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<h1 class="vjs-social-title">Share: ISIS Leader Killed BY US Airstrike, Military Confirms</h1>
<h2 class="vjs-social-description">Maher al-Agal, a leader of the Isalmic State terrorist group, was assassinated by a U.S. drone that struck in northwest Syria, the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed Tuesday. </h2>
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BREAKING
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HOW SENATE FORECASTS HAVE MOVED TOWARD REPUBLICANS IN THE FINAL STRETCH BEFORE
ELECTION DAY
Sara Dorn
Forbes Staff
Politics
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Oct 26, 2022,12:36pm EDT|
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TOPLINE
With under two weeks to go before the midterm election, a Republican-controlled
congress is looking increasingly more likely as Democrats—hamstrung by President
Joe Biden’s low approval ratings and record-breaking inflation—have struggled to
reassure voters their party can right the economy.
NEW YORK, NY - DECEMBER 23: U.S. Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY) speaks during a
press conference to ... [+] discuss what he believes is needed to ensure a fair
senate impeachment trial on December 23, 2019 in New York City. Schumer laid out
a long list of records and evidence that Democrats would like to see for
President Trump’s impeachment trial, including internal emails and documents
from the White House, the State Department and the Office of Management and
Budget relating to the president’s effort to press Ukraine’s leader to
investigate Mr. Trump’s political rivals. (Photo by David Dee Delgado/Getty
Images)
Getty Images
KEY FACTS
Democrats have lost their strong lead against Republicans in the battle for
control of the Senate over the past month, with the party’s chances at
maintaining its slim majority in the upper chamber now at 54 in 100, down from
68 in 100 at the end of September, according to FiveThirtyEight, which calls the
race a “dead heat.”
Other forecasts show the Senate competition is a toss-up–Sabato’s Crystal Ball
at the University of Virginia predicts 49 seats that lean toward,are likely to
be won by or solidly in the hands of each party, while Cook Political Report
ranks 50 seats as either solidly or likely to be in control of each party.
PROMOTED
Several individual Senate competitions have moved closer to GOP victories in
recent weeks, as Cook recently shifted contests in Florida (Sen. Marco Rubio (R)
v. Rep. Val Demings (D)) and Washington (Sen. Patty Murray (D) v. Tiffany Smiley
(R)) to the right, while RealClearPolitics moved the race between Sen. Chuck
Schumer (D-NY) and Joe Pinion (R ) from safely to likely in Schumer’s favor and
the North Carolina Senate race between Cheri Beasley (D) and Rep. Ted Budd (R)
from a toss-up to leaning GOP.
Republicans’ chances of wresting control of the House now stand at 82 in 100, up
from 75 in 100 a week ago, according to FiveThirtyEight, which now predicts the
GOP will win 230 seats (an increase of three seats from a week ago) and the
popular vote by a 4.1 margin, up from 3.2 points on October 19.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted six House races to the right this
week, including four that previously leaned Democrat and are now toss-ups, most
notably Democratic National Committee Chair Sean Patrick Maloney’s re-election
bid in New York.
A total of 218 House seats, “the magic number for winning a majority” now at
least lean Republican, Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia
Center for Politics said Wednesday as it shifted four races previously predicted
as toss-ups to leaning Republican, including Oregon’s 5th congressional district
currently held by Rep. Kurt Schrader (D).
RealClearPolitics forecasts an even stronger showing for Republicans, predicting
the GOP will win 225 House seats after changing its predictions on four races
this week that were previously rated as toss-ups to leaning Republican.
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BIG NUMBER
4. That’s the number of Senate races Cook forecasts as toss-ups, two of which
are held by each party.
KEY BACKGROUND
Political forecasts, since early summer, have predicted Republicans will gain
control of the House (currently split 222-213 with Democrats in the majority),
consistent with historical trends that show the president’s party typically
loses seats in a midterm election year. The Senate outcome, however, was once
firmly in favor of Democrats, who were banking on Roe v. Wade’s reversal to
rally voters. However, the economy and record inflation are bigger priorities
for Americans, according to polls that also show more voters trust Republicans
over Democrats to handle the issue. Republican congressional candidates have
seized on Biden’s relatively low approval ratings and the faltering economy,
making them key talking points in their midterm campaigns. GOP candidates and
groups that back them have spent $63 million on ads since Labor Day that mention
Joe Biden, second only to spending on Republican ads that mention taxation, the
Washington Post reported, citing data from the ad tracking firm AdImpact.
Democrats, meanwhile, have continued to hammer Republicans on abortion rights,
spending $103 million on ads that mention the issue since early September.
TANGENT
Fearing a Republican sweep, Biden directed the Democratic National Committee to
shift $10 million to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, CNN reported Tuesday, citing
Democratic officials. The DNC has transferred a record $27 million to the
Democrats’ House and Senate campaign arms this election cycle, shattering the
$13.9 million record set in 2010.
CRITICAL QUOTE
“A large number of races remain close and competitive. The danger for Democrats
is that these races end up breaking disproportionately to the Republicans,” the
political analysts at Sabato’s Crystal Ball wrote Wednesday, referring to its
House predictions.
FURTHER READING
Red tsunami watch (Axios)
Making sense of the GOP’s October surge (Politico)
Follow me on Twitter. Send me a secure tip.
Sara Dorn
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I cover national politics, with a focus on elections and the White House. Prior
to joining Forbes, I wrote about New York politics for City & State magazine and
The New
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ISIS Leader Killed BY US Airstrike, Military Confirms
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SHARE: ISIS LEADER KILLED BY US AIRSTRIKE, MILITARY CONFIRMS
MAHER AL-AGAL, A LEADER OF THE ISALMIC STATE TERRORIST GROUP, WAS ASSASSINATED
BY A U.S. DRONE THAT STRUCK IN NORTHWEST SYRIA, THE U.S. CENTRAL COMMAND
(CENTCOM) CONFIRMED TUESDAY.
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