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Accessibility statementSkip to main content Democracy Dies in Darkness SubscribeSign in Advertisement Democracy Dies in Darkness PoliticsBiden administrationThe FixThe BriefsPollingDemocracy in AmericaElection 2024 PoliticsBiden administrationThe FixThe BriefsPollingDemocracy in AmericaElection 2024 TRUMP’S MANDATE ISN’T AS ‘POWERFUL’ AS HE SUGGESTS. HERE’S WHY. The size of Trump’s and the GOP’s perceived and actual mandate has huge implications for what lies ahead. 4 min 3135 Donald Trump attends an election-night party in West Palm Beach, Florida, early Wednesday morning. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post) Analysis by Aaron Blake November 7, 2024 at 4:56 p.m. EST When Donald Trump emerged victorious as president-elect in the wee hours of Wednesday morning, he was characteristically hyperbolic about his and the Republican Party’s achievement. “America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate,” Trump said. He quickly added that “the Senate races in Montana, Nevada, Texas, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, the great commonwealth of Pennsylvania were all won by the MAGA movement.” Get the latest election news and results playPlay now 32 min Follow on PODCAST EPISODE TRUMP'S DAY 1 TO-DO LIST Today, what Donald Trump’s second term as president could look like. Spotify Apple Google Amazon That latter part was premature, to say the least. In fact, Democrats have since been declared the winners of the Senate races in Michigan and Wisconsin, and they’ll likely win Nevada, too. But what about Trump’s earlier and related claim — that his and the GOP’s mandate was “unprecedented and powerful?” Story continues below advertisement Unprecedented: Surely not. 🏛️ Follow Politics Follow Powerful: That’s more subjective. But it’s evidently not that powerful, historically speaking. Advertisement While Trump’s win was larger than many expected and every swing state swung in his favor, his level of support is relatively par for the course for a victor. And Republicans on the whole didn’t do as well as he did. It’s all worth diving into, given the major questions about whether Trump and the GOP will actually pursue some of the extreme proposals he has pitched on the campaign trail — and given that his and his party’s mandate, both perceived and real, will play a role in what lies ahead. As things stand, Trump probably will sweep the seven swing states, but he will do so with only marginally more electoral votes (probably 312) than he won in 2016 (304) and President Joe Biden won in 2020 (306). Story continues below advertisement That 312 total would also outpace both of George W. Bush’s elections, but it’s fewer than in any election involving Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, George H.W. Bush or Ronald Reagan. And the 58 percent of electoral votes Trump probably will win would rank 41st all-time. Advertisement It’s more impressive given that we are a more polarized country today than we used to be, but it’s hardly out of step with other recent presidential election results. The other key measure here is the popular vote, which has no bearing on who is actually elected but does say something about their support nationwide. Trump is currently taking 50.9 percent of the popular vote and leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 3.3 points. That will shift as the remaining votes are counted, but it seems Trump will actually win the popular vote this time, which he didn’t do when he won the 2016 election. Story continues below advertisement At the same time, his popular-vote share probably will drop as the remaining (mostly western and largely Californian) votes are counted. It’s likely he’ll win a smaller percentage of the popular vote than any non-Trump president-elect since 2000, when George W. Bush won despite losing the popular vote. A big question is whether he could wind up shy of a popular majority. Advertisement Regardless, it’s overstating it to claim an “unprecedented and powerful” mandate when half of the population didn’t vote for you. Which brings us to the House and the Senate. Whatever mandate Trump won, the broader Republican Party’s mandate appears to be smaller. That’s because, as those Senate results in Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin reinforce, Republican Senate candidates generally ran behind Trump — more than three points behind him in the swing states. Story continues below advertisement The reason Republicans flipped the Senate majority owes largely to the fact that the map was so favorable to them, rather than that voters swung so hard toward the GOP. Their pickups so far are in a trio of red states: Montana, Ohio and West Virginia. And among the swing states Trump won, they’ll probably go 1 for 5 by flipping only Pennsylvania. Advertisement The battle for the House is a somewhat similar story. With nearly 30 races undecided, it’s likely that Republicans will retain their slight majority, as I wrote earlier Thursday. But they could actually lose seats and even possibly the majority if things break against them. Which matters moving forward, practically speaking. We’ve seen how much the GOP has struggled with their slight House majority — if they’ll even have that come January — and they won’t have as big a Senate majority as they might have hoped for going into this election cycle, either. Story continues below advertisement But beyond the practical is what it says about Americans’ willingness to give Trump and the GOP room to operate and do some of the big and probably controversial things (see: large tariffs, mass deportation, etc.) he has talked about. Trump might believe he has just won a tremendous victory and feel emboldened to go places he didn’t before, particularly as he’s likely to surround himself with loyalists. But that doesn’t mean the American people will view themselves as having signed off on that. And there’s a pretty compelling argument to be made that they didn’t. Share 3135 Comments NewsletterWeekdays Early Brief The Washington Post's essential guide to power and influence in D.C. Sign up Recommended for you Recommended by Subscribe to comment and get the full experience. 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