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Submission: On July 26 via manual from US — Scanned from DE
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CASEY HANDMER'S BLOG
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WE’RE GOING TO NEED A LOT OF SOLAR PANELS
The team at Terraform Industries is now 11 people working towards a near term
future where atmospheric CO2, much of it centuries of unpriced industrial waste,
becomes the preferred default source of industrial carbon. Our family of
technologies will displace drilling and mining as sources of carbon and, in the
process, stop the net flux of carbon from the crust into the atmosphere and
oceans that is causing anthropogenic climate change.
Terraform Industries’ process for combining solar power and atmospheric CO2 to
generate natural gas.
Our process works by using solar power to split water into hydrogen and oxygen,
concentrating CO2 from the atmosphere, then combining CO2 and hydrogen to form
natural gas. Very similar processes can produce other hydrocarbon fractions,
including liquid fuels. Synthetic hydrocarbons are drop in replacements for
existing oil and gas wells and are distributed through existing pipeline
infrastructure. As far as any of the market participants are concerned, fuel
synthesis plants are less polluting, cheaper gas wells that convert capital
investment into steady flows of fuel in a boringly predictable way.
How fuel synthesis plants integrate into existing hydrocarbon distribution
infrastructure and displace fossil production.
Most recently, Terraform Industries succeeded in producing methane from hydrogen
and CO2.
It turns out it’s possible to turn CO2 and H2 into CH4.
There is nothing particularly special about the technological approach we’re
taking. Each of the various parts is built on at least 100 years of industrial
development, but up until this point no-one has considered scaling these up as a
fundamental source of hydrocarbons, because doing so would be cost prohibitive.
Why? The machinery is not particularly complex, but the energy demands are
astronomical. Yet as our atmospheric CO2 concentration creeps steadily ever
upwards year over year, our ability to extract silicon from rocks and transform
it in frankly magical ways continues to progress.
One of these ways has produced the cheapest electricity ever. Electricity so
cheap that in an ever growing number of markets it now makes more sense to turn
solar electricity into hydrocarbons, than to burn hydrocarbons to make
electricity.
To a good approximation, the Earth is a pile of iron atoms (the core) surmounted
by a pile of oxygen atoms (the mantle and crust), with other, smaller atoms
filling in the gaps. One of the most common of these is silicon, and the
silicate minerals are the major component of 95% of rocks. To say that
extracting sufficiently pure crystalline silicon is difficult is an
understatement, but we’ve been able to do it for longer than a human lifetime
and we are continuing to make steady progress. The silicon industry turns over
nearly a trillion dollars a year, so the profit motive is doing its job!
Silicon is one of several materials that can be used to make solar photovoltaic
(PV) panels, in addition to its starring role in integrated semiconductors
inside computers. The solar panel industry has been growing by about 25-35% per
year for the last decade, making steady progress on cost and becoming a
mainstream energy source to the point where its continued displacement of other
grid power sources is partly limited only by the battery manufacturing ramp
rate, itself redlining at about 250%/year!
Wright’s Law describes the tendency of some products to get cheaper with a
growing manufacturing rate. It is not guaranteed by the laws of physics, but
rather describes the outcome of a positive feedback loop, where a lower cost
increases demand, increases revenue, increases investment, increases cognitive
effort, and further lowers cost. For solar technology, the same effect is known
as Swanson’s Law, and works out at 20% cost reduction per doubling of cumulative
installations since 1976.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/08/Solar-pv-prices-vs-cumulative-capacity.png
This is not the full story, though. Solar has only been cost competitive with
other forms of grid electricity generation since about 2011, at which point
investment and engineering effort greatly increased. Since 2011 there has been
an acceleration of production growth rate and an increase in the learning rate,
such that the cost decline is now 30-40% per doubling. For more details, check
out Ramez Naam’s excellent blog on the topic.
https://rameznaam.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Solar-Costs-Learning-Rate-2010-2020-Naam-2020-Analysis.jpg
For more than a decade, some industry experts have predicted that cost
improvements, and installed capacity, will imminently flat line. The chart below
shows the “hairy back” of these failed predictions.
2021 production (190 GW) is literally off this chart.
https://rameznaam.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/IEA-Solar-Growth-Forecasts-vs-Reality-Simon-Evans-Carbon-Brief.jpg
It has been clear to me that absent a fundamental physical limit being reached,
there is no reason to suspect that the still accelerating positive feedback loop
would slow down or stop. Here’s a post I wrote about the topic back in 2018. If
anything, we should expect production growth rate to increase from around three
years per doubling to perhaps two years. It is still not fast enough.
Global solar production last year (2021) was about 190 GW. With 30% cost
reduction per doubling, solar continues its steady march into adjacent
competitive energy markets and its displacement and augmentation of energy
generation.
What people have missed is that reaching cost parity on fuel synthesis will
unlock huge new demand centers and flatten the gradient on the demand curve
enough. Even if we copied each new factory 5 times, reducing learning rate by 5x
in exchange for increasing production 5x, price declines will still stimulate
far more demand than this expanded production can meet.
https://solargis.com/maps-and-gis-data/download/world
Regular readers of this and similar blogs will be familiar with this chart of
global photovoltaic power potential. Some places will win the solar power
lottery, much as other places have historically “won” the oil lottery. Unlike
oil, solar resources are much more evenly spread over the world. On the chart
above, the US south west receives around 5.2 kWh/kWp, while notoriously dreary
England receives only 3.2 kWh/kWp. Does this mean that Britain should import
solar power from north Africa? Not quite.
At 30% cost reduction and three years per doubling of production rate, Britain’s
cost will match Los Angeles’ in less than six years. There are a few parts of
the world, particularly at extreme northern latitudes, where solar power is
truly painful, but they are few and their population is low, compared to the
billions who live in generally sunny-enough locations. When their local cost of
solar falls to the point where synthetic atmospheric CO2-derived hydrocarbons
are cheaper than importing it from (probably) the Middle East, demand will
increase substantially. How much?
The chart below is a basic Sankey diagram showing energy flows in the US in
2021. A much more thorough (though less screenshotable) version can be found at
Energy Literacy. The Quad is a unit of energy:
> A quad is a unit of energy equal to
> 1015 (a short-scale quadrillion) BTU,or 1.055×1018 joule (1.055 exajoules or
> EJ) in SI units.
> The unit is used by the U.S. Department of Energy in discussing world and
> national energy budgets. The global primary energy production in 2004 was 446
> quad, equivalent to 471 EJ.
> Some common types of an energy carrier approximately equal to 1 quad are:
>
> 8,007,000,000 gallons (US) of gasoline
>
> 293,071,000,000 kWh
>
> 293.07 terawatt-hours (TWh)
>
> 33.434 gigawatt-years (GWy)
>
> 36,000,000 tonnes of coal
>
> 970,434,000,000 cubic feet of natural gas
>
> 5,996,000,000 UK gallons of diesel oil
>
> 25,200,000 tonnes of oil
>
> 252,000,000 tonnes of TNT or five times the energy of the Tsar Bomba nuclear
> test
>
> 12.69 tonnes of uranium-235 (with 83.14 TJ/kg)
>
> 6 s sunlight reaching Earth [10 hours a year for 8 billion people to enjoy US
> standards of living]
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quad_(unit)
https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/sites/flowcharts/files/2022-04/Energy_2021_United-States_0.png
In particular, the US consumes about 37 Quads of energy for electricity
generation, of which about a third goes into wires and the rest is lost in
thermodynamic heat loss in generating stations and transmission. Ceteris paribus
while solar PV and batteries are much less inefficient, PV capacity factors are
limited by daytime sunlight, seasonal daylight variations, poor weather, and
mismatches between times of peak generation and consumption. The end state of
the solar electricity build out will likely see 3-6x overbuild in nameplate
capacity, and large variations in electricity price by time of year, day, and
location. These price differences, incidentally, already drive the engine of
arbitrage which has turbocharged the battery industry.
Analysts recognize that coal and natural gas used for electricity production
will eventually be displaced by renewable generation. Just as converting
chemical energy in the form of fuel into electricity endures 45-75%
thermodynamic losses, converting electricity back into chemical fuels loses
60-70% of the energy in the process. Converting solar power into natural gas
only to burn it in a gas turbine power plant could help with long term seasonal
energy storage but is so much less cost competitive than other ways to stabilize
electricity supply that we should expect this usage modality in, at most, niche
cases.
But what of other uses of carbon-based fuels? In the US, roughly twice as much
energy is consumed by transportation, industry, and other uses, as in direct
electrical generation. Electrification of cars and trucks proceeds apace but
other, more fuel hungry forms of transport including aviation are harder to
convert. Fuel uses for high temperature industry will continue to demand
non-electrical processes. In particular, it’s easy for industry to transition to
purely electrical energy if it’s cheaper for them to use it, but not if it’s
not.
If we want to use organic market demand for cheap hydrocarbons to fund the build
out of a global network of solar powered atmospheric CO2 scrubbers that can
remove a meaningful fraction of our planet-warming legacy industrial CO2 waste,
then we have to compete on price and convenience, not just on warm-and-fuzzies.
Unlike the electrical grid where, by default, power is generated and consumed
simultaneously, capacity factor and intermittency are less of a concern for
synthetic hydrocarbons, since existing infrastructure and use cases already
enable days, if not weeks, of storage. The power intensive parts of fuel
synthesis plants, most prominently electrolyzers, should only operate during the
day. The impact of diurnal power supply variations on plant design demands only
lower capital costs so that amortization is less painful. Since rapid scaling
requires low capital costs anyway, and capital costs usually buy energy
efficiency that we neither need, nor want, this trade is not particularly
painful.
Synthetic fuels’ displacement of existing sources of coal, oil, and gas will
require only enough overbuild to compensate for daytime operation, thermodynamic
losses, and any additional induced demand. Terraform’s megawatt scale plant
design targets 30% efficiency, but will probably gradually trade that for lower
cost over time as power costs continue to fall.
13 Quads of electrical consumption in the US will require perhaps 50 Quads of
solar generation, profitable deployment of batteries, and no further miracles as
displacement occurs organically over the next 10-20 years. 70 Quads of fossil
fuel consumption will be displaced by about 240 Quads of solar generation, and
there will be a steep price incentive to enable this displacement.
In the US, we are anticipating a 6-10x demand increase once solar costs cross
the critical threshold. In the current market, production capacity increases lag
market expansion caused by cost reductions, but only slightly. In fact, in an
era of steady displacement, learning rate is pegged to these market
characteristics since it reflects a roughly optimal R&D investment strategy.
Once we cross the synthetic fuels market expansion threshold, the legacy
learning rate glide slope will be wildly inadequate to serve expansions in
demand.
What is the solar cost threshold of interest? One barrel of oil contains about
1.7 MWh of chemical energy. Synthesizing a barrel of oil requires about 5.7 MWh
of electricity at 30% conversion efficiency. Crude oil prices are between $60
and $100/barrel, indicating cost parity at between $10 and $17/MWh. There are
already solar farms installed in some places that sell power at these prices,
and between now and 2030 solar costs should come down at least another 60%.
Let’s look at how small price reductions will affect demand in more detail. I
sampled these two datasets for world solar PV potential and population density
at millions of locations, then marginalized over population and binned by price
decreases of 1% per month. 1% per month corresponds to 25% price reduction and 3
years per doubling of production, which is slightly conservative.
World photovoltaic potential. https://globalsolaratlas.info/download/world World
population density in 2030. https://ghsl.jrc.ec.europa.eu/download.php fancy map
here: https://luminocity3d.org/WorldPopDen/ Installation of synthetic fuel
plants vs time assuming cost parity at $10/kcf or $60/barrel.
The curve above shows how much synthetic fuel demand will occur as a function of
time, assuming only 1% solar price reduction per month, 30% fuel synthesis
efficiency, and cost parity at $10/kcf of natural gas or $60/barrel of crude.
The shape is a function only of the distribution of sun that humans enjoy
wherever they live. Tweaking efficiency, price drop rate, or cost parity price
only changes the timeline scale, and not by more than a few years each way.
Within 8 years of first hitting price parity anywhere, more than half of the
world’s population will be within the addressable market, requiring >100 TW of
solar PV generation.
This is what I mean when I say we’re looking at a very near term demand unlock,
and that we’re going to need a lot of solar panels. On one hand, contemplating
scaling the PV industry to meet this demand is a daunting prospect. On the
other, here is a market and technology based mechanism that can organically
displace fossil carbon use in a single generation and leave behind enough CO2
capture machinery that we can choose to draw down 100 ppm of CO2 with a tiny
tax, rather than the hypothetical reorganization of the entire world economy and
re-instantiation of feudal levels of poverty and hunger for most of the world’s
populace.
Earlier this year we were anticipating hitting cost parity in our beachhead
markets some time this decade. Then Russia invaded Ukraine, and European energy
security evaporated. Things would look a bit different, perhaps, if the existing
European nuclear power industry hadn’t been shot in the foot. If European solar
manufacturing had maintained its momentum. If the wind turbine industry was
treated as seriously as Airbus’ aircraft manufacturing. These are hypotheticals,
and we cannot change the past. What we can change is how we adapt in future.
No matter what happens, Europe is looking at a cold winter. We absolutely should
do everything we can to reduce conflict, improve building insulation and
resiliency, and safeguard existing energy supply chains. This is necessary but
it is not enough. We also need to choose a future of abundance, and that means
an immediate emergency crash program to mass produce solar panels wherever and
however we can at the highest possible rate. We no longer have the luxury of a
decade to quibble about site placement or minor environmental impacts. The
alternative is catastrophic climate change and mass starvation. The impact of
solar farms on unimproved land is low, and trivial to reverse if, in future, we
decide to remediate land. Certainly, it is far less impactful than agriculture,
which already consumes a much higher fraction of the Earth’s land surface than
solar panels ever will.
Terraform Industries’ synthetic natural gas process is not particularly
complicated or difficult to achieve. We intended to make it easy to scale and
deploy. If Europe had enough solar power deployed, even at current European
solar prices, we could synthesize desperately needed natural gas at lower cost
than transoceanic liquefied natural gas (LNG) importation, which is the next
best option.
At current prices, Europe spends nearly a billion dollars per day on natural gas
imports. Solar panel factory construction is cheap by comparison, even at the
required scale. Europe would need about 1.5 TW of solar power generation to
displace all imports, though even 10% of this would be very helpful. That’s
about 0.3% of Europe’s land area. At current prices, completing this build out
would cost about the same as a year of natural gas imports, and the end result
would be persistent European energy independence for the first time in its
history.
If you are a European policy maker, entrepreneur, investor, or manufacturer
interested in learning more, please reach out. Terraform has no immediate plans
to enter the European market but we will help anyone we can get this process
underway.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has accelerated the cost threshold transition. What
previously might have occurred in 2026 occurred on February 24, 2022. Beyond
that point, provided that the learning rate doesn’t fall below 5% (it is
currently 30% and increasing), additional production will lower prices and
expand market demand faster than it can sate it, more or less indefinitely.
Already, new solar installations in Europe (cloudy, rainy Europe) will pay for
themselves in less than three years. This is faster than nearly any energy
infrastructure in history.
At current rates of production growth, the supply/demand mismatch will see a 10
year backlog between the time when local solar powered synthetic fuel production
reaches cost parity with fossil sources, and when solar supply will be available
to meet that demand. Ten years! Ten years of energy insecurity. Ten years of a
Russian dictator unilaterally setting foreign policy anywhere its pipelines
reach. 500 GT of additional, avoidable CO2 emissions. Perhaps 0.9°C of avoidable
temperature rise. Hundreds of millions of lives harmed or prematurely ended by
climate change.
We’re going to need a lot of solar panels. If 300 Quads are adequate to meet
current US needs, then roughly 3000 Quads are needed to saturate global demand
at US standards of living. Yes, solar synthetic fuels can overcome oil scarcity
even in traditionally underdeveloped places. I expect that usage patterns,
efficiency targets, and consumption will shift quite a bit by the time we
complete this task, but we have to baseline somewhere. 3000 Quads is roughly 300
TW of solar generation capacity, occupying about 5% of Earth’s land surface
area, and split between roof top installations in cities and dedicated plants on
nearby less developed land. For comparison, agriculture uses 18% of Earth’s land
surface area, and largely uninhabited deserts are 33%. Ultra low cost solar
power will be ground mounted, and ideally rolled off a spool onto the ground
similar to chemical-free plasticulture today. Synthetic fuel byproducts include
oxygen and water, so limited direct irrigation in arid fuel production areas
will also be possible.
300 TW is a lot of power. Roughly 20x our current global electrical production
capacity. At that scale, hydrocarbon fuels will be cheaper than they are today
nearly everywhere, while electrical power will be up to 20x cheaper, strongly
favoring direct electrification where possible. Cheaper fuel means less
scarcity, less poverty, and less damage to the environment.
Current global PV production is about 200 GW/year, with production doubling
every three years. At this rate we’ll get to 300 TW cumulative production in
2048 or so. Not soon enough. If production maintains a 1% price drop per month
and manufacturing scales up to meet demand, we can get most of the way there by
2033.
The sooner we get there, the sooner we can begin to roll back damage to the
environment caused by breakneck industrialization and exploitation of fossil
carbon. Any and all steps to increase the manufacturing growth rate are needed.
If we can contract the production doubling time from three years to 18 months,
we can reduce the backlog from 10 years to just 4. 300 GT of CO2 emission
avoided, 0.6°C temperature rise averted, tens of millions of lives saved.
Substituting solar power into our electrical grid and atmospheric CO2-derived
hydrocarbons into our fuel supply chain is just the beginning. We want to
support a future of abundance and wealth, while avoiding starvation even as
legacy climate damage shifts rainfall patterns and causes extreme weather.
Let’s take the Colorado River as an example. Historical average flows of 22,000
cubic feet per second (cfs) were mediated through several large dams, diverted
for agriculture and city water supplies, and support about $1.4t of US GDP
annually. A series of more recent droughts have seen the annual flow collapse to
less than half the historical average. The river is drying up, and with it the
communities that depend on it.
Caitlin Ochs / Reuters
There are higher value uses for water but modern reverse osmosis (RO)
desalination plants can generate a cubic meter of fresh water from the ocean for
just 2.5 kWh. This works out to 250 kW per cfs, or 5.5 GW for the entire
Colorado River. That is, the entire flow could be replaced by RO for just one
5.5 GW power plant adjacent to enough RO to exceed total Saudi desal capacity by
a factor of 10. If it were solar powered, we’d need more like 15 GW of capacity
to operate just during the day, and about 3x this again to pump the water up
over the intervening mountain ranges towards the Colorado headwaters.
This sounds like a continent-traversing water transport megaproject, but we’ve
done it before. Back before RO and solar power, water scarcity in California was
solved on a generational time scale by the visionary construction of an enormous
network of canals and pumps that effectively terraformed large swaths of the
state, and which we take for granted now. But for climate change, this system
would be adequate indefinitely but the times have found us, yet again.
Artificially supporting the Colorado river’s flows in their entirety would cost
only a few billion dollars a year – not even cents on the dollar compared to its
economic productivity. It is true that the Colorado is not a large river by
global standards, but if we’re facing global water shortages we should be happy
to have effectively infinite extremely cheap solar power available to
re-irrigate what limited arable land we must depend on. 300 TW of solar PV build
out for synthetic fuels and electrification will drive costs low enough that,
should we need it, we can augment the natural water cycle and reverse
desertification at arbitrary scale.
We need better, faster, cheaper ways to make PV panels. Investors and developers
can count on extremely robust market demand going forward. Any economy that can
support manufacture of PV or parts of the supply chain should work towards that
rather than rely on imports from other countries desperate to sate their own
energy demands.
The power is in our hands. No part of this transition requires alien technology,
50 years of fundamental R&D, or miracles of human coordination. We need only
take existing functioning processes and mechanisms and turn them up to 11.
July 22, 2022July 23, 2022 cjhandmer
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24 THOUGHTS ON “WE’RE GOING TO NEED A LOT OF SOLAR PANELS”
1. jezweston58d681138b says:
July 22, 2022 at 7:41 pm
You’re saying the US needs 30 quads of energy from natural gas, so you want
100 quads of electricity from PV which gets converted into hydrocarbons at
30% efficiency.
Or you could have 30 quads of electricity from PV and use that directly,
for one-third the capital cost of the PV.
Sure, there’s aviation fuel but LLNL figure you quote has 1 quad of natural
gas for transportation and 29 quads for uses that are easy to electrify. So
why waste electricity making hydrocarbons when that electricity is better
used directly?
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1. cjhandmer says:
July 23, 2022 at 2:47 am
I agree, the market will determine ultimate use shares.
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2. ncmncm says:
July 23, 2022 at 11:00 am
Aviation fuel will soon be LH2 produced and liquified right at the
airport. Old kerosene craft will find it impossible to compete with
them.
But it will take some time to transition, because things happen slowly
in aviation. I am expecting the LH2 will be carried in nacelles slung
under the wings, aside the engines, because there would not be room for
insulation and enough fuel inside the wings. A nacelle keeps piping
short.
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1. TheRadicalModerate says:
July 25, 2022 at 4:15 am
Jet A is almost 11.6x more dense than liquid hydrogen. LH2 provides
only slightly higher specific impulse for airbreathing engines, so
the extra weight of the tanks will kill you.
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2. Bruce Handmer says:
July 23, 2022 at 12:29 am
Outstanding! The most exciting thing I’ve read for a long time.
Bruce Handmer, sent from my iPhone
>
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3. ruralcounsel says:
July 23, 2022 at 6:39 am
Isn’t this what green living plants do? Just at a different time scale.
CO2 + Water + sunlight = carbon compounds.
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1. cjhandmer says:
July 23, 2022 at 3:03 pm
Yes, and can do again if you want to try support 8 billion people with
agrarian subsistence farming. Solar PV is about 1000x more productive
per unit area.
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4. ncmncm says:
July 23, 2022 at 11:12 am
Salt Lake City is in a desperate crisis because the Great Salt Lake is
drying up, and the ground it vacates generates arsenic dust that the wind
blows over everybody. Their response thus far has been to pray.
But if they built out a solar farm covering the Great Salt Lake,
evaporation would radically slow, and the lake could begin to fill up
again.
Generally, building out solar panels in the desert is a very bad idea.
Idiot investors think otherwise, so lots of investment money is available
for it. But building out floating arrays on reservoirs can as much as
double output vs. desert panels, via cooling and less dust, make the panels
last much longer, and radically reduce evaporation and biofouling in your
reservoir. Wildlife loves them. Excess power might be used to extract water
vapor from out of the wind, where that is valuable.
If you don’t have a reservoir yet, they are useful enough to justify making
one to float panels on.
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5. vjeran says:
July 23, 2022 at 1:15 pm
do we have the resources needed to produce those solar panels?
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1. cjhandmer says:
July 23, 2022 at 3:06 pm
Yes
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6. Patricia Sheffield says:
July 23, 2022 at 2:15 pm
Gee, this looks awfully similar to what trees already do.
LikeLiked by 1 person
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1. cjhandmer says:
July 23, 2022 at 3:06 pm
Very slowly.
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1. kesor says:
July 23, 2022 at 1:37 pm
So lets do what trees do very fast, so that all the trees die and we
have a desert instead of green forests? I don’t get your argument
here … trees do it very slowly, thus we need to replace them with
robots and chemical plants? What?
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2. cjhandmer says:
July 23, 2022 at 8:53 pm
Instead of trying to support 100m humans in agrarian subsistence
serfdom, we can support 10b by capturing excess sunlight that falls
on non forested regions, preserve forests, and keep universal hunger
a distant memory.
LikeLiked by 2 people
3. ncmncm says:
July 24, 2022 at 7:57 am
This will be tricky, so stay with me…
Solar panels can be placed where trees aren’t. We can have trees and
also solar panels.
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7. Shawn Tolidano says:
July 23, 2022 at 6:45 pm
Can you speak to the inevitable breakdown/replacement/end of life of solar
panels? Specifically the waste component, the reusability/recycling
component, the waste management cost, and labor cost of replacing the panel
against the costs of alternative fuel sources? How long does a panel now
last? What is the thing that “runs out” first?
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1. cjhandmer says:
July 24, 2022 at 2:40 am
It could be way worse than it is and still less impact than the
alternatives.
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2. ncmncm says:
July 24, 2022 at 7:55 am
Ultra-pure silicon is a valuable resource. Anybody discarding busted
solar panels, in bulk, is an idiot, as they will soon be easily sold for
cash money. The metal is etched away, and the silicon goes straight into
the crucible to have its trace dopants purified out.
Panels last a lot longer when floated on a reservoir. Nobody can be sure
how much longer, yet.
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8. freakingrectangle says:
July 24, 2022 at 12:38 am
What is your plan for overcoming the political friction of fossil fuel
companies who will likely resist any attempts to out-compete them for
natural gas production?
Side question: why are forecasting bodies so consistently bad at predictind
solar energy production?
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1. cjhandmer says:
July 24, 2022 at 12:54 am
I suspect incumbents will get on board very quickly. Biggest improvement
in their fundamentals for decades.
Predictions are hard.
LikeLike
Reply
9. Lukas says:
July 24, 2022 at 5:10 am
Fascinating blog, thank you! I have a question though, regarding “in the
process, stop the net flux of carbon from the crust into the atmosphere and
oceans that is causing anthropogenic climate change.” – as I understand it
there wouldn’t actually be a reduction of atmospheric CO2 since the
generated natural gas would eventually be consumed and hence returned into
the atmosphere.. so someone else would need to use only the scrubbers and
pump the co2 back into the ground (or whatever) for an actual removal (ie
do the “carbon capture” thing)? I guess that may be described somewhere
else on this blog but how optimistic are you about efficiency gains in the
scrubbing process)?
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1. cjhandmer says:
July 24, 2022 at 3:38 pm
Not all hydrocarbons get burned. Some gets converted to plastics and
chemicals etc etc.
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10. A says:
July 24, 2022 at 1:09 pm
Casey, have you heard of Power roll flexible PVs? They print them on
plastic film. The possible scaling speed is amazing. The downsides are the
efficiency of 15% and the not so big effective lifespan(though they say
they envision a variety of grade types). Thank you for your work.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Reply
11. Dan Wylie-Sears says:
July 26, 2022 at 1:54 pm
Quote:
“Some places will win the solar power lottery, much as other places have
historically “won” the oil lottery.”
This seems unlikely to me. If there’s any place where solar is cheap enough
to make fuel production viable, then I expect it to be cheap enough almost
everywhere that it’s almost never worth moving production away from cheaper
labor and materials just to get cheaper electricity. Winning the solar
power lottery would be about like winning the air lottery. Boston has more
air than Denver, because we’re at sea level and they’re halfway up a
mountain range. If you drive there from here, your car has to adjust its
fuel injection to maintain efficiency and avoid emissions. But you don’t
have to think about that when deciding which city to visit.
Quote:
“we should be happy to have effectively infinite extremely cheap solar
power available to re-irrigate what limited arable land we must depend on”
We shouldn’t have to depend on arable land at all. If we can make alkanes
out of electricity and air more cheaply than we can take them from the
ground, the same is nearly certain to be true of chemicals with a few
oxygen and nitrogen atoms.
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