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 * “UKRAINE AT A CROSSROADS: ESCALATION, DIPLOMACY, AND THE SHIFTING GLOBAL
   STANCE”
   
   In recent days, both the Biden administration and Russia have made impactful
   decisions regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine. These moves come as
   speculation builds over Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House,
   with Biden altering his strategies and Moscow increasing its aggressive
   posturing.
   
   The U.S. has now permitted Ukraine to utilize long-range ATACMS missiles to
   target Russian territory and committed to supplying anti-personnel landmines.
   This shift, analysts believe, was driven by the deployment of thousands of
   North Korean troops to support Russia—an escalation Washington views as a
   game-changer.
   
   Meanwhile, President Vladimir Putin has escalated the stakes by easing
   restrictions on the use of nuclear weapons. According to Russian sources,
   these changes signal a refusal to accept defeat, adding to the pressure on
   Ukraine and its Western allies. Some analysts argue this is less about
   operational readiness and more about intimidating the West and dissuading
   further intervention.
   
   Earlier this week, Russia launched its largest aerial assault on Ukraine in
   months, prompting fears of another wave of attacks. Western embassies
   temporarily shut their doors as tensions rose. Kyiv was spared the brunt of
   the assault, but the timing appears deliberate, coinciding with a potential
   shift in U.S. leadership.
   
   Experts like Mykhaylo Samus believe Russia’s goal is to bolster its
   negotiating position ahead of any talks led by Trump. Moscow seems to be
   preparing for a diplomatic scenario where Ukraine’s President Volodymyr
   Zelensky faces pressure to compromise. However, skepticism remains about
   Putin’s willingness to make meaningful concessions, with his ultimate goal
   perceived as subjugating Ukraine entirely.
   
   Ukraine recently marked 1,000 days since Russia’s full-scale invasion, a grim
   milestone amid relentless Russian efforts to seize key eastern territories.
   The mood in Moscow appears confident, with many officials claiming eventual
   victory is inevitable. Tatiana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia
   Center suggests that Putin will likely adjust his strategy if Trump assumes
   power, potentially adopting a more flexible approach to avoid jeopardizing a
   favorable deal.
   
   Putin’s revised nuclear doctrine allows strikes against non-nuclear states
   allied with nuclear powers or in response to large-scale air attacks.
   Observers view this as another warning to Western nations. While Putin is
   unlikely to aim for global conflict, he intends to heighten fears among
   Western leaders to deter further support for Ukraine.
   
   On the Ukrainian side, President Zelensky has maintained a firm stance.
   Speaking in a U.S. interview, he warned that significant cuts to military aid
   could jeopardize Ukraine’s defense efforts, though he vowed his nation would
   continue to fight regardless. His newly presented 10-point “resilience plan”
   underlines Ukraine’s refusal to abandon territories like Crimea or accept
   agreements seen as betrayals.
   
   Ahead of possible negotiations, Ukrainian experts emphasize the need to
   prevent Russian advances in the east. Mykola Bielieskov of the National
   Institute for Strategic Studies highlights the importance of tools like
   ATACMS and landmines in countering Russian momentum. Without such measures,
   Moscow could dictate unfavorable terms.
   
   Meanwhile, skepticism persists about Trump’s capacity to broker peace. Many
   Ukrainians fear that any agreement leaving Ukraine in a weakened position
   could lead to political unrest and instability. According to Jade McGlynn
   from King’s College London, Europe must take a larger role in supporting
   Ukraine, as current contributions from the Baltics, Scandinavia, and Poland
   alone are insufficient.
   
   Ultimately, the future remains uncertain. Putin’s long-term plans, potential
   shifts in U.S. leadership, and Ukraine’s resilience will all shape the
   trajectory of this conflict. However, as one Ukrainian leader remarked,
   “Ukraine will wait out anyone in Moscow—it is here to stay.”
   
   
   
   November 20, 2024


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