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GUIDE TO THE MARKETS
Download the Guide
Search the guide by title or slide #
*
Introduction
* Cover page
1
* Global Market Insights Strategy Team
2
* Page reference
3
*
Equities
* S&P 500 index at inflection points
4
* S&P 500 valuation measures
5
* P/E ratios and equity returns
6
* Corporate earnings and analyst expectations
7
* Sources of earnings per share growth
8
* Profit margins
9
* Value vs. Growth
10
* Small cap vs. large cap stocks
11
* Returns and valuations by style
12
* Returns and valuations by sector
13
* Factor performance
14
* Annual returns and intra-year declines
15
* Equity scenarios: Bull, bear and in-between
16
* Market inflection points, recessions and the unemployment rate
17
*
Economy
* Economic growth and the composition of GDP
18
* Recession determinants
19
* Cyclical sectors
20
* Home prices and affordability
21
* Residential real estate
22
* Federal finances
23
* Consumer finances
24
* Consumer confidence and the stock market
25
* Labor demand
26
* Unemployment and wages
27
* Inflation
28
* Inflation heat map
29
* Inflation drivers and expectations
30
* Dollar drivers
31
* Oil markets
32
* Global energy transition
33
*
Fixed Income
* The Fed and interest rates
34
* The Federal Reserve balance sheet
35
* Interest rates and inflation
36
* Fixed income market dynamics
37
* Yield curve
38
* High yield bonds
39
* Fixed income valuations
40
* Developed market monetary policy
41
* Global fixed income
42
* Municipal finance
43
* Bloomberg U.S. Agg. Annual returns and intra-year declines
44
*
International
* Global equity markets
45
* Currency and international equity returns
46
* Cycles of U.S. equity outperformance
47
* International valuations and dividend yields
48
* International equity earnings and valuations
49
* International markets
50
* Global economic activity momentum
51
* Global inflation
52
* Global supply chains and inflation
53
* The emergence of the EM middle class
54
* China: Economic growth
55
*
Alternatives
* Correlations and volatility
56
* Equity market correlations and yields
57
* Global commodities
58
* U.S. real estate dynamics
59
* Market volatility and hedge funds
60
*
Investing Principles
* Asset class returns
61
* Valuations monitor
62
* 60/40 annual returns
63
* Time, diversification and the volatility of returns
64
* Diversification and the average investor
65
* Cash account returns
66
* Individual investor asset allocation
67
* Institutional investor behavior
68
*
Disclosures
* J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Index definitions
69
* J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Index definitions & disclosures
70
* J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Risks & disclosures
71
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COVER PAGE
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J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT – RISKS & DISCLOSURES
COVER PAGE
GLOBAL MARKET INSIGHTS STRATEGY TEAM
PAGE REFERENCE
S&P 500 INDEX AT INFLECTION POINTS
S&P 500 VALUATION MEASURES
P/E RATIOS AND EQUITY RETURNS
CORPORATE EARNINGS AND ANALYST EXPECTATIONS
SOURCES OF EARNINGS PER SHARE GROWTH
PROFIT MARGINS
VALUE VS. GROWTH
SMALL CAP VS. LARGE CAP STOCKS
RETURNS AND VALUATIONS BY STYLE
RETURNS AND VALUATIONS BY SECTOR
FACTOR PERFORMANCE
ANNUAL RETURNS AND INTRA-YEAR DECLINES
EQUITY SCENARIOS: BULL, BEAR AND IN-BETWEEN
MARKET INFLECTION POINTS, RECESSIONS AND THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE COMPOSITION OF GDP
RECESSION DETERMINANTS
CYCLICAL SECTORS
HOME PRICES AND AFFORDABILITY
RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE
FEDERAL FINANCES
CONSUMER FINANCES
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND THE STOCK MARKET
LABOR DEMAND
UNEMPLOYMENT AND WAGES
INFLATION
INFLATION HEAT MAP
INFLATION DRIVERS AND EXPECTATIONS
DOLLAR DRIVERS
OIL MARKETS
GLOBAL ENERGY TRANSITION
THE FED AND INTEREST RATES
THE FEDERAL RESERVE BALANCE SHEET
INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION
FIXED INCOME MARKET DYNAMICS
YIELD CURVE
HIGH YIELD BONDS
FIXED INCOME VALUATIONS
DEVELOPED MARKET MONETARY POLICY
GLOBAL FIXED INCOME
MUNICIPAL FINANCE
BLOOMBERG U.S. AGG. ANNUAL RETURNS AND INTRA-YEAR DECLINES
GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS
CURRENCY AND INTERNATIONAL EQUITY RETURNS
CYCLES OF U.S. EQUITY OUTPERFORMANCE
INTERNATIONAL VALUATIONS AND DIVIDEND YIELDS
INTERNATIONAL EQUITY EARNINGS AND VALUATIONS
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
GLOBAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY MOMENTUM
GLOBAL INFLATION
GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS AND INFLATION
THE EMERGENCE OF THE EM MIDDLE CLASS
CHINA: ECONOMIC GROWTH
CORRELATIONS AND VOLATILITY
EQUITY MARKET CORRELATIONS AND YIELDS
GLOBAL COMMODITIES
U.S. REAL ESTATE DYNAMICS
MARKET VOLATILITY AND HEDGE FUNDS
ASSET CLASS RETURNS
VALUATIONS MONITOR
60/40 ANNUAL RETURNS
TIME, DIVERSIFICATION AND THE VOLATILITY OF RETURNS
DIVERSIFICATION AND THE AVERAGE INVESTOR
CASH ACCOUNT RETURNS
INDIVIDUAL INVESTOR ASSET ALLOCATION
INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR BEHAVIOR
J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT – INDEX DEFINITIONS
J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT – INDEX DEFINITIONS & DISCLOSURES
J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT – RISKS & DISCLOSURES
COVER PAGE
GLOBAL MARKET INSIGHTS STRATEGY TEAM
PAGE REFERENCE
S&P 500 INDEX AT INFLECTION POINTS
S&P 500 VALUATION MEASURES
P/E RATIOS AND EQUITY RETURNS
CORPORATE EARNINGS AND ANALYST EXPECTATIONS
SOURCES OF EARNINGS PER SHARE GROWTH
PROFIT MARGINS
VALUE VS. GROWTH
SMALL CAP VS. LARGE CAP STOCKS
RETURNS AND VALUATIONS BY STYLE
RETURNS AND VALUATIONS BY SECTOR
FACTOR PERFORMANCE
ANNUAL RETURNS AND INTRA-YEAR DECLINES
EQUITY SCENARIOS: BULL, BEAR AND IN-BETWEEN
MARKET INFLECTION POINTS, RECESSIONS AND THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE COMPOSITION OF GDP
RECESSION DETERMINANTS
CYCLICAL SECTORS
HOME PRICES AND AFFORDABILITY
RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE
FEDERAL FINANCES
CONSUMER FINANCES
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND THE STOCK MARKET
LABOR DEMAND
UNEMPLOYMENT AND WAGES
INFLATION
INFLATION HEAT MAP
INFLATION DRIVERS AND EXPECTATIONS
DOLLAR DRIVERS
OIL MARKETS
GLOBAL ENERGY TRANSITION
THE FED AND INTEREST RATES
THE FEDERAL RESERVE BALANCE SHEET
INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION
FIXED INCOME MARKET DYNAMICS
YIELD CURVE
HIGH YIELD BONDS
FIXED INCOME VALUATIONS
DEVELOPED MARKET MONETARY POLICY
GLOBAL FIXED INCOME
MUNICIPAL FINANCE
BLOOMBERG U.S. AGG. ANNUAL RETURNS AND INTRA-YEAR DECLINES
GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS
CURRENCY AND INTERNATIONAL EQUITY RETURNS
CYCLES OF U.S. EQUITY OUTPERFORMANCE
INTERNATIONAL VALUATIONS AND DIVIDEND YIELDS
INTERNATIONAL EQUITY EARNINGS AND VALUATIONS
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
GLOBAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY MOMENTUM
GLOBAL INFLATION
GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS AND INFLATION
THE EMERGENCE OF THE EM MIDDLE CLASS
CHINA: ECONOMIC GROWTH
CORRELATIONS AND VOLATILITY
EQUITY MARKET CORRELATIONS AND YIELDS
GLOBAL COMMODITIES
U.S. REAL ESTATE DYNAMICS
MARKET VOLATILITY AND HEDGE FUNDS
ASSET CLASS RETURNS
VALUATIONS MONITOR
60/40 ANNUAL RETURNS
TIME, DIVERSIFICATION AND THE VOLATILITY OF RETURNS
DIVERSIFICATION AND THE AVERAGE INVESTOR
CASH ACCOUNT RETURNS
INDIVIDUAL INVESTOR ASSET ALLOCATION
INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR BEHAVIOR
J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT – INDEX DEFINITIONS
J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT – INDEX DEFINITIONS & DISCLOSURES
J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT – RISKS & DISCLOSURES
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Guide to the Markets
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SNAPSHOT OF THE ECONOMIC AND MARKET UPDATE FOR THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2023
01/02/2023
Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist, previews this quarter's themes and
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