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HOW RECESSIONS DRIVE INNOVATION IN FASHION

When the economy slumps, fashion soars.

By Jack Riewe

August 22, 2022
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Photographs: Getty Images; Collage: Gabe Conte
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In a country where the economy seems to be hurtling toward a recession (unless
it's not), you might expect everything from housing costs to consumer behavior
to be affected. And you might imagine that, in times of relative privation,
spending time and attention and money on fashion would be one of the first
expenses to be cut. But based on years of research on financial trends and
spending habits, there’s a lot of evidence that suggests the most striking
fashion trends are born from economic downturns.

In 1982, fashion writer John Duka outlined the way consumer habits changed
during the economic recession of the early 1980s. The similarities to the
current moment seem clear: unemployment hovered above 10 percent and oil prices
soared, while real estate prices and retail sales plunged. Although we’ve seen
an increase in retail spending in 2021 as consumers started revenge spending,
we’re beginning to see retail sales drop. When retail spending slows down, it
has a serious knock-on effect: companies can’t afford to produce, distribute,
and employ workers. Those workers, in turn, wind up with less money in their
pockets—and, to put a 2022 spin on it, wind up having to decide between paying
rent or copping a new JJJJound drop.

But what’s true of retail spending broadly isn’t necessarily true in the world
of fashion. Historically, upper-class buyers of high-end fashion don’t change
their spending habits much, or even cool it on flaunting wealth during
recessions. As Duka put it in 1982, “Retailers say those customers who can
afford such expensive merchandise, although they too have become more selective,
are still little affected by the vicissitudes of the economy.” On the other
hand, buyers who shop less expensive designers usually halt spending—and
restrict their purchases to either high-quality items to replace lost or damaged
pieces or “exciting” pieces.



Some things don’t change: this “newness” is still a specific challenge to
fashion designers today as we head into a recession. “[Designers] have to get
consumers excited to buy, they have to present newness—a vibe shift—as the kids
say,” says Allyson Rees, Senior Strategist at WGSN Insight.



Larger economic forces can shape these vibe shifts. As consumers adjust their
personal style due to inflation or reduced materials, we see a pattern of new
designs emerge.



In economically depressed post-WWII France, for example, Christian Dior released
the “New Look,” featuring a cinched waist and wide shoulders—a new take on
femininity. “After a period of fabric rationing, his designs used ample
materials (like the Chérie dress, incorporating 80 yards of faille) which felt
like a luxury,” says Veroniqué Hyland, Fashion Features Director at Elle and
author of Dress Code. “Creating a new ‘It’ silhouette or item is also a way for
the industry to spur people to buy new things, as opposed to being content with
last season’s wardrobe.”



More recent recessions have brought their own novel forms of dressing. The 1980s
brought bold neon colors, abstract prints, and the emergence of hip hop and punk
fashion, while indie sleaze emerged in the years following the economic crisis
of 2008. “When times are drab, maximalism seems to be the standard response,”
said Hyland.

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So what about this recession?

First, we have to look at the trends leading up to now. You could lump the Covid
recession and the theoretically approaching 2022 recession into one long
stretch. During this three-year pandemic period, our values as consumers have
changed. Fashion designers that have recognized customers’ interest in
sustainability and engagement with social political issues—and managed to render
them into tangible products and narratives—have found success.

“What’s interesting now is that designers have to square offering newness with
sustainability, so they need to present narratives around mixing and matching,
like ‘buy this new piece, but wear it with this thing you got from last season
or two seasons ago,’ said Rees. “Or they look into their archive and create
pieces with deadstock fabric, that type of thing. There needs to be a strong
circular and sustainability narrative, combined with newness.”

One differentiator of this recession is the rise of new ways to shop. On top of
that, designers will need to compete with platforms that can appeal to these
customer values at scale. The growing clothing resale app, Depop, made over $70
million in revenue in 2020, and is changing the ways we can browse cheaper
alternatives while learning what’s trending in fashion. Platforms like Depop
also compete with brands when a large-scale release happens. Depop reported a
62.7% increase in searches for “Yeezy” between mid-July 2021 and the first week
of August 2021, timed with the Yeezy, Gap collaboration launch, suggesting that
consumers care less about fresh-from-the-box drops and are willing to search for
cheaper secondhand alternatives.

“Thredup reports that the resale market will grow 127% by 2026, driven by
inflation, sustainability concerns and generational shopping shifts. It’s
essential that brands, no matter the market or price point, invent in a resale
ecosystem, because it’s only becoming more normalized and more mainstream,” said
Rees.

So: the brands that will thrive in a possible coming recession will likely be
ones that manage to balance their customers’ long-held desire for novelty with
their newer interest in of-the-moment techniques and beliefs. The newly
relaunched J.Crew, under the direction of Brendon Babenzien, seems like it might
fit the bill: Babenzien, long interested in merging nostalgia with contemporary
environmental and social concerns, seems to be designing new-feeling pieces with
a nod to the vintage-minded look consumers are hungry for.

Babenzien, of course, cut his teeth at Supreme, which is undergoing its own
reinvention. Newly installed creative director Tremaine Emory knows how to nail
maximalism—and is a designer deeply in tune with the political and social
climate. While Gucci buyers will still buy Gucci, mid-luxury brands who are
value driven are prime candidates to drive fashion into new realms.



As in the 1980s and aughts, it seems safe to assume that the economy of the near
future will shape its fashion. Like the late avant-garde fashion designer Issey
Miyake said, “Design stems from reflecting on and challenging the times we live
in.”




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