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DIESEL DOES ABOUT-FACE, DROPS 8.3 CENTS

Feb. 7, 2023
Average U.S. diesel is down to $4.539 per gallon as the federal government
revises 2023 estimates of trucking’s primary fuel to fall to $4.23. EIA predicts
steeper price declines by 2024 on robust refining and cheaper crude.
Scott Achelpohl
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A two-week string of diesel price increases has stopped in its tracks as the
U.S. average for trucking’s main fuel fell 8.3 cents to $4.539 per gallon this
week, according to the newest U.S. Energy Information Administration data.

Averages in all EIA regions of the country also were down for the week of Feb.
6, and the federal data tracker is bullish enough on falling diesel prices that
the agency has revised downward—by 25 cents to $4.23 per gallon—its estimate of
where the U.S. average will fall for all of 2023. EIA also is estimating that
the diesel average will drop further—to $3.70 per gallon—by 2024. Today, the
U.S. average still sits 58.8 cents above the level of a year ago, so it has a
ways to go to reach EIA's newly revised estimates.

Motor club AAA saw declines in diesel prices coming all week, as its national
average dropped every day. AAA tracks the average daily, weekly, and monthly
average prices for all 50 states. The motor club had the diesel average down 5.2
cents to $4.624 per gallon for the week on Feb. 6.



See also: Collaborating for a zero-emission future



According to EIA, diesel was down in all regions. And in two regions, the Gulf
Coast (down 10.2 cents to $4.249 per gallon) and the Midwest (a 9.6-cent drop to
$4.378), the decrease for trucking’s main fuel exceeded the decline in the
national average. Diesel dropped exactly as much as the national average—8.3
cents—to $4.539 on the East Coast, where the fuel also was down in every
subregion critical to trucking. The fuel dropped 4 cents to $5.086 (the only
region above $5 per gallon) on the West Coast, and it was down a fraction of a
penny in the Rocky Mountain region to $4.741 per gallon.



U.S. Energy Information Administration


EIA's U.S. average for gasoline, used by some commercial fleets and widely by
consumers, also fell for the week of Feb. 6. EIA had gas down 4.5 cents to
$3.444 per gallon for the week, or $1.095 below the per-gallon average for
diesel. The price of gas is exactly—to the fraction of a penny—where it sat one
year ago.




EIA REVISES OUTLOOK TO REFLECT LOWER PRICES

Meanwhile, EIA’s revised Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) portends relief this
year and in 2024 after diesel reached multiyear highs in the first half of 2022
that lasted all year. The U.S. diesel average soared to an all-time record of
$5.81 per gallon for the week of June 20, 2022, after rising steadily following
the market shock and energy market instability brought on by the Russian
invasion of Ukraine and the energy-related sanctions against the Russians that
followed.

“These forecast price decreases are based on our expectation of lower demand
growth for diesel and motor gasoline with continued high production of those
products,” according to EIA’s revised STEO, adding that the federal agency
"expects limited growth in global demand for gasoline combined with increased
gas production and rising inventories as a result in the U.S."



See also: Lessons learned on efficiency: Tales from the road



“Additional refinery capacity that came online in late 2022, combined with
additional capacity expansions expected to come online in 2023, also will
contribute to rising supplies of both gasoline and diesel fuel internationally,
further contributing to lower prices globally in 2023 and 2024,” according to
the revised STEO. “We also estimate that U.S. refiners will continue to produce
gasoline, even as prices decrease, to meet higher global demand for diesel
fuel.”



U.S. Energy Information Administration


However, after record refining capacity utilization in 2022, U.S. refiners
expect to lower capacity in the ongoing first quarter this year due to a
heavier-than-usual maintenance season. Refiners operated over 90% capacity for
much of 2022 and delayed maintenance due to the demand for fuel, but they see a
refit-and-repair season capacity below that level, as low as around 85%.



Oil prices also remain an integral part of the diesel and gasoline picture—and
key to price declines in each. West Texas Intermediate crude is staying below
$75 per barrel, while Brent floats around $80—far below the levels of around
$120 per barrel they reached last year.







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