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A COVID SURGE IN WESTERN EUROPE HAS U.S. BRACING FOR ANOTHER WAVE

By Lenny Bernstein
and 
Joel Achenbach
 
March 16, 2022|Updated March 16, 2022 at 4:28 p.m. EDT
By Lenny Bernstein
and 
Joel Achenbach
 
March 16, 2022|Updated March 16, 2022 at 4:28 p.m. EDT
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A health worker at a coronavirus testing facility in Hamburg on March 15.
Despite soaring infections, Germany is sticking with plans to let most
nationwide restrictions expire on March 20. (Imke Lass/Bloomberg News)
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A surge in coronavirus infections in Western Europe has experts and health
authorities on alert for another wave of the pandemic in the United States, even
as most of the country has done away with restrictions after a sharp decline in
cases.



Infectious-disease experts are closely watching the subvariant of omicron known
as BA.2, which appears to be more transmissible than the original strain, BA.1,
and is fueling the outbreak overseas.

What to know about BA.2, a new version of the omicron variant

Germany, a nation of 83 million people, saw more than 250,000 new cases and 249
deaths Friday, when Health Minister Karl Lauterbach called the nation’s
situation “critical.” The country is allowing most coronavirus restrictions to
end Sunday, despite the increase. Britain had a seven-day average of 65,894
cases and 79 deaths as of Sunday, according to the Johns Hopkins University
Coronavirus Research Center. The Netherlands, home to fewer than 18 million
people, was averaging more than 60,000 cases the same day.

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In all, about a dozen nations are seeing spikes in coronavirus infections caused
by BA.2, a cousin of the BA.1 form of the virus that tore through the United
States over the past three months.



In the past two years, a widespread outbreak like the one now being seen in
Europe has been followed by a similar surge in the United States some weeks
later. Many, but not all, experts interviewed for this story predicted that is
likely to happen. China and Hong Kong, on the other hand, are experiencing rapid
and severe outbreaks, but the strict “zero covid” policies they have enforced
make them less similar to the United States than Western Europe.


China posted a steep jump in daily coronavirus infections on March 15 with new
cases more than doubling from a day earlier to a two-year high. (Reuters)

A number of variables — including relaxed precautions against viral
transmission, vaccination rates, the availability of antiviral medications and
natural immunity acquired by previous infection — may affect the course of any
surge in the United States, experts said.

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Most importantly, it is unclear at this point how many people will become
severely ill, stressing hospitals and the health-care system as BA.1 did.

Tracking the coronavirus

Another surge also may test the public’s appetite for returning to widespread
mask-wearing, mandates and other measures that many have eagerly abandoned as
the latest surge fades and spring approaches, experts said.


N95 masks are now the preferred face covering to protect yourself and others
from the coronavirus. Here is what you need to know. (Daron Taylor, John
Farrell/The Washington Post)

“It’s picking up steam. It’s across at least 12 countries … from Finland to
Greece,” said Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Research Translational
Institute in San Diego, who recently posted charts of the outbreak on Twitter.
“There’s no question there’s a significant wave there.”

Topol noted that hospitalizations for covid-19, the disease caused by the virus,
are rising in some places as well, despite the superior vaccination rates of
many Western European countries.

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At a briefing Monday, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said about 35,000
cases of BA.2 have been reported in the United States to date. But she offered
confidence that “the tools we have — including mRNA vaccines, therapeutics and
tests — are all effective tools against the virus. And we know because it’s been
in the country.”

Kristen Nordlund, a spokeswoman for the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention, said in an email Tuesday that “although the BA.2 variant has
increased in the United States over the past several weeks, it is not the
dominant variant, and we are not seeing an increase in the severity of disease.”

CDC data shows that, as of last week, BA.2 accounted for 23.1 percent of all new
coronavirus infections in the United States, the largest percentage yet — up
from 13.7 percent the week before. But BA.2 accounted for more than 38 percent
of cases last week in parts of the Northeast and New England.

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The seven-day average of cases in the United States fell 17.9 percent in the
past week, according to data tracked by The Washington Post, while the number of
deaths dropped 17.2 percent and hospitalizations declined 23.2 percent.

Predicting the future course of the virus has proved difficult throughout the
pandemic, and the current circumstances in Europe elicited a range of opinions
from people who have closely tracked the pathogen and the disease it causes.

In the United States, just 65.3 percent of the population, 216.8 million people,
are fully vaccinated, and only 96.1 million have received a booster shot,
according to data tracked by The Post. In Germany, nearly 76 percent are fully
vaccinated, according to the Johns Hopkins data, and Britain has fully
vaccinated 73.6 percent.

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That lower vaccination rate is very likely to matter as BA.2 spreads further in
the United States, especially in regions where it is significantly lower than
the national rate, several experts said. And even for people who are fully
vaccinated and have received a booster shot, research data is showing that
immunity to the virus fades over time. Vaccine-makers Pfizer and BioNTech asked
the Food and Drug Administration on Tuesday for emergency authorization to offer
a fourth shot to people 65 and older.

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“Any place you have relatively lower vaccination rates, especially among the
elderly, is where you’re going to see a bump in hospitalizations and deaths from
this,” said Céline Gounder, an infectious-diseases physician and editor at large
for public health at Kaiser Health News.

Similarly, as the public sheds masks — every state has dropped its mask mandate
or announced plans to do so — another layer of protection is disappearing,
several people tracking the situation said.

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“Why wouldn’t it come here? Are we vaccinated enough? I don’t know,” said
Kimberly Prather, a professor of atmospheric chemistry and an expert on aerosol
transmission at the University of California at San Diego.

“So I’m wearing my mask still. … I am the only person indoors, and people look
at me funny, and I don’t care.”

Yet BA.2 appears to be spreading more slowly in the United States than it has
overseas, for reasons that aren’t entirely clear, Debbie Dowell, chief medical
officer for the CDC’s covid-19 response, said in a briefing Saturday for
clinicians sponsored by the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

How Hong Kong's 'zero covid' policy backfired

“The speculation I’ve seen is that it may extend the curve going down, case
rates from omicron, but is unlikely to cause another surge that we saw initially
with omicron,” Dowell said.

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One reason for that may be the immunity that millions of people acquired
recently when they were infected with the BA.1 variant, which generally caused
less-severe illness than previous variants. Yet no one really knows whether
infection with BA.1 offers protection from BA.2.

“That’s the question,” said Jeffrey Shaman, an epidemiologist at the Columbia
University Mailman School of Public Health. “Better yet, how long does it
provide protection?”

Topol said the United States needs to improve its vaccination and booster rates
immediately to protect more of the population against any coming surge.

“We have got to get the United States protected better. We have an abundance of
these shots. We have to get them into people,” he said.

Story continues below advertisement



Biden administration officials said that whatever the further spread of BA.2
brings to the United States, the next critical step is to provide the $15.6
billion in emergency funding that Congress stripped from a deal to fund the
government last week. That money was slated to pay for coronavirus tests, more
vaccines and antiviral medications.

“That means that some programs, if we don’t get funding, could abruptly end or
need to be pared back,” Psaki said at Monday’s briefing. “And that could impact
how we are able to respond to any variant.”

Lena H. Sun contributed to this report.


CORONAVIRUS: WHAT YOU NEED TO READ

The latest: A surge in infections in Western Europe, fueled by the subvariant of
omicron known as BA.2, has experts and health authorities on alert for another
wave of the pandemic in the United States. See the latest coronavirus numbers
and how the omicron variant has spread across the world.

At-home tests: Here’s how to use at-home covid tests, where to find them and how
they differ from PCR tests.

Mask guidance: The CDC has eased mask recommendations for the vast majority of
the country. The change followed a relaxation of restrictions by most Democratic
governors responding to nosediving case counts and public pressure.

For the latest news, sign up for our free newsletter.


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