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June 1, 2022


US ECONOMY SHOWS SIGNS OF DOWNSHIFTING AS RATES, INFLATION BITE

by Bloomberg News
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(Bloomberg) — US economic growth looks to have downshifted in recent weeks in
the face of headwinds that include rising interest rates and inflation, the
Federal Reserve said.

Expansion and price gains may be moderating in parts of the country as
households and businesses navigate higher rates, the Russian invasion of Ukraine
and ongoing disruptions from Covid-19 infections, the central bank said in
its Beige Book report Wednesday.

“Four districts explicitly noted that the pace of growth had slowed since the
prior period,” it said. Business contacts in several districts reported becoming
more cautious as their outlooks grew more pessimistic.

Fed officials lifted interest rates by a half point in May and signaled they are
likely to make similar increases in June and July as they work to tame the
hottest inflation in decades. Policy makers are aiming to reduce demand for
labor, in turn cooling wage growth and helping to lower inflation, without
tipping the economy into recession.


> WHAT BLOOMBERG ECONOMICS SAYS…
> 
> “Taken as a whole, the information could be a sign the economy is losing
> momentum. We expect solid growth this quarter, but see broader cooling toward
> year-end.”
> 
> — Eliza Winger, economist
> 
> To read the full note, click here

The Beige Book suggested that uncertainty about the economic outlook is causing
some businesses to pull back on spending and investing. “Eight districts
reported that expectations of future growth among their contacts had diminished;
contacts in three districts specifically expressed concerns about a recession,”
the Fed said in the report.




 



While contacts in most Fed districts said they continued to see robust price
increases, three districts said that price increases had “moderated somewhat.”

Some areas also reported some softness in the labor market. Most districts said
employment rose “modestly or moderately,” but the pace of job growth slowed in
one district, the Fed said in the Beige Book that was based on anecdotes
collected by the Fed’s 12 regional banks through May 23 and compiled by the
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

Earlier Wednesday, JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon
warned investors that tightening monetary policy and Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine could create unprecedented headwinds for the economy and cautioned them
to prepare for an economic “hurricane.”

“That hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way,” he said at a
conference sponsored by AllianceBernstein Holdings. “We don’t know if it’s a
minor one or Superstorm Sandy. You better brace yourself.”

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told reporters Wednesday that it would be
“natural” to see slower economic growth. “We would expect growth to be slowing
to a pace that is more consistent with the longer-term potential growth rate of
the US economy, which many economists put at 1.75% to 2%,” Bullard said after a
virtual presentation to the Economic Club of Memphis. “We have certainly been
growing well above that over the last year or more.”







A separate report released Wednesday by the Labor Department showed that US job
openings fell in April from a record in the prior month but remained elevated,
with roughly two job openings for every unemployed American. That suggests
little relief for employers struggling to attract and retain workers. Another
update on the labor market will come Friday, when the government releases the
jobs report for May.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said last month that the Fed could take
a pause in September if inflation comes down over the summer. But Fed Governor
Chris Waller said this week that he supports raising rates in half-point
increments until he sees inflation coming down to the Fed’s 2% goal.

Policy makers will also begin shrinking the Fed’s $8.9 trillion balance sheet
this month, launching a second tool to help them battle rising prices. But
officials are unsure of what its effects will be on the economy and on markets.
The Federal Open Market Committee holds a policy meeting on June 14-15.

WORLD TAKES COVER FROM STOCK CHAOS IN OIL, UTILITIES AND CHINA

Optimism may be in short supply for equity investors caught in the downdraft of
volatile global markets, but pockets of shelter are emerging

May 17, 2022

In "Sectors"

BIDEN, IN RARE POWELL MEETING, SEEKS TO DEFLECT INFLATION BLAME

President Joe Biden used a rare meeting with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
to declare that he’s respecting the central bank’s independence - while
simultaneously shifting responsibility for taming decades-high inflation ahead
of the November midterms.

May 31, 2022

In "News"

FED SAYS HIGH INFLATION, GEOPOLITICS ARE CLOUDING OUTLOOK

The U.S. economy grew at a moderate pace through mid-April, but rising prices
and geopolitical developments created uncertainty and clouded the outlook for
future growth, the Federal Reserve said.

Apr 20, 2022

In "News"

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