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Cabinet ministers flock to Liberal stronghold ahead of Toronto byelection | CBC
News Loaded
Politics
CABINET MINISTERS FLOCK TO LIBERAL STRONGHOLD AHEAD OF TORONTO BYELECTION
Cabinet ministers are spending a lot of time in a key Toronto riding ahead of a
byelection later this month — part of an attempt by the Liberals to hang on to a
key stronghold as the Conservative Party rides high in the polls.
BYELECTION WILL FEATURE LONGEST-EVER FEDERAL BALLOT, WITH 84 CANDIDATES
Christian Paas-Lang · CBC News · Posted: Jun 10, 2024 10:10 AM PDT | Last
Updated: June 10
Casa Loma in the riding of Toronto-St. Paul's, a traditional Liberal stronghold.
(Patrick Morrell/CBC News)
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Cabinet ministers are spending a lot of time in a key Toronto riding ahead of a
byelection later this month — part of an attempt by the Liberals to hang on to a
party stronghold as the Conservative Party rides high in the polls.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and at least 13 of his ministers have dropped into
Toronto-St. Paul's to campaign on behalf of Liberal candidate Leslie Church, a
former political staffer, ahead of the June 24 vote.
Those ministers include Greater Toronto Area representatives like Chrystia
Freeland and Anita Anand, along with ministers from more far-flung ridings such
as Harjit Sajjan and François-Philippe Champagne.
Toronto-St. Paul's was once considered a bellwether riding but has been a
Liberal stronghold since the 1990s. Former cabinet minister (and current
ambassador to Denmark) Carolyn Bennett held the riding from 1997 to 2024; she
won by roughly eight percentage points in the 2011 election, when the federal
Liberals were relegated to the third party in the House of Commons with just 34
seats.
Don Stewart is challenging the seat for the Conservatives. The NDP has
nominated Amrit Parhar, Christian Cullis is the Green candidate and the People's
Party of Canada candidate is Dennis Wilson.
Polling expert Philippe Fournier of 338Canada told CBC's Power & Politics last
week that despite the Liberals' strong results in 2021 — when Bennett won over
half of the vote — they risk losing the riding in this byelection.
"We should consider this riding as a tossup, with a slight lean to the
Liberals," he said. "Of course there's some uncertainty in the numbers, but we
expect the Liberals to win by a margin of between four and eight points."
Fournier warned that those assumptions depend on the Liberals being able to turn
out their vote, which could be a challenge in a summer byelection campaign. He
said the recent Mississauga-Lakeshore byelection, in which less than 30 per cent
of eligible voters took part, might suggest the likely turnout in Toronto-St.
Paul's.
The Liberals have won all 25 ridings in Toronto in last three general elections.
Fournier said a loss in Toronto-St. Paul's would be significant.
"If they are now not able to hold on to the 416 base, it could spell a lot of
trouble for the leadership of the Liberals and it would be very difficult to see
Mr. Trudeau be able to stay on as leader if they lose Toronto," he said.
WATCH: The growing importance of Toronto-St. Paul's race
WHAT’S AT STAKE FOR THE LIBERALS IN THE UPCOMING TORONTO BYELECTION? I POWER &
POLITICS
12 days ago
Duration 4:29
Voters head to the polls in Toronto-St. Paul's in a federal byelecton, June 24.
338Canada poll aggregator Philippe Fournier breaks down the numbers.
84 CANDIDATES ON THE BALLOT, A FEDERAL RECORD
Beyond the political messages being pushed out by the campaigns, voters in
Toronto-St. Paul's will also have to contend with what Elections Canada has
confirmed is the longest ballot in the history of federal politics.
Elections Canada is using a two-column ballot to accommodate all 84 candidates
contesting the byelection.
The massive candidate list is the result of an organized campaign by the group
Longest Ballot Committee, which organizes candidates to flood elections as a way
of raising awareness about electoral reform.
"Voters in the Toronto-St. Paul's byelection are in for a good chuckle at the
polling booth, and perhaps a moment to reflect on how our democracy and MPs
could be made to better serve all Canadians," said Kieran and Tomas Szuchewycz,
organizers with the group, in a press release.
* Federal byelection called in Liberal stronghold of Toronto-St. Paul's
* Carolyn Bennett to be named ambassador to Denmark, sources say
Glen MacDonald, one of the candidates on the ballot affiliated with Longest
Ballot Committee, told CBC News that the ballot would be "impossible to ignore."
"It's important to understand that it's not just a couple of guys poking around
and having fun with the voting system. This is a serious protest happening," he
said. The aim is to raise awareness and spark a broader national conversation
about electoral reform, he said.
The Toronto-St. Paul's byelection represents the second time MacDonald has been
on a ballot as part of the Longest Ballot campaign. The first occasion was in
Winnipeg South Centre last year, which previously held the record for longest
federal ballot.
MacDonald said he joined the ballot initiative because he realized that "we need
to do something different."
"The issue of electoral reform has been talked about and debated and studied for
decades in Canada, and we're not making any progress," he said.
MacDonald said both the Conservatives and Liberals have been hypocrites
on electoral reform and the way forward is an empowered citizens assembly.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Christian Paas-Lang
Journalist
Christian Paas-Lang covers federal politics for CBC News in Ottawa as an
associate producer with The House and a digital writer with CBC Politics. You
can reach him at christian.paas-lang@cbc.ca.
CBC's Journalistic Standards and Practices|About CBC News
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