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CITI, ICICI BANK LOWER INDIA'S GROWTH PROJECTIONS ON VIRUS SURGE

Economists, including those at Citigroup, India Ratings & Research, and ICICI
Bank, have lowered their gross domestic product (GDP) estimates after official
data on Friday showed Asia’s third-largest economy will likely expand by 9.2% in
the fiscal year to March -- a pace that’s slower than the 9.5% previously
expected by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), as well as the International
Monetary Fund (IMF).

 * Bloomberg
 * January 10, 2022, 14:58 IST

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NEW DELHI: A sharp rise in coronavirus cases in India is seen hurting the
economy’s growth prospects, albeit milder than during the previous waves.


Economists, including those at Citigroup, India Ratings & Research, and ICICI
Bank, have lowered their gross domestic product (GDP) estimates after official
data on Friday showed Asia’s third-largest economy will likely expand by 9.2% in
the fiscal year to March -- a pace that’s slower than the 9.5% previously
expected by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), as well as the International
Monetary Fund (IMF).
While the economic impact of the omicron outbreak in the current quarter could
be lower than previous waves, activity in the last three months was weak, Citi
economists Samiran Chakraborty and Baqar M Zaidi wrote in a research report
January 9.


They lowered their forecast for the current fiscal by 80 basis points to 9%, and
pegged next year’s expansion at 8.3%, from 8.7% earlier.



The daily new cases of coronavirus in India have gone up from about 6,500 two
weeks ago to more than 170,000 now -- the sharpest rise since the start of the
pandemic about two years ago.

The result has been a return of lockdowns in several parts of the country.

“There are reasons to be hopeful of a less-disruptive Covid wave,” Chakraborty
and Zaidi wrote. “These include lower hospitalization rates, shorter Covid wave
cycle period, higher vaccination coverage, and weakening link between Covid and
activity.”

Others at the BofA Securities and Deutsche Bank AG have retained their
projections for now, while flagging downside risks to India’s world-beating
growth.

“Some negative impact on activity is probable, but the rebound can also be
relatively quick,” economists led by Aastha Gudwani at BofA wrote in a report
January 10. Downside risks are growing, but it’s too early to quantify, they
said.

But there is a broad consensus that the impact of this wave will be mild.

An impact is expected in the current quarter, Radhika Rao of DBS Bank Ltd. said
in an interview to Bloomberg Television Monday. But “the impact of subsequent
waves has been shallower,” she said.



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AXIS BANK CLOSING IN ON CITI INDIA'S CONSUMER BUSINESS: SOURCES

Wall Street giant Citi said last year that it would exit its consumer franchises
in 13 markets, including India, as it refocuses on its more lucrative
institutional and wealth management businesses. Its Indian consumer banking
business comprises credit cards, home loans and retail banking.

 * Reuters

Click Here to Read This Story
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Axis Bank has emerged as the frontrunner to buy Citi's consumer business in
India, which is being valued at around $1.5 billion in a planned deal that's
likely to happen this month, according to two sources with direct knowledge of
the matter.


Another Indian lender, Kotak Mahindra Bank is still in the race but has
submitted a lower bid than Axis Bank so ranks second in Citi's order of
preference, the sources told Reuters.

Citi India, Axis Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank did not immediately respond to
requests for comment.



Wall Street giant Citi said last year that it would exit its consumer franchises
in 13 markets, including India, as it refocuses on its more lucrative
institutional and wealth management businesses. Its Indian consumer banking
business comprises credit cards, home loans and retail banking.

Acquiring the assets would strengthen the high-end credit card and mortgage
businesses of Axis Bank, India's third largest private lender, analysts at ICICI
Direct said in a note.

"The acquisition of Citi's India retail business would further help Axis Bank to
expand their reach and create more opportunities," they added.

Citi has been in India for decades and was among the first bank to introduce
Indians to credit cards in 1987.

It had a portfolio of 2.57 million credit cards in the country as of November,
according to the Indian central bank RBI, while Axis Bank's card portfolio
exceeded 7.9 million. Even though Axis has more cards, Citi reported higher
spend per card.

Citi's total retail loan book in India stood at Rs 21,600 crore ($2.91 billion)
for 2021, Systematix Institutional Equities said in a report last month.


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SBI WITHDRAWS FINANCIAL SCHEME FOR COVID-INFECTED EMPLOYEES

The bank said that the special scheme of offering Rs 20000 to every employee who
is tested Covid positive has been subsumed with the bank's existing medical
scheme with effect from January 1.

 * Atmadip Ray
 * ET Bureau

Click Here to Read This Story
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Even as the number of Covid cases has risen sharply in the beginning of the
year, State Bank of India has withdrawn its "special support scheme” for
covid-infected employees earlier than the deadline, in a reflection of the
confidence that authorities now have in handling the third wave of the pandemic.



The bank said that the special scheme of offering Rs 20000 to every employee who
is tested Covid positive has been subsumed with the bank's existing medical
scheme with effect from January 1.



The facility has been discontinued three months before its extended deadline.

In October last year, the bank had extended the validity of the scheme up to
March 31, 2022.

This has made a section of the employees, especially the frontline workers,
unhappy.

"The number of cases is rising. A huge number of SBI staffers got infected
during the third wave. The ad-hoc nature of the decision has not gone well with
the frontline bank employees," one of them said.

"The facility for claim under “Special Support Scheme 2020” will be sunset," the
bank said in an internal communication on January 13.

While Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata have seen a plateauing trend in the number of
Covid positive cases, local governments anticipate seeing the peak of daily
cases in the third or fourth week of January.

The bank has justified the move saying that the third wave is unlike the
previous waves as the majority of employees are vaccinated and availability of
medical facilities such as dedicated Covid beds in hospitals and oxygen supplies
has improved.

"Our bank is putting every effort to support affected staff for medical
emergencies, arranging beds with special tie-ups with hospitals/hotels, special
leave to recover and rehabilitate," it said in the note.



The country's largest lender is also providing full reimbursement of medical
expenses to employees and their family as well as reimbursement for the cost of
vaccination.

"Medical claims for treatment of Covid 19 related expenses will be claimed in
the usual manner as laid down in the Staff Medical Reimbursement Schemes," it
said.

The scheme related to cash compensation of Rs 20 lakh for all permanent SBI
employees in the event of death or disability due to Covid-19, however, remains
valid up to March 31, this year.


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HDFC BANK DISAPPOINTS ON MARGINS, FEE INCOME GROWTH -ANALYSTS

HDFC Bank disappoints on margins, fee income growth -analysts

 * Reuters

Click Here to Read This Story
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By Chris Thomas

BENGALURU - Shares of India's top private-sector lender HDFC Bank fell on
Monday, even as it reported an in-line profit and better asset quality for the
third quarter, as analysts flagged its unimproved margins and lower fees from
its payments business.


HDFC Bank, the first Indian lender to post December-quarter earnings, over the
weekend reported a record profit, and clocked record card issuances after the
central bank removed curbs on the bank issuing new credit cards last year.



However, a decline in payment and credit card-related fees from a year ago - as
the bank gave fee waivers as an incentive - was a new niggle for the lender to
contend with, said YES Securities' analyst Shivaji Thapliyal.

Net interest margin, a key measure of profitability for banks, was unchanged at
4.1% from the previous quarter, as growth in its retail loan book - at 13.3%
year-on-year - lagged overall loan growth of 16.5%.

"Retail credit growth remains sub-optimal, with its share at 47%, down from
53%-54% two years ago, weighing partly on margins," Emkay Global analyst Anand
Dama said in a note, adding that slow car sales were impacting vehicle
financing.

Growth in advances was led by commercial and rural banking loans, which grew
29.4%.

While analysts expect a recent surge in COVID-19 cases and related restrictions
to impact lending in the final quarter, HDFC Bank said it was confident of
navigating through the third wave.

Lower bad loan provisions pushed net profit for the three months to Dec. 31 up
18.1% to 103.42 billion rupees ($1.39 billion), beating analysts' estimates for
a profit of 100.89 billion rupees, according to Refinitiv data.

The 1.4% drop in its shares on Monday undercut gains of 4.4% recorded so far
this year. The stock rose 3% in 2021, underperforming a 13.5% rise in the Nifty
Bank index.




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ACCOUNT AGGREGATORS LINK UP AROUND 83,000 BANK ACCOUNTS IN 4 MONTHS

The network has fulfilled around 67,000 consents so far, according to data by
Sahamati, a self-organised collective for the AA framework.

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The Account Aggregator (AA) framework has linked up around 83,000 bank accounts
in four months of its launch.



The network has fulfilled around 67,000 consents so far, according to data by
Sahamati, a self-organised collective for the AA framework.



The Account Aggregator system was introduced last year to help individuals and
small businesses in procuring loans from banks without any hassle by digitally
sharing financial data across institutions.

Account Aggregators (AA) are entities that enable financial data sharing from
Financial Information Providers (FIPs) to Financial Information Users (FIUs),
based on the consent from the customers.

The network

The AA network allows sharing of transaction data or bank statements from
savings/deposit/current accounts in an encrypted format by the sender and can be
decrypted only by the recipient.

AA acts as an intermediary and helps connect the customer to multiple Financial
Information Providers (FIPs) through standardised API (Application Programming
Interfaces).

Some of the account aggregators that have received approval from the RBI include
CAMSFinServ, Cookiejar Technologies Pvt Ltd, FinSec AA Solutions Pvt Ltd and
NSEL Asset Data Ltd, among others.

Through AA, a company can access tamper-proof secure data quickly and cheaply,
and fast track the loan evaluation process so that a customer can get a loan.

Gradually the AA framework will make all financial data available for sharing,
including tax data, pensions data, securities data (mutual funds and brokerage),
and insurance data will be available to consumers.



It will also expand beyond the financial sector to allow healthcare and telecom
data to be accessible to the individual via AA, it said.

The larger goal of the account aggregator is to empower customers and reduce
information asymmetry.

Big promise

Structured as NBFCs, account aggregators are set to disrupt the borrowing system
from institutionalised financial institutions that make money on having custody
of the borrower’s financial data, according to experts. With the launch of this
mechanism to make credit availability easy, the big business of packaging,
analyzing, and selling financial information would be disrupted, just as UPI
disrupted the e-wallet business.

India’s eight largest banks, including ICICI, Axis, and HDFC have started making
loans available via the account aggregator system. This has made lending faster
and cheaper.



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78% BANKERS SEE FRAUDS RISING IN 2 YEARS: SURVEY

Around 78% of bankers expect frauds to increase over the next two years because
of the current business disruption due to the pandemic.

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Mumbai: Around 78% of bankers expect frauds to increase over the next two years
because of the current business disruption due to the pandemic. The fear of
frauds is triggered by the reduction in human contact due to large-scale remote
working and an increase in customers using non-banking channels for
transactions.

According to the Indian Banking Fraud Survey released by Deloitte, the most
common concern for bankers is loan fraud (24%) followed by frauds in internet &
mobile banking (14%). Respondents cited limited monitoring of assets after
disbursement (38%), the economic slowdown (24%) and insufficient due diligence
prior to disbursement (21%) as the top three factors leading to higher problem
loans. These suggest that banks may need to overhaul their due diligence and
monitoring frameworks.

“The number of fraud incidents encountered by banks over the last two years
appears to have increased, compared with the findings of our previous survey.
Around 53% of respondents indicated that they have faced more than 100 fraud
incidents in retail banking (over the last two years) — a 29% increase since the
previous edition,” the report said.



According to the report, bankers said they have managed to detect fraud largely
during routine audit and reconciliation followed by proactive measures through
internal automated data analysis or transaction monitoring software.



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BANKS’ E-BIZ AMBITIONS SET TO FACE TALENT CRUNCH

Banks are set to face a major challenge in finding talent to meet their digital
ambitions. While banks have the resources to invest in technology and are
putting more money in digital than branches, they are finding it difficult to
hire the right people.

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MUMBAI: Banks are set to face a major challenge in finding talent to meet their
digital ambitions. While banks have the resources to invest in technology and
are putting more money in digital than branches, they are finding it difficult
to hire the right people.

According to Sonali Kulkarni, Accenture’s lead for financial services in India,
banks have emerged stronger with better liquidity and bad loans under control.
They have also learnt to deal with uncertainty and operate with staff working
from home. But they now face change at an unprecedented velocity — whether it is
technology, customer behaviour and expectation or fintechs unbundling their
value chain.

“The demand in the market today is for the right talent, whether it’s for
business, technology or some of the niche skills around AI or analytics. How do
banks attract the best talent given that there are more than enough fintechs
competing for them and banks are not seen as a home for these skills?” said
Kulkarni.



While some banks have chosen to outsource, they would still need some technical
skills to understand which way these technologies are going and manage the
changes. “A lot of banks have recently made public statements around wanting to
be a technology company in the business of financial services. Given that focus
and ambition, it can’t be just left to consultants,” said Kulkarni.

Besides hiring talent in technology, banks will need to reskill existing
employees to enable them to have the right conversations with customers, either
around selling or resolving some of the more complex queries.

The interim alternative for banks is to enter into collaborations with fintechs
and leverage their capabilities. Moving to cloud-based architecture will also
address some issues around scalability or infrastructure. “But I don’t think
that will necessarily be a silver bullet,” said Kulkarni.

Besides reskilling, a cultural change is required to embrace the new wave of
disruption, improving the technology quotient of different segments of employees
and moving to a more data-driven culture. “You may want to tie up or do
collaborations with fintechs in the shorter term. But on a longer-term basis,
lending is a core business. So, banks have to upgrade their lending systems and
make them nimble so that they can do the same thing on their own as well.”



According to Kulkarni, the other disruptive trends that 2022 will see includes
the account aggregator model being operationalised. Also, the introduction of a
data protection law would require banks to decide how they use external data.
“The use cases for API technology have just exploded right across and not just
in the retail or the payments but also wholesale, commercial and small and
medium enterprises,” she said.



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BANKS WANT TAX SOPS FOR 3-YEAR FDS

Ahead of the Budget, the Indian Banks' Association (IBA) has made a fresh pitch
for reducing the lock-in period for fixed deposits (FDs) to be eligible for tax
breaks from the current five years to three so that they are able to compete
more favourably with other products.

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NEW DELHI: Ahead of the Budget, the Indian Banks' Association (IBA) has made a
fresh pitch for reducing the lock-in period for fixed deposits (FDs) to be
eligible for tax breaks from the current five years to three so that they are
able to compete more favourably with other products.

"As compared to other financial products (such as ELSS) available in the market,
the tax-saver fixed deposit (FD) has become less attractive and if the lock-in
period is reduced this would make the product more attractive and provide more
funds to the banks," the IBA has said in a proposal submitted to the finance
ministry.

While banks have slashed deposit rates to pass on the benefits of a lower rate
regime to borrowers, small savings products such as public provident fund (PPF)
have not seen a reduction in rates for several quarters, making them more
attractive from a returns point of view. As it is, the stock market boom of the
last few years has prompted several investors to shun bank deposits and move to
mutual funds or direct investment in shares. As a result, apart from some senior
citizens in the higher income brackets, most other depositors are shunning
five-year FDs. In fact, bank FDs over five years were made eligible for tax
breaks under section 80C much later as part of the annual benefit of Rs 1.5 lakh
available for specified investments. Even with the benefit, it is less
attractive than, say, PPF as the interest earned on these FDs is taxable.



IBA has also sought special rebate or additional depreciation for spending on
financial inclusion and digital banking. "By making expenditure on IT, banks
give benefits to the masses, that is, ease of doing business, digital banking,
etc. Therefore, some special incentives in the form of special tax rebate/
deduction or additional depreciation (say, 125%) over and above actual capital
expenditure made on such activities may be provided," it has proposed.

Besides, IBA has taken up cudgels on behalf of foreign banks and pitched for a
tax parity between their branches in India and domestic banks. Indian banks have
opted for a lower rate option of 22% (plus surcharge and cess), which is not
available to branches of foreign banks in India, which are taxed at 40% (plus
surcharge and cess). Most foreign banks have opted not to incorporate local
subsidiaries and have chosen to operate via the branch route, despite repeated
prodding by the government and the RBI.



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MOST RECAST LOANS ON TRACK: HDFC BANK

HDFC Bank, which reported a record net profit of Rs 10,342 crore for the quarter
ended December 2021, has said that most borrowers who availed Covid
restructuring are likely to repay their loans in time, while 10-20 basis points
(100bps = 1 percentage point) of their loans could slip into default.

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MUMBAI: HDFC Bank, which reported a record net profit of Rs 10,342 crore for the
quarter ended December 2021, has said that most borrowers who availed Covid
restructuring are likely to repay their loans in time, while 10-20 basis points
(100bps = 1 percentage point) of their loans could slip into default.

Addressing the analysts’ call after the results on Saturday, chief financial
officer Srinivasan Vaidyanathan said that the bank’s restructured loans under
the RBI framework for Covid, as of December-end, stand at 137bps of its loans.
“This is at the borrower level and includes 28bps of other facilities of the
same borrower, which were not restructured but included here. Of the
restructured accounts, 40% are secured with good collateral. Approximately,
two-thirds are salaried customers and about 40% have a Cibil score of above
700,” said Vaidyanathan.

According to published numbers, the bank has restructured Rs 14,564 crore of
personal loans, Rs 1,566 crore of business loans and Rs 1,889 crore of loans to
small businesses under the RBI Resolution Framework - 2, dated May 5, 2021.
“Covid restructuring has been an enabler for our customers to tide over the
uncertainty in the last few quarters. The initial indicators suggest that most
of these customers are now in a position to resume their payment with minimal
impact on the overall quality of advances,” he added.



Vaidyanathan said the impact of restructuring on the bank’s gross non-performing
asset (NPA) numbers would be 10-20bps in any given quarter. The bank reported an
increase in profits with both loans and deposits growing at a much faster rate
than the banking system. “We have a share of more than 25% (of loans) on an
incremental basis,” said Vaidyanathan.

Emkay Research said in a report that the bank’s pool of restructured loans
moderated by Rs 2,800 crore to Rs 17,500 crore (1.4%) of loans from 1.7% of
loans in Q2FY22, of which nearly half of the reduction was attributed to the
restructured loans slipping into NPA in Q3FY22. As a prudent strategy, the bank
made an additional Rs 900-crore provisions in Q3, and now carries a contingent
plus floating buffer of Rs 10,100 crore (0.8% of loans).

The bank’s margins also got a boost with an increase in the share of low-cost
current and savings account (CASA) deposits. As against overall deposits, which
grew 13.8%, CASA deposits grew by 24.6% with savings account deposits at Rs
4,71,029 crore and current account deposits at Rs 2,10,195 crore. Time deposits
were at Rs 7,64,693 crore — an increase of 5.6% over the corresponding quarter
of the previous year, resulting in CASA deposits comprising 47.1% of total
deposits as of December 31, 2021.




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PMC BANK MERGER WITH UNITY SMALL FINANCE BANK AWAITS GOVT APPROVAL

As per the Banking Regulation Act, the draft scheme of amalgamation is required
to be placed before the government for its sanction and the Centre may sanction
the scheme without any modifications or with such modifications as it may
consider necessary.

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The proposed merger of debt-ridden Punjab and Maharashtra Cooperative Bank with
Unity Small Finance Bank (USFB) is being examined and the process of
amalgamation will start after the government approval, sources said. Various
aspects of the scheme of amalgamation have been examined, and the government
would soon send its suggestions, if any, to the RBI, sources added.

The RBI in December extended the restrictions on Punjab and Maharashtra
Cooperative (PMC) Bank for another three months till the end of March 2022, as
all necessary process on the draft scheme for the takeover was not complete.

As per the Banking Regulation Act, the draft scheme of amalgamation is required
to be placed before the government for its sanction and the Centre may sanction
the scheme without any modifications or with such modifications as it may
consider necessary.



The scheme as sanctioned by the government would come into force on such date as
they may specify, as per the Act.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had prepared a draft scheme of amalgamation and
the same was placed in the public domain on November 22 as part of seeking
suggestions and objections, if any, from members, depositors and other creditors
of PMC Bank and Delhi-based USFB. The deadline for submitting the comments was
till December 10.

In September 2019, the RBI had superseded the board of PMC Bank and placed it
under regulatory restrictions, including putting a cap on withdrawals by its
customers, after detection of certain financial irregularities, hiding and
misreporting of loans given to real estate developer HDIL.

The restrictions have been extended several times since then. The directions
were last extended in June this year and are in place till December 31.

The draft scheme of amalgamation envisages a takeover of the assets and
liabilities of PMC Bank, including deposits, by USFB, thus giving a greater
degree of protection for the depositors, the RBI had said in November last year.

It may be seen that USFB has been set up with capital of about Rs 1,100 crore as
against regulatory requirement of Rs 200 crore for setting up of a small finance
bank.



Further, the scheme notes that equity warrants of Rs 1,900 crore, to be
exercised anytime within a total period of eight years, have been issued by USFB
on November 1, 2021 to the promoters to bring further capital.

Under the scheme of arrangement, the depositors will get their full amount back
over a period of 10 years. In the initial phase, the bank will pay amount
insured under Deposit Insurance and Credit Guarantee Corporation (DICGC) of up
to Rs 5 lakh to depositors.

It is to be noted that USFB, a joint venture between Centrum Group and Bharatpe,
has commenced operations as a small finance bank with effect from November 1,
2021.

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SFBS' NII TO IMPROVE IN Q4, BUT MAY FACE HIGHER CREDIT COST

Small finance banks are set to report a substantial rise in net interest income,
but are likely to face rising credit costs due to a higher proportion of
unsecured loans.

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Small finance banks (SFBs) are set to report a rise in net interest income (NII)
in the December ended quarter on account of healthy loan growth and lower cost
of funds.

AU Small Finance Bank and Equitas SFB have reported strong growth in advances
and reduction in the cost of funds, setting the stage for better performance.





AU SFB

AU SFB has reported a strong 33% year-on-year rise in its gross advances for Q3
at Rs 40,723 crore while the lender’s average cost of funds for the reporting
quarter declined to 5.9% from 6.7% in the year-ago period. The bank’s
incremental cost of funds fell to 5.3% from 5.8% a year ago.

For the quarter ended September, AU SFB’s NII rose 34 per cent year on year to
Rs 753 crore.

Its total deposits rose 49% on year to Rs 44,278 crore as of December-end, while
the low-cost current account and savings account (CASA) ratio jumped to 39% as
on December 31 from 22% last year.

A steady incremental cost of funds at 5.3% suggests that incremental deposits
are not coming at high cost for AU Small Finance Bank, ICICI Securities said,
adding that the only monitorable will be when and how much cost of fund benefit
AU SFB will derive from improving deposit profile from current levels.

“Strong AUM (assets under management) growth coupled with 20 bps QoQ
(quarter-on-quarter) decline in cost of funds suggests that NII growth would
continue to remain robust. NII growth was 4% QoQ in Q2FY22 and we expect NII
growth to improve further to 7% QoQ in Q3FY22 (October-December),” brokerage
ICICI Securities said in a pre-earnings report.



Equitas SFB

Equitas SFB has posted a 13% on-year rise in its gross advances at Rs 19,642
crore while its deposit base grew at a similar pace of 13% on a yearly basis to
Rs 17,884 crore.

ICICI Securities sees higher AUM growth and stable margins driving Equitas SFB’s
NII in Q4. Both Ujjivan SFB and Suryoday SFB have reported a rise of over 20% in
their gross advances.

“Lower asset yield [of Ujjivan SFB] due to preference towards secured assets
would be partially offset by improving cost of funds (fell 110 bps YoY).
Overall, we expect margins to remain flat QoQ and NII to largely mirror AUM
growth of 5% QoQ,” ICICI Securities said.

Credit cost

However, SFBs will continue seeing elevated credit costs in the current fiscal
(2021-22), leading to subdued profitability, according to ICRA. The rating
agency said the overall risk profile of SFBs’ portfolio remains high due to a
higher proportion of unsecured loans despite such lenders entering retail asset
classes such as vehicle loans, business loans, loan against property and housing
finance over the last few years.

According to ICRA’s estimate, SFBs’ asset quality deteriorated, with reported
gross non-performing assets (GNPAs) being 6.4% at the end of September, higher
than 5% at the end of March. The gradual ramp-up in the collection efficiency of
SFBs provides comfort, however, the performance of the restructured portfolio
remains monitorable, it said.

On an overall basis, ICRA expects some reduction in GNPAs in H2FY22
(October-March). However, the reported GNPA as on March end is expected to be
higher by 70-80 basis points compared to the level as on March 31, 2021.



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