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Market & Investments |
Estimated reading time: 5 min
September 18, 2023


MARKET COMMENTARY: MORE SEASONAL CHOPPINESS


Article By Carson
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Stocks continue to trade in a choppy range after the best seven-month start to a
year since 1997. August and September tend to see seasonal weakness, and this is
playing out once again as expected. Bullish investors may view this as
encouraging, as they would prefer to see stocks catch their breath before an
eventual move higher, which we still expect over the coming months.

 * Stocks continue to consolidate, which is perfectly normal for this time of
   year.
 * Some signs indicate stocks will break out to new highs once the consolidation
   is complete.
 * Energy prices pushed headline inflation higher in August.
 * However, core inflation shows an encouraging downtrend.
 * Disinflation continues in the used vehicle and housing categories.
 * Slowing core inflation, along with an easing labor market, likely means the
   Fed will pause rate hikes at its September meeting.

What are some clues that better times could be coming soon? Sentiment is quite
pessimistic, which could be a sign that the influx of bulls during the summer is
slowing. This is encouraging, as the market needs to shake them out. Also,
consumer discretionary stocks are outperforming consumer staples. This is
another clue the overall market will likely go higher — it’s a positive sign
when the aggressive areas of the market lead the defensive ones. Lastly, high
yield is outperforming Treasuries, another sign aggressive areas are doing
better than defensive. If a monster was under the bed, we’d expect to see high
yield doing much worse, but that hasn’t been the case.



Energy Prices are No Longer Slowing Inflation. But What’s Next?

Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 0.6% in August,
bringing its year-over-year pace to 3.7%. As the chart below shows, the primary
driver of disinflation over the past year, from a peak of 9% in June 2022 to 3%
in June 2023, was falling energy prices. But that reversed in August, with gas
prices rising 10.6%.



The drag on inflation from energy prices is declining, and in many ways this is
not surprising. The jump in gas prices is certainly not welcome, but pump prices
have shown signs of stabilizing recently.

For inflation to continue to fall, categories outside energy need to ease.
Encouragingly, signs indicate this downward trend is still in place. Headline
inflation was up at an annualized pace of 4% over the past three months, but
core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is running at 2.4%. That’s the
slowest pace since March 2021.



A closer look at the data shows disinflation continues in the used vehicle and
housing categories. Used vehicle prices dropped for the third straight month,
falling 1.2%, and this downtrend should continue based on what private data is
showing. On the other hand, new vehicle prices increased 0.3%, the fastest pace
since March. Inventories must rise to prevent further increases, and most signs
point to that happening. Note there is an outside risk that the autoworker
strikes could hamper inventory build-up.

Housing makes up 40% of core inflation, and the August numbers showed the
official data is catching up to private rental data, albeit slowly. Housing
inflation ran at an annualized pace of 8-10% between June 2022 and February
2023. That slowed to a 5.5-7% annual pace between March and July, and it fell
further in August, to 5%. This is still high and is keeping core inflation
elevated. However, housing data is likely to continue its downtrend in the
months ahead, putting further downward pressure on core inflation. Market-based
rental indices from Apartment List show rents are now down 1% over the past
year.



The Federal Reserve is likely to look past the jump in energy prices for now and
the core inflation downtrend. The labor market is also easing, with job openings
falling, quit rates normalizing, and wage growth easing. The unemployment rate
is up to 3.8%. This all signals the Fed will likely pause on rate hikes at its
meeting this week. That will be a welcome break.

At the same time, we do not expect Fed members to even hint that they’re
thinking about cutting rates any time soon, especially since the economy
continues to show strength, as evidenced by relatively strong retail sales and
industrial production data last week. Retail sales have now increased at an
annualized pace of 5% over the past three months, while manufacturing activity
is also showing an uptick despite negative sentiment. Fed members will want to
preserve some optionality in case stronger economic growth results in more
inflationary pressure and they have to raise rates again. We don’t think it will
come to that, mostly because we believe core inflation will continue to ease
even in the face of a relatively strong economy.

 



This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material
is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or
recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and
is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be
invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the
opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or
indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to
volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without
notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their
accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not
guarantee future results.

S&P 500 – A capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure
performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate
market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

The NASDAQ 100 Index is a stock index of the 100 largest companies by market
capitalization traded on NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes
publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major
exception being financial services.

A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a
declining market.

Compliance Case # 01904404_091823_C

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