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Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Home Page
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NWS All NOAA
Hazard Feb 16Feb 17Feb 18 Excessive Rainfall MarginalSlightNo Area Heavy Snow (≥
4”)HighHighModerate Ice (≥ 0.25”)SlightSlightNo Area
WPC's Medium Range Hazards Forecast
Winter Storm Severity Index
* Overview
* Surface Analysis
* Fronts
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* Winter Wx
* Day 3–7
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National Forecast Chart
Valid Wed Feb 16, 2022
Valid Thu Feb 17, 2022
Valid Fri Feb 18, 2022
* Day 1
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* Day 3
Image Format:
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Interactive Map
» Interactive National Forecast Chart
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WPC Top Stories:
What are your chances for snow? View WPC's Winter Weather forecasts
View the Winter Storm Severity Index to see potential impacts from winter
weather
Looking for data from WPC products in a GIS format?
Check out the WPC interactive virtual tour!
North American Surface Analysis Legacy Page:
Analyzed at 12Z Tue Feb 15, 2022
Analyzed at 15Z Tue Feb 15, 2022
Analyzed at 18Z Tue Feb 15, 2022
Analyzed at 21Z Tue Feb 15, 2022
Analyzed at 00Z Wed Feb 16, 2022
Analyzed at 03Z Wed Feb 16, 2022
Analyzed at 06Z Wed Feb 16, 2022
Analyzed at 09Z Wed Feb 16, 2022
Analyzed at 12Z Wed Feb 16, 2022
* -24 hr
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Surface Fronts and Sea-Level Pressures Legacy Page:
Analyzed 12Z Wed Feb 16, 2022
Valid 18Z Wed Feb 16, 2022
Valid 00Z Thu Feb 17, 2022
Valid 06Z Thu Feb 17, 2022
Valid 12Z Thu Feb 17, 2022
Valid 00Z Fri Feb 18, 2022
Valid 12Z Fri Feb 18, 2022
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 19, 2022
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 20, 2022
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 21, 2022
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 22, 2022
Valid 12Z Wed Feb 23, 2022
* 12ZWed
* 18ZWed
* 00ZThu
* 06ZThu
* 12ZThu
* 00ZFri
* 12ZFri
* 12ZSat
* 12ZSun
* 12ZMon
* 12ZTue
* 12ZWed
+ Short Range Forecast Discussion (Day ½-2½)
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
312 AM EST Wed Feb 16 2022
Valid 12Z Wed Feb 16 2022 - 12Z Fri Feb 18 2022
...Heavy snow possible across parts of the central High Plains today...
...Potential for a swath of disruptive snow and freezing rain to extend
from northern Oklahoma to southern Michigan on Thursday...
...Severe thunderstorms possible from the Southern Plains to the Mid-South
beginning Wednesday night, while heavy rain may lead to isolated flash
flooding throughout the Mid-Mississippi/Ohio Valleys and Southern
Appalachians...
...Critical fire weather conditions forecast to continue across portions
of the southern High Plains today...
Over the next few days, a deep upper-level trough and its associated cold
front will continue to push south and east through the southwestern and
central U.S., producing a variety of hazardous weather types. In the near
term, this includes the potential for heavy snow over parts of the central
High Plains and strong winds across portions of New Mexico and West Texas.
Scattered snow showers are expected to slowly sink southward this morning
from the Northern Rockies and eventually become more widespread over the
central High Plains by tonight as the upper-level trough ejects into the
Southern Plains. Locally heavy snow, with amounts up to 8 inches, may
impact areas along the Front Range of Colorado. This includes Denver, CO
and surrounding regions, where Winter Storm Watches have been issued.
Minor accumulating snow is also anticipated across the Central Rockies
during this time frame. Farther south, strong southwesterly winds are
forecast ahead of an approaching cold front from southern New Mexico to
West Texas today. Maximum wind gusts may approach 75 mph here, which will
make travel difficult for high profile vehicles. High Wind Warnings and
Wind Advisories have been issued to highlight the potential hazard.
Additionally, the combination of gusty winds and low relative humidity
will lead to critical fire weather conditions throughout the southern High
Plains. Well above average temperatures will also surge ahead of the cold
front and into the eastern half of the Nation. This will also allow for
plenty of atmospheric moisture content to flow out of the Gulf of Mexico
and set the stage for widespread shower and thunderstorm activity
beginning Wednesday night.
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the Texas Panhandle
and Oklahoma by Thursday morning before tracking northeastward along an
attached cold front as it advances across the Mississippi Valley. As the
advancing cold front clashes with the warm and moist airmass Wednesday
night, a line of thunderstorms may develop across North Texas and
Oklahoma. The potential exists for storms to produce damaging wind gusts,
large hail, and isolated tornadoes in this region. The Storm Prediction
Center has maintained a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms
Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for North Texas and central to
eastern Oklahoma. The severe weather threat is expected to shift eastward
along the cold front and into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley,
Mid-South and Southeast on Thursday. With plenty of moisture to work with,
the threat of heavy rain also exists from parts of the Southern Plains to
the Appalachians through Thursday night. There are expected to be two main
modes of heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding; the first is
associated with intense rainfall rates related to thunderstorms and the
second is related to widespread heavy rain along the strong cold front.
Both are expected to lead to widely scattered flooding concerns.
Thunderstorm-induced heavy rain is most likely across the southernmost
affected areas, particularly from the southern Plains to the southern
Appalachians between Wednesday night and Thursday night. Farther north,
flood watches are in effect from portions of southern Missouri, central
Illinois, across much of Indiana into the eastern Great Lakes, where the
combination of longer duration heavy rain along with melting snow is
expected to cause flooding concerns. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall is in effect from southern Illinois to western New
York, as well as over parts of the Southern Appalachians on Thursday.
These areas are expected to have the greatest chances for scattered
instances of flash flooding.
On the cold side of the system, a swath of potentially heavy snow is
possible from northern Oklahoma to southern Michigan on Thursday, with
wintry weather also clipping the northern tip of Maine by Friday morning.
The location of the heaviest snowfall remains uncertain, but areas that do
see an extended period of heavy snow could experience snowfall rates over
2 inches per hour at times. Gusty winds will also accompany this system,
which will combine with snowfall to severely reduce visibility. A wintry
mix, including areas of sleet and freezing rain, will likely fall just to
the south of the heaviest axis of snow. Winter Storms Watches are in
effect for the locations most likely to see significant snowfall or a
combination of snow and a wintry mix. This includes far northern Oklahoma,
eastern Kansas, northern-central Missouri, north-central Illinois,
northern Indiana, and southern Michigan.
Snell
Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
+ Medium Range Forecast Discussion (Day 3-7)
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
159 AM EST Wed Feb 16 2022
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 19 2022 - 12Z Wed Feb 23 2022
...Overview...
The medium range period will begin Saturday with generally quiet
weather, besides a clipper system bringing snow to the Great Lakes
region. Then as next week begins, troughing is forecast to develop
in the West and slowly track eastward along with a strong frontal
system. Precipitation chances should increase in the West with
this pattern and spread into the central U.S. once again by next
Monday through Wednesday, with the possibility of northern tier
snow and southern U.S. rain.
...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment...
Recent model guidance shows good agreement overall with the large
scale pattern even through the middle of next week, with some
typical differences in the smaller scale details. To start the
period, the surface low/clipper over the Great Lakes and
upper-level energy supporting it have good consensus among 12/18Z
models. A less certain feature during this timeframe is a compact
shortwave tracking into the West ahead of the main larger scale
trough. Overall recent models have trended stronger with this
initial energy, with increasing consensus for a closed low likely
centered just west of California on Saturday. The GFS was the
slowest model to come to this conclusion (the 12Z had its low
displaced east and the 18Z run showed an open trough), but the 00Z
GFS does show a closed low in line with other guidance. Though
there is better agreement now, considering the small scale of the
low rounding the Pacific ridge, additional shifts in the forecast
are possible.
Then there is good agreement for energy to spill into the West and
develop troughing as next week begins, while much of the central
and eastern U.S. shifts to zonal flow and then ridging. 12/18Z GFS
runs remain among the strongest, specifically with closing off a
low within the trough even by early Sunday sinking into the
Pacific Northwest, while the 12Z CMC was slightly east with its
trough axis by around Tuesday compared to consensus. The phasing
differences with potential stream separation are causing minor
model differences that could continue to be an issue with the
evolution of the troughing. The ECMWF has been more consistent and
favored among the deterministic guidance, though both the 12Z and
new 00Z runs may be a bit slow with lingering energy across the
West by Wednesday. Despite these model differences, the theme of
troughing developing in the West for the first half of the week
slowly shifting eastward as well as sending northern stream energy
across the north-central U.S. by midweek is consistent.
The WPC forecast utilized a multi-model deterministic blend of the
12/18Z guidance for the early part of the period, slightly
favoring the ECMWF and CMC. Phased in some GEFS and ECMWF ensemble
mean guidance for the latter part of the period, ending up with
about half deterministic models and half means by day 7,
mitigating the individual model eccentricities. The main
difference from the previous WPC forecast was a continued trend
northward with the axis of heaviest QPF across the Mid-South
Monday-Wednesday of next week.
...Weather Highlights/Threats...
Lingering snow is forecast on Saturday across the Great Lakes
region with the clipper system, with generally light to perhaps
locally moderate amounts. Mainly dry conditions are expected
elsewhere on Saturday other than a few showers possible in
Florida, except that precipitation will be increasing in the
Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies with the upper trough
coming in. Coastal and valley rain and mountain snow are likely
over the Pacific Northwest spreading into California, the Great
Basin, and the Rockies through the early part of next week. Snow
could also spread farther east into the northern High Plains
Sunday and into the rest of the northern tier states as the first
half of the week progresses. The confidence in the axis of
heaviest snow and snowfall amounts remains somewhat low. Farther
south, moist inflow is forecast to return to the south-central and
southeastern U.S., increasing chances for rainfall that could
become heavy over the Mid-South in particular by Monday and
Tuesday.
Temperatures over the weekend are expected to be above normal for
parts of the West into the Plains, with the largest anomalies of
highs 20+ degrees above average over South Dakota and Nebraska.
Meanwhile, cooler to near average temperatures over the eastern
third of the country Saturday will warm Sunday. As the pattern
amplifies, the south-central U.S. to the East Coast will further
warm through the first half of next week, with widespread highs
10-20F and lows 20-30F above normal. Meanwhile, a cold Arctic high
is forecast to shift into the north-central U.S., leading to well
below average temperatures initially across the northern High
Plains and spreading southward through midweek. Temperatures in
some places could be 30 or more degrees below normal, and highs in
the single digits are expected for Montana and the Dakotas Monday
and Tuesday.
Tate
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
+ Hawaii Forecast Discussion (Day 1-7)
Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
307 AM EST Wed Feb 16 2022
Valid 00Z Thu Feb 17 2022 - 00Z Thu Feb 24 2022
An upper-level low will hover atop Hawaii over the next day or so
before weakening into a trough on Thursday, but troughing will
persist across the state through early next week as another upper
low develops to the north. Meanwhile, surface troughs will linger
across the state, providing convergence. This pattern will lead to
showers and possibly thunderstorms for Hawaii as instability will
be in place. The highest moisture anomalies are likely to remain
east of the state, perhaps making their way into the Big Island,
but moisture should still be sufficient for the showers to form
over the islands. This unsettled pattern will mainly favor common
windward and mountain areas to receive the bulk of the rain and
thunderstorms, but some could spill into leeward areas too. The
highest elevations of the Big Island can expect some wintry
precipitation. Though the upper pattern should flatten somewhat, a
generally showery pattern could continue into early next week,
with an increase in moisture possible around Monday and Tuesday.
Tate
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Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Legacy Page:
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Image Options:
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» Probabilistic QPF (Day 1-3)
» Extreme Precipitation
Monitor
» View Probabilistic Precipitation Guidance (Day 1-3)
» Extreme Precipitation Monitor
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Excessive Rainfall Forecasts Legacy Page:
Valid 12Z Wed Feb 16 2022 - 12Z Thu Feb 17 2022
Valid 12Z Thu Feb 17 2022 - 12Z Fri Feb 18 2022
Valid 12Z Fri Feb 18 2022 - 12Z Sat Feb 19 2022
* Day 1
* Day 2
* Day 3
+ Forecast Discussion
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
326 AM EST Wed Feb 16 2022
Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed Feb 16 2022 - 12Z Thu Feb 17 2022
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND FAR SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES...
A threat for excessive rainfall is expected to develop during the
evening hours over the Plains as low pressure develops and
strengthens along a well defined front. The potential then
expands downstream late tonight/early Thursday morning as strong
flow transports deeper moisture towards Illinois and northern
Indiana. As mentioned on Tuesday afternoon...the antecedent
conditions there are a bit more favorable considering quantitative
precipitation estimates and NASA SPoRT-LIS 0-10 cm soil moisture
anomalies in northern Indiana exceed the 70th percentile. The
latest deterministic and probabilistic QPF shows 1 to 2 inches of
rainfall possible with only one member of the 16/00Z GEFS showing
a 3 inch contour. The threat of excessive rainfall persists
beyond the end of the period over the eastern portion of the
Marginal Risk area.
Bann
Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 AM EST Wed Feb 16 2022
Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Feb 17 2022 - 12Z Fri Feb 18 2022
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM PORTIONS OF
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S....
...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and Parts of the
Great Lakes...
Introduced a Slight Risk area extending from far southeast
Missouri northeastward into the Ohio Valley and into the eastern
Great Lakes. There was an increase in the deterministic QPF from
WPC and from the numerical guidance along this axis...which was
supported by precipitable water values around an inch over from
portions of southeast Missouri eastward to southern Indiana. At
that point...the precipitable water anomalies are greater than 2
standard deviations above climatology. By 18/00Z...the moisture
axis has shifted into the eastern portion of the Ohio Valley where
1+ inch of precipitable water values are over 3 standard
deviations above climatology...and exceed the 95th climatological
percentiles. Given the upper level support of a 130 to 150 kt
upper level jet...the increased QPF and the subtle southward shift
seemed reasonable.
The Slight Risk extended as far west as the southeast corner of
Missouri where the combined Day 1 and Day 2 QPF was high enough to
make the area more vulnerable to problems with flooding...even
though only an inch or so of rain is forecast after the Day 2
period begins. Plus there are still multiple concerns including
rain and snow transitions/frozen ground/ice jams/additional water
above pure runoff due to snow-melt across the northern periphery
of the outlook area that keep this in the realm of a hybrid
flooding concern. However...the potential for some elevated
rainfall rates given the strength of this system suggest that
Slight Risk was warranted.
...Tennessee Valley and Southeast U.S....
The overall model trend has been to decrease deterministic QPF
amounts somewhat with reduced areal coverage while focusing the
better rainfall farther north. Maintained the Slight Risk area
over the south end of the Appalachians in deference to the 850 mb
winds of 50 to 70 kts and the precipitable water values that
increase to between 1.5 and 1.8 inches in the numerical guidance.
Of course...will re-evaluate the Slight Risk area in later
outlooks if the diminished model QPF persists.
Bann
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
329 AM EST Wed Feb 16 2022
Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Feb 18 2022 - 12Z Sat Feb 19 2022
The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.
Bann
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt
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Winter Weather Forecasts Legacy Page:
Valid 12Z 02/16/2022 - 12Z 02/17/2022
Valid 12Z 02/17/2022 - 12Z 02/18/2022
Valid 12Z 02/18/2022 - 12Z 02/19/2022
Valid 12Z 02/19/2022 - 12Z 02/20/2022
Valid 12Z 02/20/2022 - 12Z 02/21/2022
Valid 12Z 02/21/2022 - 12Z 02/22/2022
Valid 12Z 02/22/2022 - 12Z 02/23/2022
* Day 1
* Day 2
* Day 3
* Day 4
* Day 5
* Day 6
* Day 7
*
Day 1-3 Image Options:
Snowfall (≥ 4”)
Snowfall (≥ 8”)
Snowfall (≥ 12”)
Freezing Rain (≥ .25”)
Composite Charts
Interactive Map (Day 1-3)
Interactive Map (Day 4-7)
Winter Storm Severity Index
Experimental Winter
Storm Outlook
Additional Products
» Interactive Winter Weather Map (Day 1-3)
» Interactive Winter Weather Map (Day 4-7)
+ Forecast Discussion (Day 1-3)
Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
326 AM EST Wed Feb 16 2022
Valid 12Z Wed Feb 16 2022 - 12Z Sat Feb 19 2022
...Rockies...
Day 1...
Potent closed upper low currently over southern California and
northern stream energy over British Columbia will phase together
later today into tonight over the Four Corners region giving way
to larger upper troughing over the southern to central Rockies.
The southern stream shortwave jet streak's left exit region is
well positioned over the central Rockies while in the northern
stream the developing jet over British Columbia favors strong
vertical ascent downwind over the central to northern Rockies. All
told, the combination of these features and modest upslope
enhancement due to the terrain and a trailing cold front will
favor locally heavy snowfall for the higher elevations today into
tonight. The latest WPC probabilities for 4 inches are high across
the taller ranges of north-central Idaho, southwest Montana,
through central Wyoming and much of the Colorado Rockies and even
as far south the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains of Arizona.
Localized amounts greater than 10 inches will be possible for the
highest peaks of the Colorado Rockies.
...South-Central Plains to Great Lakes...
Days 1-2...
The aforementioned southern stream shortwave energy ejects into
the southern Plains late tonight and opens up into a negatively
tilted trough over the Central Plains. Meanwhile, another
shortwave energy through southern Canada will help create
confluent flow over the Upper Midwest. Cyclogenesis across the
southern Plains takes place and this low quickly tracks to the
northeast, reaching the Northeast and New England by Friday
morning. Moisture ahead of this system is impressive with PW
anomalies nearing +2 sigma and the deepening low and tightening
baroclinicity will result in a narrow but intense area of
frontogenesis Thursday. This lift lies within the DGZ and this
should lead to some very intense snow rates within the deformation
band northwest of the low track where the latest HREF shows strong
signals for 2"+/hr rates. Combined with the tightening pressure
gradient, significant blowing snow will be possible. A quick
hitting but very intense snow setup across portions of Kansas
through Illinois, northwest, and southern Michigan.
Forecast spread this cycle has lessened and confidence continues
to increase for significant snow totals greater than 6 inches
along a swath from KS to MI including portions of the KC and
southern Chicago metros. The latest WPC probabilities for 6 inches
are above 60-70 percent with a slight to moderate signal for 8"
totals. Some isolated amounts over 12" will be possible, possibly
from eastern KS to northern MO where the best overlap between
duration and strong forcing exists.
To the south of the heavy snow, a stripe of freezing rain is
expected as a warm nose aloft overruns subfreezing temperatures at
the surface. The greatest signal for ice accumulations greater
than 0.10" lie across central MO toward central IL toward southern
Michigan.
...Upper Midwest to Great Lakes...
Days 2-3...
Shortwave energy quickly dropping southeast out of northwest
Canada reaches southern Manitoba by early Friday morning. This
quick moving clipper system then tracks through the Great Lakes
Friday into Friday night. Ample cold air pulled southeastward into
the region in the wake of the aforementioned storm system combined
with modest forcing for ascent within the left exit region of the
130+ kt jet should yield a few fluffy inches of snow. As the
shortwave passes, some lake effect snows are likely with the
highest amounts likely off Lake Superior and northern L.P. of
Michigan where the latest WPC probabilities for 4 inches are
slight to moderate.
Key Messages for the Feb 17-18 Winter Storm:
- A strong winter storm will impact the Central U.S. from Thursday
to early Friday, producing a variety of hazards including heavy
snow, sleet, and freezing rain.
- Heavy snow is most likely from northern Oklahoma, eastern
Kansas, and northern Missouri into north-central Illinois,
northwest Indiana, and southern Michigan. Snowfall rates are
likely to exceed 2 inches per hour at times.
- The combination of heavy snow and strong, gusty winds may lead
to severely reduced visibility and hazardous travel conditions on
Thursday and Thursday Night.
- A mixture of freezing rain, sleet, and snow is most likely just
to the south, from central Missouri and central Illinois into
northern Indiana and northern Ohio. Impacts to travel are also
possible in these areas.
Taylor
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Medium Range Forecasts Legacy Page:
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 19, 2022
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 20, 2022
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 21, 2022
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 22, 2022
Valid 12Z Wed Feb 23, 2022
* Day 3
* Day 4
* Day 5
* Day 6
* Day 7
Image Options:
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Additional Products
+ Forecast Discussion
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
159 AM EST Wed Feb 16 2022
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 19 2022 - 12Z Wed Feb 23 2022
...Overview...
The medium range period will begin Saturday with generally quiet
weather, besides a clipper system bringing snow to the Great Lakes
region. Then as next week begins, troughing is forecast to develop
in the West and slowly track eastward along with a strong frontal
system. Precipitation chances should increase in the West with
this pattern and spread into the central U.S. once again by next
Monday through Wednesday, with the possibility of northern tier
snow and southern U.S. rain.
...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment...
Recent model guidance shows good agreement overall with the large
scale pattern even through the middle of next week, with some
typical differences in the smaller scale details. To start the
period, the surface low/clipper over the Great Lakes and
upper-level energy supporting it have good consensus among 12/18Z
models. A less certain feature during this timeframe is a compact
shortwave tracking into the West ahead of the main larger scale
trough. Overall recent models have trended stronger with this
initial energy, with increasing consensus for a closed low likely
centered just west of California on Saturday. The GFS was the
slowest model to come to this conclusion (the 12Z had its low
displaced east and the 18Z run showed an open trough), but the 00Z
GFS does show a closed low in line with other guidance. Though
there is better agreement now, considering the small scale of the
low rounding the Pacific ridge, additional shifts in the forecast
are possible.
Then there is good agreement for energy to spill into the West and
develop troughing as next week begins, while much of the central
and eastern U.S. shifts to zonal flow and then ridging. 12/18Z GFS
runs remain among the strongest, specifically with closing off a
low within the trough even by early Sunday sinking into the
Pacific Northwest, while the 12Z CMC was slightly east with its
trough axis by around Tuesday compared to consensus. The phasing
differences with potential stream separation are causing minor
model differences that could continue to be an issue with the
evolution of the troughing. The ECMWF has been more consistent and
favored among the deterministic guidance, though both the 12Z and
new 00Z runs may be a bit slow with lingering energy across the
West by Wednesday. Despite these model differences, the theme of
troughing developing in the West for the first half of the week
slowly shifting eastward as well as sending northern stream energy
across the north-central U.S. by midweek is consistent.
The WPC forecast utilized a multi-model deterministic blend of the
12/18Z guidance for the early part of the period, slightly
favoring the ECMWF and CMC. Phased in some GEFS and ECMWF ensemble
mean guidance for the latter part of the period, ending up with
about half deterministic models and half means by day 7,
mitigating the individual model eccentricities. The main
difference from the previous WPC forecast was a continued trend
northward with the axis of heaviest QPF across the Mid-South
Monday-Wednesday of next week.
...Weather Highlights/Threats...
Lingering snow is forecast on Saturday across the Great Lakes
region with the clipper system, with generally light to perhaps
locally moderate amounts. Mainly dry conditions are expected
elsewhere on Saturday other than a few showers possible in
Florida, except that precipitation will be increasing in the
Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies with the upper trough
coming in. Coastal and valley rain and mountain snow are likely
over the Pacific Northwest spreading into California, the Great
Basin, and the Rockies through the early part of next week. Snow
could also spread farther east into the northern High Plains
Sunday and into the rest of the northern tier states as the first
half of the week progresses. The confidence in the axis of
heaviest snow and snowfall amounts remains somewhat low. Farther
south, moist inflow is forecast to return to the south-central and
southeastern U.S., increasing chances for rainfall that could
become heavy over the Mid-South in particular by Monday and
Tuesday.
Temperatures over the weekend are expected to be above normal for
parts of the West into the Plains, with the largest anomalies of
highs 20+ degrees above average over South Dakota and Nebraska.
Meanwhile, cooler to near average temperatures over the eastern
third of the country Saturday will warm Sunday. As the pattern
amplifies, the south-central U.S. to the East Coast will further
warm through the first half of next week, with widespread highs
10-20F and lows 20-30F above normal. Meanwhile, a cold Arctic high
is forecast to shift into the north-central U.S., leading to well
below average temperatures initially across the northern High
Plains and spreading southward through midweek. Temperatures in
some places could be 30 or more degrees below normal, and highs in
the single digits are expected for Montana and the Dakotas Monday
and Tuesday.
Tate
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
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Forecaster's Toolbox (Prototype)
Tools Generated at WPC
These tools are NOT operationally supported. Data may not update regularly due
to workstation failure and/or data unavailability.
Experimental Intense Rainfall and Flash Flood Reports
Displays flood and flash flood reports as well as intense rainfall observations
for user-selectable time ranges and customizable geographic regions. Includes
ability to download reports and associated metadata in csv format.
GEFS Probabilities
Plots of GEFS probabilistic forecast of precipitation, temperature, and
sea-level pressure exceeding various thresholds.
Local Storm Reports
Custom plots of Local Storm Reports across the Contiguous United States. Reports
include rain, snow, ice, and severe weather, as well as other significant
information from storm spotters.
Extreme Precipitation Monitor
Displays the climatological significance of precipitation forecast by WPC. The
climatological significance is represented by Average Recurrence Intervals
(ARIs) of precipitation estimates from NOAA Atlas-14 and Atlas2.
Ensemble Situational Awareness Table
An interactive situational awareness table that displays anomalies, percentiles,
and return intervals from the GEFS, NAEFS, and ECMWF Ensembles (login required
to view ECMWF data).
*Please note that there is currently an issue where only users on a NOAA network
can access this page. We are actively working to resolve this problem.
NDFD Forecast Temperature Records
Interactive display of where temperatures could approach or exceed records
within the contiguous U.S. (based on NDFD temperature forecasts)
NWS NDFD Max/Min Temperatures and Departure from Normal
Displays Days 1-7 NDFD maximum and minimum temperatures, along with their
respective departures from climatology.
Prototype Snowband Probability Forecasts
An interactive tool that depicts areas of heavy snowfall from individual members
of high-resolution short range ensemble forecasts.
Weather in Context Prototype
Displays forecast information and its climatological context to quickly alert a
forecaster when a record or neear-record breaking event is possible. This tool
is available for both CONUS and Alaska.
Prototype Specialized Excessive Rainfall Maps
Interface for specialized WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook Maps for NWS County
Warning Areas and States.
1/3/6/24-hr Changes
Change in weather parameters (temperature, dewpoint, surface pressure, etc) over
the last 1/3/6/24 hours. Data is provided from the Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis
(RTMA) or the Rapid Refresh (RAP).
Other Favorite Forecast Tools
CIPS Guidance
Analog guidance that uses an objective approach to find historical events that
are similar to the upcoming forecast.
National Blend of Models
Nationally consistent and skillful suite of calibrated forecast guidance based
on a blend of both NWS and non-NWS numerical weather prediction model data and
post-processed model guidance.
Atmospheric River Portal
A portal for atmospheric river forecasts and diagnostics from the GEFS.
GEFS Plumes
An interactive display of time series plots from GEFS ensemble members at a
point.
SPC Forecast Tools
A variety of useful tools generated at The Storm Prediction Center (SPC).
ECMWF Ensemble Mean and Spread
Output from the ECMWF 'Ensemble Prediction System' (ENS) for four parameters:
mean sea level pressure, 850 hPa temperature, 850 hPa wind speed, and 500 hPa
geopotential height.
WINTER PREPAREDNESS
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