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OECD URGES JAPAN'S CENTRAL BANK TO GRADUALLY RAISE INTEREST RATES

By Leika Kihara
January 11, 20245:31 AM GMT+1Updated a year ago
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Staff members of Bank of Japan walk between the BOJ headquarters buildings in
Tokyo, Japan September 20, 2023. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo Purchase
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 * Summary

 * BOJ should continue efforts to make YCC flexible - OECD
 * Japan is at 'turning point' with durable 2% inflation in sight
 * Monetary policy can gradually, modestly begin tightening - OECD

TOKYO, Jan 11 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan should gradually raise short-term
interest rates and make its bond yield control policy more flexible, if
inflation stays around its 2% target and is accompanied by sustained wage
growth, the OECD said on Thursday.
While the BOJ made tweaks to its yield curve control (YCC) last year to loosen
its tight grip on long-term interest rates, markets could challenge the policy
again if inflation remains above its 2% target and global yields go up, it said.
Advertisement · Scroll to continue

The central bank should thus continue efforts to make YCC more flexible, such as
by raising the 10-year bond yield target or moving to a short-term yield target,
the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said.
The BOJ should also gradually raise short-term rates from early 2024 if
inflation stays around its 2% target, wage growth accelerates and the output gap
closes, the OECD said in its 2024 report on Japan.
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"Japan is at a turning point, with inflation more likely to settle durably
around the 2% inflation target than at any time since its inception," the report
said on the prospects for achieving the BOJ's price target, which was introduced
in 2013.
"Greater flexibility in the conduct of yield curve control and a gradual modest
increase in the short-term policy interest rate are warranted, based on
projections of sustained inflation and wage dynamics," it said.

With inflation having exceeded 2% for well over a year, many market players
expect the BOJ to pull short-term interest rates out of negative territory this
year in a historic shift away from its prolonged ultra-loose monetary policy.
Any such move would follow steps the BOJ took last year to phase out YCC, a
policy that sets a 0% target for the 10-year government bond yield, such as by
watering down a rigid 1% cap set for the yield to a loose reference.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has stressed the bank's resolve to keep ultra-loose
policy settings intact until sustained achievement of 2% inflation, accompanied
by durable wage rises, comes into sight.
OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said it was understandable that the BOJ
would be keen to gather as much data as possible in judging whether Japan is
ready for higher rates.
But he said the OECD was "perhaps more optimistic that inflation will more
durably settle around 2%", even though the pace of price growth will likely slow
somewhat this year.

"Monetary policy can gradually and modestly begin tightening," he told a news
conference.
In the event of a rate hike by the BOJ, policymakers must be vigilant about
potential spillovers on domestic and global financial stability, the OECD said
in the report.
"Communicating the current and future monetary stance clearly and in a timely
manner is also key," it added.

Get a look at the day ahead in Asian and global markets with the Morning Bid
Asia newsletter. Sign up here.

Reporting by Leika Kihara; Editing by Kim Coghill and Edmund Klamann

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

 * Suggested Topics:
 * Asian Markets
 * Asian Markets

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