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HURRICANE CENTRAL




FLORIDA FLOODING CONTINUES TODAY, THEN GULF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK

BY JONATHAN ERDMAN

JUNE 14, 2024


Play
Another Area In The Gulf Expected To Develop
A new system on the heels of Tropical Storm Alberto could bring more heavy rain
to already-flooded areas.
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AT A GLANCE

 * Through Friday: A flow of deep tropical moisture will likely lead to flooding
   in Florida.
 * Early next week: A tropical depression or storm could form in the southwest
   Gulf of Mexico.
 * Regardless, heavy rain could soak parts of Louisiana, Texas, eastern Mexico
   and Central America.

Sign up for the Morning Brief email newsletter to get weekday updates from The
Weather Channel and our meteorologists.

T ropical moisture will continue to fuel locally heavy rain that could trigger
more flooding in Florida today. After that, we'll turn our attention to the
western Gulf of Mexico for the possible formation of a tropical depression or
storm next week, and that potential developing system could bring heavy rain to
parts of the northern and western Gulf Coasts, regardless.


F LORIDA'S SOAKING STATUS

More heavy rain is ahead for soaked Florida. South Florida has the greatest risk
of additional flooding today as more tropical moisture streams across the state.
Rainfall should become more spotty over the weekend, but we can't completely
rule out locally heavy downpours.

T he National Weather Service has posted a flood watch across much of southern
Florida, including Naples, West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, Miami and the
Florida Keys. Urban areas and locations already saturated by heavy rain will be
most prone to flooding.

Below is a look at the latest radar along with any alerts that are in effect
from the National Weather Service.



T his flooding rainfall Florida has seen in recent days was produced by a
tropical disturbance called Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center. That
disturbance has now moved past the state and still has a low chance to develop
into a tropical depression or storm off the Southeast coast, or well east of
Florida.


WATCHING WESTERN GULF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK

A tropical depression or storm could form in the western Gulf. C omputer
forecast models increasingly suggest a broader area of lower pressure will
develop over Central America and southern Mexico. Multiple waves of lower
pressure may ripple across the southern Gulf of Mexico or the eastern Pacific
through early next week.

Wind shear, a typical nemesis of developing tropical systems, may be strong near
the northern Gulf Coast next week, but may be light enough around the Bay of
Campeche to allow for development early next week. And as we've been discussing
ad nauseum since spring, Gulf water is record warm for this time of year, easily
supportive of tropical development.

I f a more concise storm system does develop, the majority of forecast guidance
suggests it would move slowly west or west-northwest through the western Gulf
sometime next week.

But this scenario could change. Check back with us at weather.com for updates in
the days ahead.

T he first two names in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season list are "Alberto",
then "Beryl".

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(Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the
next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)


(The possible area of tropical development according to the latest National
Hurricane Center outlook is shown by the polygon, color-coded by the chance of
development over the next seven days. An "X" indicates the location of a current
disturbance.)

Another soaking, regardless: Whether or not tropical development happens next
week, the same computer forecast models suggest the upper-air pattern will
change enough to slide this conveyor belt of deep, tropical moisture westward.

T hat would bring locally heavy rain to parts of the Gulf Coast from Louisiana
to as far west as Texas and eastern Mexico, beginning Sunday and lasting well
into the week.

Exactly where the heaviest rain could fall remains uncertain this far out in
time. T his shift should also give the Florida Peninsula a break from heavy
rain.




FLORIDA'S W ET RECAP

Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 feet have drenched South Florida. Serious flooding
unfolded Wednesday in the Miami-Dade and Broward County areas of South Florida,
prompting a rare flash flood emergency warning to be issued by the National
Weather Service. Rainfall totals on Wednesday alone were 10 to 15 inches in
those areas.

T otals this week ending early Friday are now over 21 inches in Miami Shores and
20 inches in the Hallandale area of Broward County. One location in the
Everglades of Collier County has now seen over two feet of rain.

I t's not just South Florida that's been drenched this week. Sarasota was hit by
flooding rainfall late Tuesday.

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M ORE ON WEATHER.COM

- Why The Atlantic's Slow Start To Hurricane Season Is Meaningless

- How To Prepare For Hurricane Season

- Florida's Wet Season Has Arrived

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering
national and international weather since 1996. His lifelong love of meteorology
began with a close encounter with a tornado as a child in Wisconsin. He
completed a Bachelor's degree in physics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison,
then a Master's degree working with dual-polarization radar and lightning data
at Colorado State University. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite
topics. Reach out to him on X (formerly Twitter), Threads, Facebook and Bluesky.






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