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SO MUCH FOR THE RETURN TO THE OFFICE! ONE THIRD OF WORKDAYS ARE STILL SPENT AT
HOME AS AMERICA'S OFFICE BUILDINGS REMAIN HALF AS FULL AS BEFORE THE PANDEMIC

 * The statistics comes as offices across the US have remained vacant, paving
   the way for a potential financial crisis as high interest rates reduce
   property values
 * Banks such as Wells Fargo are already cutting their losses by preparing to
   off-load debts at a discount - a sign of their lack of faith in commercial
   real estate
 * Still, work-from-home levels still are not as high as they were during the
   peak pandemic, when 62 percent of American workers did their duties from home

By Alex Hammer For Dailymail.Com

Published: 21:00 GMT, 16 October 2023 | Updated: 21:25 GMT, 16 October 2023



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Nearly a third of US workdays are spent at home, federal statistics have shown,
more than three years after the pandemic shutdown the nation.

Separate data for office buildings shows that occupancy rates are only half as
full as they were before Covid struck in March 2020.

The staggering figures come amid mounting fears on Wall Street that when the
leases come up on the buildings, many companies will not renew and the
commercial real estate sector - traditionally considered a safe bet - will
implode. 

Big banks such as Wells Fargo are already cutting their losses by preparing to
offload debts at a discount even when borrowers are up to date - a sign of their
lack of faith in the once stalwart office real estate sphere.

Still, work-from-home levels still are not as high as they were during the peak
pandemic, when 62 percent of American workers did their daily duties from home. 

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Nearly a third of US workdays are spent at home, federal statistics have shown -
shining a light on how workers, more than three years removed from the pandemic,
are still largely opposed to returning to occupations in-person.

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While telling itself, the data is bolstered by similar new stats pertaining to
US office occupancy rates - currently half of what it was the month before the
event's outset in March 2020

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In the months since, people have slowly began filtering back - but the new data
show that phenomenon has begun to reverse since the start of this year.

As for why, experts have a few explanations - including the newfound appeal of
hybrid work model, and the fact that most employees find the money saved with a
WFH to be the equivalent of receiving an eight-percent raise.

Such notions have been supported by dozens of post-pandemic studies from
respected bodies like the National Bureau of Economic Research, and interviews
with parties considered to represent the average American office worker.

Numbers released from WFH Research's latest paper show much of the same - and
depict a potential reversal from the days when people began filtering back to
the office as lockdowns lessened.

Now a thing of the past, some of the measures taken in the midst of the
catastrophe - particularly social distancing - have managed to stick, the data
shows, after a low reached in January of the year.

At that point, pandemic-related behaviors like masks and vaccine boosters were
in most workers' rearview - sentiments expressed by a slight dip after the
winter holidays to 27 percent.

However, since then, the rate has slowly creeped up by percentage points that
each represent more than a million citizens, to the most recent rate, recorded
this July, of 31 percent.

Compare that to the December of last year, when 29 percent of workdays were
occurring at home - or the rate of working from home prior to the pandemic, a
comparatively paltry 4.7 percent.

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Still, work-from-home levels still are not as high as they were during the peak
pandemic, when 62 percent of American workers did their daily duties from home.
This graph shows work from home data among Americans from 1965 through 2023,
which remains elevated

Similarly, this month, occupancy rates in American offices were found to be at
50 percent of levels seen in February 2020 - the month before the cultural
climate surrounding remote work shifted almost instantly.

That shift - and desire to work from the comforts of one's home - has since
stuck, something already predicted by scientists in studies like the NBER's
appropriately titled Why Working from Home Will Stick, published in April 2021.

However, more than two years later, estimates offered by those scientists - who
in that case interviewed more than 30,000 Americans about at-home work - have
still fallen short, with the WFH rate associated with this past July standing at
more than 11 percent points higher than the report's estimate.

Then pegged at 20 percent, the rate - when looking at the overall trend of the
past few months - appears to be on the rise, potentially showing the start of
what could be a monumental shift in the US job market.

Meanwhile, higher interest rates meant to hamper inflation continue to push down
property values by deterring buyers looking for offices - a phenomenon
compounded by continued vacancies.

As the pandemic-induced phenomenon continues to hammer offices owners, several
big banks' have begun providing them property loans - more than a trillion of
which will come due within the next two years, paving the way for potential
defaults.

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Meanwhile, higher interest rates meant to hamper inflation continues to push
down property values by deterring buyers - a phenomenon compounded by continued
office vacancies.

The willingness of some lenders to take losses on real estate loans that as of
now are  performing comes as multiple experts continue to warn the asset class
is the 'next shoe to drop' following the recent turmoil in the banking industry
- increasing the likelihood of another recession wrought by a mortgage crisis.

'Am I worried? The short answer is, 'yes'. The long answer is, 'hell yes,''
Senior Senate Banking Committee member John Kennedy told Politico Monday of what
many say is the next big threat over the US economy.

'I hope the Federal Reserve and the banking regulators are worried as well, and
I hope they won't be caught flat-footed like they were with the bank failures
that we've had so far,' the of Louisiana Senator added, in reference to SVB's
collapse this year.

In recent comments to The Financial Times, Chad Littell, an analyst at a major
research firm that tracks commercial real estate, added that prominent players
such as HSBC's recent decisions to unload outstanding debts at a loss come as a
red flag.

'The fact that banks want to sell loans is coming up in a lot of conversations,'
Littell, who works for New York-based CoStar, said over the summer in a similar
interview.

The finance expert further remarked of what he said is a clear sign of the
bank's determination to reduce their exposure to an increasingly unstable
market, telling the paper this year: 'I am hearing more about it than any time
in the past decade.'

At the time of writing, HSBC is in the process of pawning off hundreds of
millions of dollars worth of held-up commercial real estate loans potentially as
a discount, as part of a burgeoning effort to wind down direct lending to
property developers - who many say are poised to default come 2025.

Also taking part in this preemptive effort is PacWest, who in May unloaded
$2.6illion worth of construction lending contracts at a loss.

Firms like JP Morgan Chase, meanwhile, are ordering its managers  return to the
office full-time after years of remote work, during which most of their more
than 40 US offices were left vacant despite being pair for.

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'Am I worried? The short answer is, 'yes'. The long answer is, 'hell yes,''
Senior Senate Banking Committee member John Kennedy recently said of the looming
commercial real estate crisis - an increasingly likely event as more workers
elect to stay 

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In comments to The Financial Times , Chad Littell, an analyst at a major
research firm that tracks commercial real estate, said that prominent players
such as HSBC's recent decisions to unload outstanding debts at a loss is
indicative of banks' waning faith in commercial landlords

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Putting further pressure on both the real estate industry and banks is the fact
that the Fed last month issued its elevent consecutive interest rate hike in a
matter of months in July - a threat the agency's Chair, Jerome Powell, has
repeatedly sought to downplay

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Meanwhile, higher interest rates meant to hamper inflation continue to push down
property values by deterring buyers - a phenomenon compounded by the continued
office vacancies

The reasoning for the decision, aired by brass in a memo obtained by the Wall
Street Journal, was so staffers could be present for 'impromptu meetings' and
that senior employees could play a more 'critical role in reinforcing' the
banks' work culture.

Meanwhile, a host of other banks have implemented changes that would make it
easier to execute similar sales in the near future, as roughly 70 percent of
bank-held commercial mortgages still sit on the balance sheets of both regional
and small lenders.

About $1.5 trillion worth of those loans are set to mature over the next two
years - at a steep increase - due to stricter lending conditions
and unsustainable rates created wrought by the Fed.

While coming as bad news to landlords looking for a new lease for their office
buildings, the prospect of a widespread default and subsequent dips in
demand could stifle construction and development in major US cities - many of
which are still struggling to recover in the aftermath of the pandemic.

Putting further pressure on both the real estate industry and banks is the fact
that the Fed last month issued its tenth consecutive interest rate hike in a
matter of months by a quarter point - a threat Chair Jerome Powell has largely
downplayed.

'Banks and the banking system are strong and resilient, and well-positioned to
deal with the challenges they may face now or in the future,' Powell insisted to
Bloomberg in an interview late last month.

'While the financial stability tools helped to calm conditions in the banking
sector, developments there on the other hand are contributing to tighter credit
conditions and are likely to weigh on economic growth, hiring and inflation. 

'So as a result, our policy rate may not need to rise as much as it would have
otherwise to achieve our goals. Of course the extent of that is highly
uncertain.'

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JPMorgan Chase CEO, Jamie Dimon, is sounding the alarm as the Israel-Gaza war
sparks economy fears and predicting 'the most dangerous time the world has seen
in decades' is on its way

CEO's like JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon - and X's Elon Musk - have been vocal about a
desire to bring back workers full-time, with Dimon previously stating he was
worried the $3 billion Park Avenue building was not being used as much as it
should be. 

In August, DailyMail.com reported that Dimon was worried that the 70-floor
Manhattan building would sit empty if staff continued to work from home. 

The memo sent out over the summer appeared to address those concerns.  

'We need them to lead by example, which is why we're asking all managing
directors to be in the office five days a week,' the memo, sent to staffers in
June, read.

Currently, most employees are working hybrid between home and in office three
days per week. Some employees may work more with approval. 

Over on the West Coast, Walt Disney Co. announced in March that they would bring
employees back to the office four days per week. 

The move was met with major pushback as more than 2,000 employees signed a
petition to stop the return to office order. 

The mandate, the employees claimed, would lead to 'forced resignations among
some of our most hard-to-replace talent and vulnerable communities' while also
'dramatically reducing productivity, output, and efficiency.' 

'Sitting on Zoom calls in an office for four days a week while your co-workers,
partners, stakeholders, vendors, and customers do the same in a different part
of the world does not meet the core need,' the petition states.

'There is value in being together, but we also need to look forward and embrace
new paradigms that add value,' it continues.

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Dimon previously stating he was worried the $3 billion Park Avenue building was
not being used as much as it should be. Nonetheless, the bank still beat the
expectations of analysts in the last quarter

Further worsening matters is the fact that the US housing market is also
currently in the midst of a housing crisis - with properties in some cities
selling for hundreds of thousands of dollars less than they were just a year
ago. 

Two cities in the Bay Area - Oakland and San Francisco - are among the worst
offenders when it comes to decline by dollar amount, a phenomenon researchers
said is fueled in part by diminishing demand and the looming possibility of a
recession.

Other notable declines occurred in major metros like Austin, Boise, Salt Lake
City, Seattle, and Los Angeles - all of which saw their median home price shed
at least $60,000 since April of last year.

Many of those decreases were fueled by a mass migration of workers out of major
hubs amid the advent of remote work - which was at its worst in tech heavy
cities in Silicon Valley.

That phenomenon, the new statistics show, continues to persist today, and if
patterns serve as any precedent, could worsen in coming months.

Continue Reading Read Next Article >>
InflationHSBCLos Angeles


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   upset' after 'swastika and 'kill...
 * We're topping up the tan, not playing bingo in a nursing home: Pensioners
   needing some sun or...
 * Sir Jim Ratcliffe 'to commit £245m to improve Man United's ageing
   infrastructure', with the billionaire 'set...
 * So much for the war on cancer! Top oncologist accuses Government of
   'breathtaking incompetence' as 3...
 * Moment mystery car scratcher is caught on camera gouging marks in 80 parked
   vehicles in £40,000 vandalism...
 * Monkeypox virus is EVOLVING to be better at infecting people, analysis warns
 * Manchester City's Ruben Dias is linked to newly-single Love Island star
   Arabella Chi after eagle-eyed fans...
 * Alexander Zverev's ex-girlfriend claims he 'choked her against a wall in a
   row days before proposing' and...
 * Neo-Nazi who said he would 'kill a mixed-race child' and named his son
   'Adolf' could be freed within weeks...
 * We'll never have to work! Elon Musk tells Rishi Sunak how rise of 'magic
   genie' AI will eventually mean no...
 * Lib Dems target Jeremy Hunt's affluent Surrey seat with attack over stealth
   tax rises and increase in...
 * Liverpool star Luis Diaz's kidnapped father 'is set to be released in the
   next few hours' after terrorist...
 * Female paramedic, 37, faces the sack after crashing her Audi A4 into parked
   car while hosting drunken hen...

 * MORE HEADLINES

 * The Fab Four's final farewell: Beatles fans break down in tears as they
   listen to band's poignant 'last ever song' Now And Then - produced with AI -
   as Liam Gallagher hails the 'biblical, celestial, heartbreaking' track (and
   you can hear it here)
 * Sam Bankman-Fried's parents break down as disgraced FTX founder is found
   guilty on all seven counts and faces up to 115 years in jail: Defense lawyers
   vow to 'vigorously fight' his conviction
 * Wrath of Storm Ciaran: 104mph winds leave destruction 'like a disaster movie'
   as second flooded holiday park evacuated, part of M20 closed as an 'emergency
   measure' and 127,000 homes lose power - amid warnings people should not
   travel until Sunday
 * Hamas killers 'roasted babies in an oven' during October 7 terror attack,
   Israeli first responder claims
 * Storm Ciaran prompts the cancellation of hundreds of Bonfire Nights over the
   weekend as over 100mph winds batter the coast
 * Mother, 23, who suffered with anorexia died just six weeks after giving birth
   to her second child, inquest told
 * Nadine Dorries reveals ALL about shadowy Tory No10 fixer who had pet rabbit
   butchered in Mafia-style warning to his ex-girlfriend, in the
   most-anticipated political book of the year
 * ALASTAIR STEWART: The worst thing about dementia? It's reduced the love of my
   life to the role of carer. It's demeaning for her and makes me feel guilty
 * Channel 4 star Mrs Bling, 57, says she can't feel comfortable in her bikini
   amid row with Sandbanks neighbour over new balcony which 'allows him to peer
   into her garden'
 * Aerosmith frontman Steven Tyler assaulted teen model in 1975 by kissing and
   dry-humping her in NYC, leaving her with life-long physical injury, lawsuit
   alleges
 * Israel sets up 'Hamas Massacre' website featuring graphic photos and videos
   of the October 7 terror attack as it vows to 'document the horrors of that
   day'
 * EXCLUSIVE: Private £24,000-a-year girls school in north London 'shocked and
   upset' after 'swastika and 'kill Jews' slogan found daubed in the toilet' as
   teachers launch hunt for culprit behind anti-Semitic graffiti
 * London 'less safe for Jews than Israel' as 'tense' capital braces for
   'million strong' pro-Palestine protest to clash with Armistice Day next
   weekend, with thousands more to march across the country TOMORROW - as Tories
   demand Sadiq gets grip on the chaos
 * London chaos looms as hundreds of thousands plan to join pro-Palestine march
   on Saturday at same time Festival of Remembrance is held at Royal Albert Hall
 * Heartbreaking moment a Mexican air ambulance crashes and bursts into flames,
   killing four crew members - including the doctor - just moments before it was
   scheduled to land
 * Fairground horror as girl, 11, is left hanging from Ferris wheel when seat
   flips up, before finally losing her grip in front of screaming crowd and
   smashing through stall
 * Demise of Sam Bankman-Fried and his $32 billion cryptocurrency empire was
   triggered by single tweet from industry rival Changpeng Zhao which caused
   rush of withdrawals from FTX by customers who lost everything
 * Heroic tree surgeon who survived vicious axe attack to send drugs boss to
   jail in gripping BBC documentary The Detectives dies aged 24
 * Man, 74, is arrested in England over the murder of British grandmother who
   was stabbed to death in her Italian dream home, sparking international
   manhunt
 * We're topping up the tan, not playing bingo in a nursing home: Pensioners
   needing some sun or round-the-clock care flock to luxury £1,500-a-month
   retirement resorts in Thailand - which are nearly three times cheaper than
   the UK
 * Now you see it ... now you don't: Keir Starmer poppy row as Labour leader
   removes remembrance symbol before filming video slamming Islamophobia despite
   proudly sporting one for speech on Gaza hours earlier
 * Who Wants To Be A Millionaire star jailed for £4.5million fraud that saw him
   scam friend and family
 * More than 200 Cambridge University students sign letter saying they 'feel
   unsafe' after Conservative association booked hall for dinner and demand
   Christ's College stop society's 'alcohol-fuelled event'
 * We'll never have to work! Elon Musk tells Rishi Sunak how rise of 'magic
   genie' AI will eventually mean no one will need a job - in extraordinary
   interview with the Prime Minister after Bletchley Park summit
 * Storm Ciaran batters the Broadchurch Cliffs: Huge rockfall at Dorset tourist
   hotspot sends more than 300 tonnes of rock crumbling into the sea - as
   southern England braces for more heavy rain
 * Police officer accused of having a threesome with a drunken woman and
   colleague in the back of a patrol car tells jury it would be 'physically
   impossible' to do so
 * YouTubers fly to Poland to do their shopping... and discover they spend less
   than they would have in a supermarket in Britain
 * Warning to parents after boy, five, suffocated when he put his head into a
   helium balloon to 'pretend he was a dinosaur and surprise his family'
 * RICHARD EDEN: It's time to promote Princesses Beatrice and Eugenie to
   front-line royal duties. An ageing 'Firm' needs HELP!
 * Elon Musk tells Rishi Sunak AI will eventually mean no one needs to have a
   job in a conversation with the Prime Minister following the summit at
   Bletchley Park
 * IDF launches investigation after footage emerges showing soldiers abusing and
   humiliating West Bank Palestinians
 * Fears Hezbollah is set to declare war with Israel and light the touch paper
   for a larger regional conflict as terror group chief makes major speech today
   and IDF puts border troops on 'very high alert'
 * MOST READ IN DETAIL







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