11 - Sept. 19 650 Marist College 52 % 47 % Sept. 12 - Sept. 17 1,138 Quinnipiac University 51 % 46 % Sept. 12 - Sept. 16 905 CBS/YouGov 50 % 49 % Sept. 3 - Sept. 6 1,077 The Times (UK)/SAY/YouGov 48 % 43 % Aug. 23 - Sept. 3 1,000 Detroit News/WDIV 44 % 45 % Aug. 26 - Aug. 29 600 CNN 48 % 43 % Aug. 23 - Aug. 29 708 AARP 48 % 48 % Aug. 7 - Aug. 11 600 NYT/Siena College 50 % 46 % Aug. 5 - Aug. 8 619 Fox News 49 % 49 % July 22 - July 24 1,012 Earlier Biden-Trump polls Pollster Biden Trump Dates Sample size NYT/Siena College 47 % 46 % April 28 - May 9 616 CBS/YouGov 51 % 49 % April 19 - April 25 1,262 Fox News 46 % 49 % April 11 - April 16 1,126 Wall Street Journal 45 % 48 % March 17 - March 24 600 CNN 42 % 50 % March 13 - March 18 1,097 Quinnipiac University 45 % 48 % March 8 - March 12 1,487 Fox News 45 % 47 % Feb. 8 - Feb. 12 1,106 Detroit News/WDIV 39 % 47 % Jan. 2 - Jan. 6 600 NYT/Siena College 43 % 48 % Oct. 22 - Nov. 3 616 Show all polls NEVADA Harris <1 Our polling average has Harris leading by less than a point, but estimates from our model range from Trump +9 to Harris +9. HOW NEVADA’S POLLS HAVE CHANGED SINCE JANUARY Each dot represents one poll Jan.Feb.MarchAprilMayJuneJulyJuly 21Bidendrops outSept.Oct.Nov. 5Trump +18+12+60+6+12Harris +1890% confidencerange90% confidencerangeTrump leadsHarris leadsHarris <1Harris <1 Polls from July 21 and earlier represent a Biden-Trump matchup HOW THE POLLS PERFORMED IN NEVADA IN PREVIOUS ELECTIONS Final poll avg. Actual result Polls underestimated 2020 Biden +5 Biden +2 Trump by 3 2016 Clinton +1 Clinton +2 Clinton by <1 2012 Obama +3 Obama +7 Obama by 3 NEVADA POLLS Our model includes 6 polls and then adjusts them to calculate a margin in a head-to-head matchup (excluding responses like “undecided.”) National polls also affect the estimate. Pollster Harris Trump Dates Sample size Washington Post-Schar School 48 % 48 % Sept. 30 - Oct. 15 640 Wall Street Journal 43 % 49 % Sept. 28 - Oct. 8 600 The Times (UK)/SAY/YouGov 49 % 46 % Aug. 23 - Sept. 3 800 CNN 48 % 47 % Aug. 23 - Aug. 29 626 Fox News 50 % 48 % Aug. 23 - Aug. 26 1,026 NYT/Siena College 47 % 48 % Aug. 12 - Aug. 15 677 Earlier Biden-Trump polls Pollster Biden Trump Dates Sample size AARP 45 % 48 % June 12 - June 18 1,368 Fox News 45 % 50 % June 1 - June 4 1,069 NYT/Siena College 38 % 51 % April 28 - May 9 614 Wall Street Journal 44 % 48 % March 17 - March 24 600 NYT/Siena College 41 % 52 % Oct. 22 - Nov. 3 611 CNN 46 % 45 % Sept. 29 - Oct. 3 1,251 Show all polls NORTH CAROLINA Trump +1 Our polling average has Trump leading by 1 point, but estimates from our model range from Trump +9 to Harris +7. HOW NORTH CAROLINA’S POLLS HAVE CHANGED SINCE JANUARY Each dot represents one poll Jan.Feb.MarchAprilMayJuneJulyJuly 21Bidendrops outSept.Oct.Nov. 5Trump +18+12+60+6+12Harris +1890% confidencerange90% confidencerangeTrump leadsHarris leadsTrump +1Trump +1 Polls from July 21 and earlier represent a Biden-Trump matchup HOW THE POLLS PERFORMED IN NORTH CAROLINA IN PREVIOUS ELECTIONS Final poll avg. Actual result Polls underestimated 2020 Biden <1 Trump +1 Trump by 2 2016 Clinton +2 Trump +4 Trump by 6 2012 Romney +3 Romney +2 Obama by 1 NORTH CAROLINA POLLS Our model includes 17 polls and then adjusts them to calculate a margin in a head-to-head matchup (excluding responses like “undecided.”) National polls also affect the estimate. Pollster Harris Trump Dates Sample size Marist College 48 % 50 % Oct. 17 - Oct. 22 1,226 Elon University 46 % 46 % Oct. 10 - Oct. 17 800 Washington Post-Schar School 47 % 50 % Sept. 30 - Oct. 15 958 Quinnipiac University 50 % 47 % Oct. 10 - Oct. 14 1,031 Wall Street Journal 47 % 47 % Sept. 28 - Oct. 8 600 Washington Post 48 % 50 % Sept. 25 - Sept. 29 1,001 Quinnipiac University 48 % 49 % Sept. 25 - Sept. 29 953 CNN 49 % 50 % Sept. 20 - Sept. 25 931 Fox News 49 % 50 % Sept. 20 - Sept. 24 787 Marist College 49 % 49 % Sept. 19 - Sept. 24 1,348 NYT/Siena College 47 % 49 % Sept. 17 - Sept. 21 682 AARP 47 % 50 % Sept. 11 - Sept. 17 1,324 Elon University 46 % 45 % Sept. 4 - Sept. 13 800 Quinnipiac University 50 % 47 % Sept. 4 - Sept. 8 940 The Times (UK)/SAY/YouGov 46 % 47 % Aug. 23 - Sept. 3 1,000 Fox News 49 % 50 % Aug. 23 - Aug. 26 999 NYT/Siena College 49 % 47 % Aug. 9 - Aug. 14 655 Earlier Biden-Trump polls Pollster Biden Trump Dates Sample size Mason-Dixon 43 % 49 % April 9 - April 13 625 Quinnipiac University 46 % 48 % April 4 - April 8 1,401 Wall Street Journal 43 % 49 % March 17 - March 24 600 Marist College 48 % 51 % March 11 - March 14 1,197 Fox News 45 % 50 % Feb. 8 - Feb. 12 1,099 Show all polls PENNSYLVANIA Harris +1 Our polling average has Harris leading by 1 point, but estimates from our model range from Trump +6 to Harris +9. HOW PENNSYLVANIA’S POLLS HAVE CHANGED SINCE JANUARY Each dot represents one poll Jan.Feb.MarchAprilMayJuneJulyJuly 21Bidendrops outSept.Oct.Nov. 5Trump +18+12+60+6+12Harris +1890% confidencerange90% confidencerangeTrump leadsHarris leadsHarris +1Harris +1 Polls from July 21 and earlier represent a Biden-Trump matchup HOW THE POLLS PERFORMED IN PENNSYLVANIA IN PREVIOUS ELECTIONS Final poll avg. Actual result Polls underestimated 2020 Biden +4 Biden +1 Trump by 3 2016 Clinton +4 Trump <1 Trump by 5 2012 Obama +6 Obama +5 Negligible miss PENNSYLVANIA POLLS Our model includes 23 polls and then adjusts them to calculate a margin in a head-to-head matchup (excluding responses like “undecided.”) National polls also affect the estimate. Pollster Harris Trump Dates Sample size Franklin & Marshall College 49 % 50 % Oct. 9 - Oct. 20 583 Washington Post-Schar School 49 % 47 % Sept. 30 - Oct. 15 703 NYT/Siena College/Inquirer 50 % 47 % Oct. 7 - Oct. 10 857 UMass Lowell/YouGov 46 % 45 % Oct. 2 - Oct. 9 800 Wall Street Journal 46 % 47 % Sept. 28 - Oct. 8 600 Quinnipiac University 49 % 47 % Oct. 3 - Oct. 7 1,412 Fox News 49 % 49 % Sept. 20 - Sept. 24 775 AARP 50 % 47 % Sept. 17 - Sept. 24 600 Muhlenberg College 48 % 48 % Sept. 16 - Sept. 19 450 UMass Lowell-YouGov 48 % 46 % Sept. 11 - Sept. 19 800 Spotlight PA/Mass Inc. 52 % 47 % Sept. 12 - Sept. 18 800 Marist College 49 % 49 % Sept. 12 - Sept. 17 1,476 Washington Post 48 % 48 % Sept. 12 - Sept. 16 1,003 Quinnipiac University 51 % 46 % Sept. 12 - Sept. 16 1,331 NYT/Siena College/Inquirer 50 % 46 % Sept. 11 - Sept. 16 1,082 Franklin & Marshall College 49 % 46 % Sept. 4 - Sept. 15 890 Suffolk University/USA Today 49 % 46 % Sept. 11 - Sept. 14 500 CBS/YouGov 50 % 50 % Sept. 3 - Sept. 6 1,078 The Times (UK)/SAY/YouGov 46 % 45 % Aug. 23 - Sept. 3 1,000 CNN 47 % 47 % Aug. 23 - Aug. 29 789 Quinnipiac University 50 % 47 % Aug. 8 - Aug. 12 1,738 NYT/Siena College 50 % 46 % Aug. 5 - Aug. 8 693 Fox News 49 % 49 % July 22 - July 24 1,034 Earlier Biden-Trump polls Pollster Biden Trump Dates Sample size NYT/Siena College 45 % 48 % July 9 - July 11 872 NYT/Siena College 45 % 48 % April 28 - May 9 1,023 AARP 45 % 49 % April 24 - April 30 600 CBS/YouGov 49 % 50 % April 19 - April 25 1,288 Muhlenberg College 41 % 44 % April 15 - April 25 417 Fox News 48 % 48 % April 11 - April 16 1,141 Franklin & Marshall College 48 % 38 % March 20 - March 31 430 Wall Street Journal 44 % 47 % March 17 - March 24 600 CNN 46 % 46 % March 13 - March 18 1,132 Fox News 47 % 49 % March 7 - March 11 1,149 Franklin & Marshall College 43 % 42 % Jan. 17 - Jan. 28 1,006 Quinnipiac University 49 % 46 % Jan. 4 - Jan. 8 1,680 Muhlenberg College 42 % 41 % Nov. 20 - Dec. 13 421 NYT/Siena College 44 % 48 % Oct. 22 - Nov. 3 600 Show all polls WISCONSIN Harris +1 Our polling average has Harris leading by 1 point, but estimates from our model range from Trump +7 to Harris +9. HOW WISCONSIN’S POLLS HAVE CHANGED SINCE JANUARY Each dot represents one poll Jan.Feb.MarchAprilMayJuneJulyJuly 21Bidendrops outSept.Oct.Nov. 5Trump +18+12+60+6+12Harris +1890% confidencerange90% confidencerangeTrump leadsHarris leadsHarris +1Harris +1 Polls from July 21 and earlier represent a Biden-Trump matchup HOW THE POLLS PERFORMED IN WISCONSIN IN PREVIOUS ELECTIONS Final poll avg. Actual result Polls underestimated 2020 Biden +5 Biden <1 Trump by 5 2016 Clinton +6 Trump <1 Trump by 7 2012 Obama +5 Obama +7 Obama by 2 WISCONSIN POLLS Our model includes 18 polls and then adjusts them to calculate a margin in a head-to-head matchup (excluding responses like “undecided.”) National polls also affect the estimate. Pollster Harris Trump Dates Sample size Suffolk University/USA Today 47 % 48 % Oct. 20 - Oct. 23 500 Quinnipiac University 48 % 48 % Oct. 17 - Oct. 21 1,108 Washington Post-Schar School 50 % 47 % Sept. 30 - Oct. 15 695 Wall Street Journal 48 % 48 % Sept. 28 - Oct. 8 600 Quinnipiac University 47 % 49 % Oct. 3 - Oct. 7 1,073 NYT/Siena College 49 % 47 % Sept. 21 - Sept. 26 680 Marquette Law School 52 % 48 % Sept. 18 - Sept. 26 798 Wisconsin Watch/MassINC 53 % 46 % Sept. 12 - Sept. 18 800 Marist College 50 % 49 % Sept. 12 - Sept. 17 1,194 Quinnipiac University 49 % 48 % Sept. 12 - Sept. 16 1,075 AARP 49 % 48 % Sept. 11 - Sept. 14 1,052 CBS/YouGov 51 % 49 % Sept. 3 - Sept. 6 946 Marquette Law School 52 % 48 % Aug. 28 - Sept. 5 738 The Times (UK)/SAY/YouGov 47 % 44 % Aug. 23 - Sept. 3 900 CNN 50 % 44 % Aug. 23 - Aug. 29 976 NYT/Siena College 50 % 46 % Aug. 5 - Aug. 8 661 Marquette Law School 50 % 49 % July 24 - Aug. 1 801 Fox News 49 % 50 % July 22 - July 24 1,046 Earlier Biden-Trump polls Pollster Biden Trump Dates Sample size AARP 45 % 50 % June 28 - July 2 1,052 Marquette Law School 51 % 49 % June 12 - June 20 784 NYT/Siena College 46 % 47 % April 28 - May 9 614 Quinnipiac University 50 % 44 % May 2 - May 6 1,457 CBS/YouGov 49 % 50 % April 19 - April 25 1,226 Fox News 48 % 48 % April 11 - April 16 1,198 Marquette Law School 49 % 51 % April 3 - April 10 736 Wall Street Journal 46 % 46 % March 17 - March 24 600 Marquette Law School 49 % 49 % Jan. 24 - Jan. 31 930 Fox News 47 % 47 % Jan. 26 - Jan. 30 1,172 Marquette Law School 50 % 48 % Oct. 26 - Nov. 2 908 NYT/Siena College 47 % 45 % Oct. 22 - Nov. 2 603 Show all polls Story continues below advertisement Advertisement ABOUT THIS STORY Polling model by Lenny Bronner and Diane Napolitano. Design and development by Kati Perry and Luis Melgar. Additional engineering support from John Campbell and Stewart Bishop. Polling research by Scott Clement, Emily Guskin and Jakob Bowen. Editing by Reuben Fischer-Baum and Sarah Frostenson. Project management by Rachel Van Dongen and Ashlyn Still. Copy editing by Anne Kenderdine. Election 2024 Hand-curated Election 2024 live updates: Trump defends New York rally where opening speakers lobbed racist remarks October 29, 2024 Who is ahead in Harris vs. Trump 2024 presidential polls right now? October 29, 2024 When polls close in each state and how long it may take to count votes October 29, 2024 View all 20 stories 17402 Comments Lenny BronnerLenny Bronner is a data scientist with a focus on elections.@lennybronner Diane NapolitanoDiane Napolitano is a data scientist who focuses on elections.@dianesaysword Kati PerryKati Perry joined the graphics team at the Washington Post in 2022 and focuses on politics. @kt_prry Luis MelgarLuis Melgar is a graphics reporter at The Washington Post. Before joining The Post in 2022, he was a graphics developer at the Urban Institute. Subscribe to comment and get the full experience. 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