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THE MARKET EAR Newsletter Alerts Live Feed Highlights Options Crypto SIGN UP FOR THE FREE NEWSLETTER Stay ahead of the market with our free newsletter. We don't spam, our goal is to keep you informed. Notifications are blocked by your browser. Please enable them to receive live relevant coverage from The Market Ear Market alerts are now enabled We'll send you relevant markets coverage in real time Market alerts are now paused To enable them, simply click on the button JOIN THE PREMIUM COMMUNITY THIS IS WHAT YOU GET WHEN YOU SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM: * Real-time access to the TME feed that provides market intelligence 24/7 365 days per year * Real-time access to the TME mobile app * The intra-day thematic / trading emails * TME focuses on macro markets through a cross-asset and volatility lens * TME is produced by a team of market professionals, each has +20 years of experience from hedge funds, sell-side and running volatility prop books * Access the content via our partners at Zero Hedge Premium * Join here PREMIUM USERS SIGN IN BELOW Email CancelNext By continuing, you are indicating that you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. Strong BS too expensive? You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 12 minutes ago at 18:00 Buyback warning You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 32 minutes ago at 17:40 VIX got seasonality You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied an hour ago at 17:20 King tech You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 8 hours ago at 10:00 Perceived fear vs realized fear You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied an hour ago at 17:00 Remember seasonality? You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 2 hours ago at 16:40 S&P 500 debt maturity wall You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 2 hours ago at 16:20 S&P500 borrow costs You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 2 hours ago at 16:00 CTAs in Europe You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 2 hours ago at 16:00 Reshuffling big books is very hard You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 3 hours ago at 15:40 Office underperformance You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 3 hours ago at 15:20 Credit's ides of March You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 3 hours ago at 15:00 We remain in erratic territory You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 3 hours ago at 14:45 Even tighter lending? You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 4 hours ago at 14:30 The explosion in emergency borrowing You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 4 hours ago at 14:20 What a difference a few weeks make You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 4 hours ago at 14:00 Defaults You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 5 hours ago at 13:40 The mighty US Consumer You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 5 hours ago at 13:20 The cross You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 5 hours ago at 13:00 Got yield? You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 6 hours ago at 12:40 Got DB yield? You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 6 hours ago at 12:30 Europe's tiny banking crisis You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 6 hours ago at 12:20 Positioning extreme: Bonds You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 6 hours ago at 12:00 Positioning extreme: mutual funds in mega-tech You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 6 hours ago at 11:45 Positioning extreme: Crude You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 7 hours ago at 11:40 Positioning extreme: HFs in equities You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 7 hours ago at 11:30 Perceived fear vs realized fear You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied an hour ago at 17:00 We remain in erratic territory You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 3 hours ago at 14:45 King tech You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 8 hours ago at 10:00 Welcome back to the European banking crisis You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 10 hours ago at 08:40 Eu(ro)phoria You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 20 hours ago at 22:30 Fed BS freshly updated You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 23 2023 at 21:00 The world's most important (stock) golden cross You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 23 2023 at 15:30 NASDAQ - stuck, but... ...tech has had that "safe haven" bid lately. NASDAQ has traded inside the 13k/11k range since last May, with 12k being the "holy" average. Let's see how this plays out from here, but trading ranges works best with a mean reversion mind...until it stops working. More Less Source: Refinitiv Link Copied Mar 23 2023 at 10:40 All tech must squeeze You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 23 2023 at 10:00 GS on the Fed You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 23 2023 at 06:10 NASDAQ's upside stress, but... NASDAQ futs tried the 13k, but looks to be fading as of writing. 13k is a huge level, and tech has moved violently higher over the past weeks. Let's see if this is the shooting star candle that could be signalling a short term exhaustion move... More Less Source: Refinitiv Link Copied Mar 22 2023 at 19:14 Lowest level of all time You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 22 2023 at 16:00 Fund your tech puts via the rates vol panic You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 22 2023 at 10:40 Fat and flat is king You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 21 2023 at 20:20 The big vs small banks irony TS Lombard's Perkins: "US regulators focused on making the big banks safer but forgot that the smaller banks – which have been responsible for much of the credit creation of the past decade – could pose systemic risks, at least in aggregate." The investment bank argues this liquidity crisis risks becoming a credit crisis and urges you to look at the commercial property sector closely. More Less Source: TS Lombard Link Copied Mar 21 2023 at 13:40 Oil - is this the reason to buy? Oil tested huge levels recently. Momentum is poor, but these supports are big. Fear in oil has shot up dramatically with the OVX making dramatic move higher, but maybe the biggest reason to try some long oil is because the CTA crowd has sold this space big time. The problem with CTAs lately is that they have tried pushing momentum break outs in stuff that hasn't trended well. Is oil another inverse CTA trade logic to consider? More Less Source: RefinitivSource: RefinitivSource: GSView 2 more charts Link Copied Mar 21 2023 at 13:00 King of stocks breaking up? You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 21 2023 at 12:20 Skew - paradigm shift You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 20 2023 at 20:00 This financials puke hurts You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 20 2023 at 16:20 Scared of selling your gold longs? You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 20 2023 at 12:00 Stress remains stressed You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 20 2023 at 09:00 Tech - the relatively stable one You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 19 2023 at 19:00 Time to be contrarian on the CTA flow? You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 18 2023 at 18:00 Everything gold surging You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 17 2023 at 19:30 Volmageddon "activity" You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 17 2023 at 19:00 GS: buy NKE calls You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 15 2023 at 20:30 Calls attractive You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 13 2023 at 19:10 You got 13 days You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 06 2023 at 07:00 Put hate is gone...and some put love is back You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Feb 28 2023 at 14:59 and it's gone You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Feb 28 2023 at 13:40 Monetization mania You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Feb 28 2023 at 04:00 Rates matter Jefferies writes: "...the relationship between S&P500 forward PE and US 10Y bond yield has been tight knit since 2022, with an R squared of 53%." Don't forget to look at bond volatility as well. Second chart shows SPX vs MOVE (inverted). More Less Source: JefferiesSource: RefinitivView one more chart Link Copied Feb 27 2023 at 13:45 MOVE moving everything You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Feb 27 2023 at 12:20 US credit protection has risen as well You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Feb 27 2023 at 11:00 Europe's equity vs credit gap You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Feb 27 2023 at 10:00 That was quick - bonds edition You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Feb 26 2023 at 21:00 0DTE puts are the new 0DTE calls Scott Rubner writes: "Month to date, more daily puts were trading than calls." Somebody needs to figure out how to hedge that downside when things get dynamic to the downside... More Less Source: GS Link Copied Feb 24 2023 at 21:20 Monetizing hedges You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Feb 24 2023 at 18:01 Down but with diminishing "panic" You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Feb 24 2023 at 17:42 Not the normal VIX Friday You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Feb 24 2023 at 14:30 Options color You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Feb 24 2023 at 14:10 Credit protection - still resilient You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Feb 24 2023 at 11:59 Muted European volatility - the cheap what if hedge? You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Feb 24 2023 at 10:35 Watching the MOVE closely VIX down from recent "panic" highs, but MOVE refuses giving back any of the gains. Watch bond volatility closely here as it is a big part of the current macro puzzle. More Less Source: Refinitiv Link Copied Feb 23 2023 at 21:22 0DTE - buy to sell Great charts via BofA's great derivatives team showing how people start the day with paying up for 0DTE options (lifting offers) only to sell these as the day progresses, hitting bids. The trend can be seen in both calls and puts, with puts being even more pronounced. Zero sum game until something goes wrong...? More Less Source: BofA Link Copied Feb 23 2023 at 15:20 Very little "monetization" We have covered the rise in SPX and the rise in SKEW extensively over past weeks (here). When both rise you should watch closely as it shows the crowd is paying up for downside protection (on a relative volatility basis)...because they need it. This protection is usually monetized when markets move lower. This time we have seen very little of that "monetization"... More Less Source: Refinitiv Link Copied Feb 23 2023 at 13:40 They don't come cheap 0DTE options trade with a huge volatility premium. BofA's chart showing the volatility smile "with the call side trading at more elevated implied vols than longer-dated tenors". More Less Source: BofA Link Copied Feb 22 2023 at 22:59 0DTE and Volmageddon 2.0? You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Feb 22 2023 at 22:30 MOVE moving VIX You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Feb 22 2023 at 19:20 Sell low, buy high agony is back You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Feb 22 2023 at 16:45 Bitcoin - still waiting for the institutional bid You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 23 2023 at 12:15 Crypto - decoupling begins You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 22 2023 at 19:40 Bitcoin has been the leader It led things on the way up. Does it lead to the downside? Short term 1 day 5 min chart showing BTC and SPX. More Less Source: Refinitiv Link Copied Mar 22 2023 at 19:30 Follow bitcoin You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 22 2023 at 15:20 Bitcoin - does anyone care? You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 16 2023 at 18:20 The winner continues winning You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 14 2023 at 13:00 Not everything is pricing fear You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 13 2023 at 14:12 Bitcoin discounting "happy days" You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 12 2023 at 19:04 Bitcoin - will we ever see the institutional bid? You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 02 2023 at 04:00 BTC tracking the 17/18 cycle BTC price action generally tracks the 2017/18 cycle, but trading volumes are low, and crypto company credit risks remain. Morgan Stanley's ETH PAVA speculative indicator has reached an extreme high. More Less Source: Morgan Stanley Link Copied Jan 18 2023 at 19:20 Crypto - suddenly not so boring You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Jan 15 2023 at 11:30 A crypto doughnut Early in the month, and now we have a rally...but could crypto funding in the month of January actually register a big fat zero? Like some (many) ECM bonuses... More Less Source: JPM Link Copied Jan 13 2023 at 15:46 Bitcoin volatility More of the spot up, vol up behavior for forgotten Bitcoin. Second chart shows the 35 delta skew, also moving higher, as upside "chasing" makes a come back. More Less Source: AmberdataSource: AmberdataView one more chart Link Copied Jan 13 2023 at 15:30 Bitcoin bull Bitcoin is extending the most recent surge. We stick with our upside call spreads logic from Monday (here). Make sure to roll into higher strikes dynamically in order to capture max optionality. Note the 200 day coming in slightly higher. We have not traded above it since Jan 2022. 20k is the "psychological" level to watch. More Less Source: Refinitiv Link Copied Jan 13 2023 at 15:20 Got crypto? Long crypto is unique these days. That is part of the reason we continue to feel comfortable with our latest squeeze BTC logic (here). Charts show JPM's position proxy based on open interest in CME Bitcoin and Ethereum futures contracts. More Less Source: JPMSource: JPMView one more chart Link Copied Jan 12 2023 at 20:20 Bitcoin - will you ever attract interest? Let's see if the latest mini move higher reignites some "institutional" interest. One things is sure, the trend is not overly exciting...making the squeeze even more exciting. More Less Source: JPM Link Copied Jan 12 2023 at 18:00 Bitcoin's comeback, but... Bitcoin is trading above the 100 day moving average as of writing. We have not seen that since the early November crash. On Monday we outlined our short term BTC squeeze logic and we wrote: "One way to play a possible break out move in BTC is via shorter dated call spreads." This has worked well, but don't forget to roll into higher strikes in order to max out the "greeks". 18500 is a first bigger resistance. Booking some profits and rolling into higher strikes is a strategy we like. Note the 200 day still way higher and the negative trend coming in slightly higher. More Less Source: Refinitiv Link Copied Jan 12 2023 at 14:30 You know things are squeezy when... ...even BTC is moving higher. BTC looks to be closing above the range highs. Second chart shows the short term chart moving in tandem with NASDAQ. More Less Source: RefinitivSource: RefinitivView one more chart Link Copied Jan 09 2023 at 17:40 Bitcoin optionality Bitcoin volatility has come down sharply. One way to play a possible break out move in BTC is via shorter dated call spreads. Skew is not dirt cheap, but given the implosion in vols, playing directional bets in BTC looks relatively attractive. More Less Source: AmberdataSource: AmberdataView one more chart Link Copied Jan 09 2023 at 09:20 Bitcoin - is that a break out attempt? BTC is currently pushing higher, trading at 17200 as of writing. BTC has been stuck inside a massively boring range. A close here or higher and we could be seeing some upside momentum kick in. More Less Source: Refinitiv Link Copied Jan 09 2023 at 09:10 Why to still believe in crypto Bernstein highlights 5 arguments on why one still should believe in crypto despite the current bear cycle and FTX-like catastrophes that have weighed on investor confidence. 1. With maturing internet adoption, crypto still has decades of application-led growth. Crypto only touches 5% of total internet users 2. Crypto's survival instinct is that every crypto winter (in 2014 and 2018 before) is as brutal, but the industry has always come back 3. Ethereum & its ecosystem represents this application-led growth. Gautam believes that value within crypto will migrate from the speculative crypto assets to more utility and application-driven ecosystems such as Ethereum and its related Layer-2 platforms 4. FTX contagion effects are isolated to select players with FTX only 10% of the global trading volumes, and have strengthened the blockchain financial economy 5. Regulation is coming but adds legitimacy to the space for institutions to participate and will be a net positive in the long run in our view. More Less Source: Bernstein Link Copied Jan 04 2023 at 07:00 Bitcoin - ending the year on a low note Bitcoin transformed from the most exciting to the most boring asset. Many shattered dreams and it is incredible to see it become this boring. Second chart shows Bitcoin's volatility implosion, ending the year at lows. Once again, do not confuse direction with pace... More Less Source: RefinitivSource: AmberdataView one more chart Link Copied Dec 31 2022 at 17:00 2/3 down more than 90% Go figure where the break even is for most... More Less Source: Thanefield Capital Link Copied Dec 27 2022 at 23:30 Bitcoin - beware US sessions Asia was never bullish, but the "reversal" in US and Europe has been huge. More Less Source: Thanefield Capital Link Copied Dec 27 2022 at 22:59 Is but a dream within a dream NFT sales peaked at $7.1B this past January. Since then, the digital certificates of ownership have experienced a significant decline in demand. Last month, the combined sales of the top 5 marketplaces dropped to the lowest level since July 2021 — when OpenSea was the only open marketplace among them. Funding to NFT, gaming, and metaverse startups has also taken a plunge — falling to its lowest level since Q2’21 last quarter. More Less Source: CB Insights Link Copied Dec 17 2022 at 01:00 Strong BS too expensive? You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 12 minutes ago at 18:00 Buyback warning You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 32 minutes ago at 17:40 VIX got seasonality You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied an hour ago at 17:20 Perceived fear vs realized fear You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied an hour ago at 17:00 Remember seasonality? You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 2 hours ago at 16:40 S&P 500 debt maturity wall You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 2 hours ago at 16:20 CTAs in Europe You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 2 hours ago at 16:00 S&P500 borrow costs You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 2 hours ago at 16:00 Reshuffling big books is very hard You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 3 hours ago at 15:40 Office underperformance You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 3 hours ago at 15:20 Credit's ides of March You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 3 hours ago at 15:00 We remain in erratic territory You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 3 hours ago at 14:45 Even tighter lending? You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 4 hours ago at 14:30 The explosion in emergency borrowing You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 4 hours ago at 14:20 What a difference a few weeks make You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 4 hours ago at 14:00 Defaults You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 5 hours ago at 13:40 The mighty US Consumer You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 5 hours ago at 13:20 The cross You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 5 hours ago at 13:00 Got yield? You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 6 hours ago at 12:40 Got DB yield? You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 6 hours ago at 12:30 Europe's tiny banking crisis You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 6 hours ago at 12:20 Positioning extreme: Bonds You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 6 hours ago at 12:00 Positioning extreme: mutual funds in mega-tech You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 6 hours ago at 11:45 Positioning extreme: Crude You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 7 hours ago at 11:40 Positioning extreme: HFs in equities You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 7 hours ago at 11:30 Terms Privacy © 2023 The Market Ear