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GLOBAL FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT


FINANCIAL AND CLIMATE POLICIES FOR A HIGH-INTEREST-RATE ERA

October 2023



 * Overview
 * Key Highlights
 * Chapters in the Report
 * Videos

English
العربية español français 日本語 русский 中文
Download Full Report

RISKS TO GLOBAL GROWTH REMAIN SKEWED TO THE DOWNSIDE AS INFLATION REMAINS
ELEVATED AND INTEREST RATES ARE SET TO STAY HIGHER FOR LONGER.



Chapter 1 assesses that risks to global growth are skewed to the downside,
similar to the assessment in the April 2023 Global Financial Stability Report.
Cracks in the financial system may turn into worrisome fault lines should a soft
landing of the global economy hoped for by market participants does not
materialize.

Chapter 2 homes in on the global banking system, providing a fresh assessment of
vulnerabilities in a higher-for-longer environment, using an enhanced global
stress test and a set of newly developed market-based indicators. In response to
the vulnerabilities that are uncovered, enhancements to supervisory practices
and tightening of regulatory standards are proposed.

Chapter 3 notes that a broad mix of policies is required to unlock the private
capital necessary to cover climate mitigation investment needs in emerging
market and developing economies.

 * Full Report
 * Executive Summary
 * Foreword
 * Press Conference
 * Blog by IMF's Financial Counsellor Tobias Adrian



KEY HIGHLIGHTS



CHAPTERS IN THE REPORT

CHAPTER 1: SOFT LANDING OR ABRUPT AWAKENING?

With core inflation still high in many advanced economies, central banks may
need to keep monetary policy tighter for longer than is currently priced in
markets. In emerging market economies, progress on lowering inflation appears to
be more advanced, though there are discrepancies across regions. Yet, optimism
about a “soft landing” of the global economy, whereby disinflation continues
apace and a recession is avoided, has eased financial conditions since the April
2023 Global Financial Stability Report—stock markets have rallied, credit
spreads have remained tight, and emerging market currencies have appreciated.
Upside surprises to the inflation outlook would challenge the soft-landing
narrative, resulting in a potentially sharp repricing of assets. While acute
stress in the global banking system has subsided, a weak tail of banks remains
in some countries. Cracks in other sectors may also become apparent and could
turn into worrisome fault lines that would again test the resilience of the
global financial system in the event of an abrupt tightening of financial
conditions. Most notably, the global credit cycle has started to turn as
borrowers’ debt repayment capacity diminishes and credit growth slows. Risks to
global growth are therefore skewed to the downside, similar to the assessment in
April.

 * Read Chapter 1
 * Blog by Tobias Adrian

 * Chapter 1 Data
 * Press Conference

CHAPTER 2: A NEW LOOK AT GLOBAL BANKING VULNERABILITIES

Chapter 2 provides a fresh assessment of global banking vulnerabilities in a
higher-for-longer environment. A global stress test that has been enhanced to
draw lessons from the March 2023 banking turmoil uncovers many banks in advanced
economies with the potential for significant capital losses, driven by
marking-to-market securities and provisioning for loan losses. These results are
consistent with a set of newly developed indicators, based on market data and
analyst forecasts, which point to a substantial group of smaller banks at risk
in the United States, and risks increasing in Asia, China, and Europe. In
response to these vulnerabilities, policy makers should sharpen their risk
assessments, increase the severity of stress tests and increase capital held
against interest rate risks, and banks should ensure that they are prepared to
access central bank facilities in times of stress.

 * Read Chapter 2
 * Blog by IMF Staff

 * Chapter 2 Data
 * Online Annexes

CHAPTER 3: FINANCIAL SECTOR POLICIES TO UNLOCK PRIVATE CLIMATE FINANCE IN
EMERGING MARKET AND DEVELOPING ECONOMIES

The private sector will have to cover a major share of the large climate
mitigation investment needs in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs).
EMDEs face challenges in attracting private climate finance such as their often
low credit rating, which limits the potential investor base. Climate policies of
major banks and insurance companies are not yet aligned with net zero emission
targets. Despite the growth in sustainable investment funds, a small share of
the invested money is dedicated to creating a positive climate impact. Given the
political hurdles to implementing carbon pricing and EMDE-specific challenges, a
broad mix of policies is needed to create an attractive environment for private
climate mitigation finance in EMDEs. Structural policies are key to lowering the
cost of capital, mobilizing domestic financial resources, and improving credit
ratings in EMDEs. Another essential part of the policy mix is financial sector
policies, which should refocus on creating climate impact and consider the
specific circumstances of EMDEs. In low-income countries additional
international support and policy initiative will be needed. The IMF Resilience
and Sustainability Facility, by supporting reforms, can help create an enabling
investment environment and attract private capital.

 * Read Chapter 3
 * Blog by IMF Staff
 * Panel Discussion

 * Chapter 3 Data
 * Online Annexes

VIDEOS

Press Briefing: Global Financial Stability Report, October 2023
The press briefing and launch of our October 2023 issue of the Global Financial
Stability Report.


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PRESS BRIEFING: GLOBAL FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT, OCTOBER 2023

 * October 10, 2023

 * 00:44:22

IMF Financial Counsellor Tobias Adrian on the October 2023 Global Financial
Stability Report
IMF Financial Counsellor and Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets
Department Tobias Adrian outlines the new updates in the latest release of the
Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR).

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IMF FINANCIAL COUNSELLOR TOBIAS ADRIAN ON THE OCTOBER 2023 GLOBAL FINANCIAL
STABILITY REPORT

 * October 10, 2023

 * 00:02:43

Unlocking Private Climate Finance for Emerging Market and Developing Economies
Chapter 3 of the IMF’s most recent Global Financial Sector Report makes
recommendations to attract more private capital into climate investment in
emerging market and developing economies.

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UNLOCKING PRIVATE CLIMATE FINANCE FOR EMERGING MARKET AND DEVELOPING ECONOMIES

 * October 2, 2023

 * 01:01:13



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