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Research article
First published online December 9, 2023

WHERE THERE’S A WILL, THERE’S A WAY: BORDER WALLS AND REFUGEES

Nazli Avdan, Andrew S Rosenberg andrewrosenberg@ufl.edu, and Christopher F
GelpiView all authors and affiliations
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https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231200918
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ABSTRACT

Over the last decade, there has been a notable surge in the movement of refugees
across international borders, posing significant challenges for the
international community. In response, various policy measures have been
implemented, including the construction of border walls, with the aim of
impeding refugee influx. However, scholars have expressed doubts regarding the
effectiveness of these fortifications, suggesting that walls merely redirect
migrants to alternative routes, discourage return migration, or alter migrants’
cost–benefit calculations. Despite these concerns, there has been a lack of
rigorous testing to support or refute these claims beyond case-specific
evidence. This article addresses this research gap by thoroughly examining the
arguments surrounding the impact of border fencing on refugee flows. We conduct
a systematic, cross-national test of these arguments with a two-way
fixed-effects estimator, an equivalence test, and a recently developed matching
estimator designed for use on time-series cross-sectional data. Our results
strongly support those who are skeptical of the impact of walls. We consistently
demonstrate either that border fencing has not had any causal impact on refugee
flows between 1970 and 2017 or that the statistical state-of-the-art is
incapable of discerning that true effect. In either scenario, the evidence
suggests that border fences fail to deliver the anticipated outcomes. These
findings hold significant implications as violence-driven refugee flows persist,
underscoring that while walls may serve as politically attractive tools for
populist leaders, their actual deterrent effects are highly questionable at
best.

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BIOGRAPHIES

NAZLI AVDAN, PhD in Political Science (Duke University, 2011); Associate
Professor of Political Science and Director of Graduate Studies, University of
Kansas (2013– ); current interests include migration and border policies, the
migration–security nexus, terrorism and terrorist groups, human trafficking and
organized crime; most recent book, Visas and Walls (University of Pennsylvania
Press, 2019).
ANDREW S ROSENBERG, PhD in Political Science (Ohio State University, 2019);
Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Florida (2019– );
current interests include race and racism in the liberal international order,
the politics of migration and borders, and global inequality; most recent book,
Undesirable Immigrants: Why Racism Persists in International Migration
(Princeton University Press, 2022).
CHRISTOPHER GELPI, PhD in Political Science (University of Michigan, 1994);
Professor of Political Science at Ohio State University (2013– ) and Senior
Faculty Fellow at the Mershon Center for International Security Studies (2023–
); current research interests include the formation of public attitudes toward
violence and military conflict and the impact of uncertainty on the evaluation
of threats; most recent book, Paying the Human Costs of War (co-authored with
Peter Feaver and Jason Reifler, Princeton University Press, 2009).

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Article first published online: December 9, 2023

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1. borders
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NAZLI AVDAN

University of Kansas
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ANDREW S ROSENBERG

University of Florida
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CHRISTOPHER F GELPI

Ohio State University
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andrewrosenberg@ufl.edu

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