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2600:9000:2156:ee00:1f:c18c:c080:93a1
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URL:
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/enso-and-climate-change-what-does-new-ipcc-report-say
Submission: On July 19 via api from US — Scanned from DE
Submission: On July 19 via api from US — Scanned from DE
Form analysis 2 forms found in the DOM
GET /search
<form role="search" action="/search" method="get" class="usa-search usa-search-small inline-form search-form float-none" accept-charset="UTF-8">
<div class="wl_search_cgov_autocomplete_box">
<fieldset>
<legend class="visually-hidden">Search</legend>
<input id="search-field-small" type="search" name="query" placeholder="Search Climate.gov" tabindex="1" autocomplete="off">
<button type="submit"><span class="usa-sr-only">Search</span><svg class="svg-inline--fa fa-magnifying-glass" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" data-prefix="fas" data-icon="magnifying-glass" role="img" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"
viewBox="0 0 512 512" data-fa-i2svg="">
<path fill="currentColor"
d="M416 208c0 45.9-14.9 88.3-40 122.7L502.6 457.4c12.5 12.5 12.5 32.8 0 45.3s-32.8 12.5-45.3 0L330.7 376c-34.4 25.2-76.8 40-122.7 40C93.1 416 0 322.9 0 208S93.1 0 208 0S416 93.1 416 208zM208 352c79.5 0 144-64.5 144-144s-64.5-144-144-144S64 128.5 64 208s64.5 144 144 144z">
</path>
</svg><!-- <i class="fa-solid fa-magnifying-glass"></i> Font Awesome fontawesome.com --></button>
<div class="wl_search_cgov_autocomplete_result wl_search_cgov_autocomplete_result_small"></div>
</fieldset>
</div>
</form>POST /comment/reply/node/838261/comment_node_blog_article
<form class="comment-comment-node-blog-article-form comment-form js-form-type- form-type- usa-form" data-drupal-selector="comment-form" action="/comment/reply/node/838261/comment_node_blog_article" method="post" id="comment-form"
accept-charset="UTF-8">
<div class="js-form-item form-item js-form-type-textfield form-type-textfield js-form-item-name form-item-name">
<label for="edit-name">Your name</label>
<input data-drupal-default-value="Anonymous" data-drupal-selector="edit-name" type="text" id="edit-name" name="name" value="" size="30" maxlength="60" class="form-text form-item form-item__">
</div>
<input autocomplete="off" data-drupal-selector="form-86zq8fjo7ihchyqucpyis6dsku6ensbi3oapv9iejom" type="hidden" name="form_build_id" value="form-86zQ8fjo7iHCHYquCpYis6dsKU6ENSbi3OAPV9IEJOM" class="form-item form-item__"><input
data-drupal-selector="edit-comment-comment-node-blog-article-form" type="hidden" name="form_id" value="comment_comment_node_blog_article_form" class="form-item form-item__">
<div class="field--type-language field--name-langcode field--widget-language-select js-form-wrapper form-wrapper" data-drupal-selector="edit-langcode-wrapper" id="edit-langcode-wrapper">
</div>
<div class="field--type-string field--name-subject field--widget-string-textfield js-form-wrapper form-wrapper" data-drupal-selector="edit-subject-wrapper" id="edit-subject-wrapper">
<div class="js-form-item form-item js-form-type-textfield form-type-textfield js-form-item-subject-0-value form-item-subject-0-value">
<label for="edit-subject-0-value">Subject</label>
<input class="js-text-full text-full form-text form-item form-item__" data-drupal-selector="edit-subject-0-value" type="text" id="edit-subject-0-value" name="subject[0][value]" value="" size="60" maxlength="64" placeholder="">
</div>
</div>
<div class="field--type-text-long field--name-comment-body field--widget-text-textarea js-form-wrapper form-wrapper" data-drupal-selector="edit-comment-body-wrapper" id="edit-comment-body-wrapper">
<div class="js-text-format-wrapper text-format-wrapper js-form-item form-item">
<div class="js-form-item form-item js-form-type-textarea form-type-textarea js-form-item-comment-body-0-value form-item-comment-body-0-value">
<label for="edit-comment-body-0-value" class="js-form-required form-required">Comment</label>
<div class="form-textarea-wrapper">
<textarea class="js-text-full text-full form-textarea required resize-vertical" data-entity_embed-host-entity-langcode="en" data-media-embed-host-entity-langcode="en" data-drupal-selector="edit-comment-body-0-value"
id="edit-comment-body-0-value" name="comment_body[0][value]" rows="5" cols="60" placeholder="" aria-required="true" data-editor-active-text-format="filtered_html" style="visibility: hidden; display: none;"></textarea>
<div id="cke_edit-comment-body-0-value" class="cke_1 cke cke_reset cke_chrome cke_editor_edit-comment-body-0-value cke_ltr cke_browser_webkit" dir="ltr" lang="en" role="application" aria-labelledby="cke_edit-comment-body-0-value_arialbl">
<span id="cke_edit-comment-body-0-value_arialbl" class="cke_voice_label">Rich Text Editor, edit-comment-body-0-value</span>
<div class="cke_inner cke_reset" role="presentation"><span id="cke_1_top" class="cke_top cke_reset_all" role="presentation" style="height: auto; user-select: none;"><span id="cke_9" class="cke_voice_label">Editor toolbars</span><span
id="cke_1_toolbox" class="cke_toolbox" role="group" aria-labelledby="cke_9" onmousedown="return false;"><span id="cke_10" class="cke_toolbar" aria-labelledby="cke_10_label" role="toolbar"><span id="cke_10_label"
class="cke_voice_label">Tools</span><span class="cke_toolbar_start"></span><span class="cke_toolgroup"
role="presentation"><a id="cke_11" class="cke_button cke_button__maximize cke_button_off" href="javascript:void('Maximize')" title="Maximize" tabindex="-1" hidefocus="true" role="button" aria-labelledby="cke_11_label" aria-describedby="cke_11_description" aria-haspopup="false" aria-disabled="false" aria-pressed="false" onkeydown="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(1,event);" onfocus="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(2,event);" onclick="CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(3,this);return false;"><span class="cke_button_icon cke_button__maximize_icon" style="background-image:url('https://www.climate.gov/core/assets/vendor/ckeditor/plugins/icons.png?t=N2MB');background-position:0 -696px;background-size:auto;"> </span><span id="cke_11_label" class="cke_button_label cke_button__maximize_label" aria-hidden="false">Maximize</span><span id="cke_11_description" class="cke_button_label" aria-hidden="false"></span></a><a id="cke_12" class="cke_button cke_button__source cke_button_off" href="javascript:void('Source')" title="Source" tabindex="-1" hidefocus="true" role="button" aria-labelledby="cke_12_label" aria-describedby="cke_12_description" aria-haspopup="false" aria-disabled="false" aria-pressed="false" onkeydown="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(4,event);" onfocus="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(5,event);" onclick="CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(6,this);return false;"><span class="cke_button_icon cke_button__source_icon" style="background-image:url('https://www.climate.gov/core/assets/vendor/ckeditor/plugins/icons.png?t=N2MB');background-position:0 -912px;background-size:auto;"> </span><span id="cke_12_label" class="cke_button_label cke_button__source_label" aria-hidden="false">Source</span><span id="cke_12_description" class="cke_button_label" aria-hidden="false"></span></a><a id="cke_13" class="cke_button cke_button__cut cke_button_disabled " href="javascript:void('Cut')" title="Cut (Ctrl+X)" tabindex="-1" hidefocus="true" role="button" aria-labelledby="cke_13_label" aria-describedby="cke_13_description" aria-haspopup="false" aria-disabled="true" onkeydown="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(7,event);" onfocus="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(8,event);" onclick="CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(9,this);return false;"><span class="cke_button_icon cke_button__cut_icon" style="background-image:url('https://www.climate.gov/core/assets/vendor/ckeditor/plugins/icons.png?t=N2MB');background-position:0 -264px;background-size:auto;"> </span><span id="cke_13_label" class="cke_button_label cke_button__cut_label" aria-hidden="false">Cut</span><span id="cke_13_description" class="cke_button_label" aria-hidden="false"> Keyboard shortcut Ctrl+X</span></a><a id="cke_14" class="cke_button cke_button__copy cke_button_disabled " href="javascript:void('Copy')" title="Copy (Ctrl+C)" tabindex="-1" hidefocus="true" role="button" aria-labelledby="cke_14_label" aria-describedby="cke_14_description" aria-haspopup="false" aria-disabled="true" onkeydown="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(10,event);" onfocus="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(11,event);" onclick="CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(12,this);return false;"><span class="cke_button_icon cke_button__copy_icon" style="background-image:url('https://www.climate.gov/core/assets/vendor/ckeditor/plugins/icons.png?t=N2MB');background-position:0 -216px;background-size:auto;"> </span><span id="cke_14_label" class="cke_button_label cke_button__copy_label" aria-hidden="false">Copy</span><span id="cke_14_description" class="cke_button_label" aria-hidden="false"> Keyboard shortcut Ctrl+C</span></a><a id="cke_15" class="cke_button cke_button__paste cke_button_off" href="javascript:void('Paste')" title="Paste (Ctrl+V)" tabindex="-1" hidefocus="true" role="button" aria-labelledby="cke_15_label" aria-describedby="cke_15_description" aria-haspopup="false" aria-disabled="false" onkeydown="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(13,event);" onfocus="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(14,event);" onclick="CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(15,this);return false;"><span class="cke_button_icon cke_button__paste_icon" style="background-image:url('https://www.climate.gov/core/assets/vendor/ckeditor/plugins/icons.png?t=N2MB');background-position:0 -312px;background-size:auto;"> </span><span id="cke_15_label" class="cke_button_label cke_button__paste_label" aria-hidden="false">Paste</span><span id="cke_15_description" class="cke_button_label" aria-hidden="false"> Keyboard shortcut Ctrl+V</span></a><a id="cke_16" class="cke_button cke_button__pastetext cke_button_off" href="javascript:void('Paste as plain text')" title="Paste as plain text (Ctrl+Shift+V)" tabindex="-1" hidefocus="true" role="button" aria-labelledby="cke_16_label" aria-describedby="cke_16_description" aria-haspopup="false" aria-disabled="false" onkeydown="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(16,event);" onfocus="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(17,event);" onclick="CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(18,this);return false;"><span class="cke_button_icon cke_button__pastetext_icon" style="background-image:url('https://www.climate.gov/core/assets/vendor/ckeditor/plugins/icons.png?t=N2MB');background-position:0 -792px;background-size:auto;"> </span><span id="cke_16_label" class="cke_button_label cke_button__pastetext_label" aria-hidden="false">Paste as plain text</span><span id="cke_16_description" class="cke_button_label" aria-hidden="false"> Keyboard shortcut Ctrl+Shift+V</span></a><a id="cke_17" class="cke_button cke_button__pastefromword cke_button_off" href="javascript:void('Paste from Word')" title="Paste from Word" tabindex="-1" hidefocus="true" role="button" aria-labelledby="cke_17_label" aria-describedby="cke_17_description" aria-haspopup="false" aria-disabled="false" onkeydown="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(19,event);" onfocus="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(20,event);" onclick="CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(21,this);return false;"><span class="cke_button_icon cke_button__pastefromword_icon" style="background-image:url('https://www.climate.gov/core/assets/vendor/ckeditor/plugins/icons.png?t=N2MB');background-position:0 -744px;background-size:auto;"> </span><span id="cke_17_label" class="cke_button_label cke_button__pastefromword_label" aria-hidden="false">Paste from Word</span><span id="cke_17_description" class="cke_button_label" aria-hidden="false"></span></a><a id="cke_18" class="cke_button cke_button__specialchar cke_button_off" href="javascript:void('Insert Special Character')" title="Insert Special Character" tabindex="-1" hidefocus="true" role="button" aria-labelledby="cke_18_label" aria-describedby="cke_18_description" aria-haspopup="false" aria-disabled="false" onkeydown="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(22,event);" onfocus="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(23,event);" onclick="CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(24,this);return false;"><span class="cke_button_icon cke_button__specialchar_icon" style="background-image:url('https://www.climate.gov/core/assets/vendor/ckeditor/plugins/icons.png?t=N2MB');background-position:0 -984px;background-size:auto;"> </span><span id="cke_18_label" class="cke_button_label cke_button__specialchar_label" aria-hidden="false">Insert Special Character</span><span id="cke_18_description" class="cke_button_label" aria-hidden="false"></span></a></span><span
class="cke_toolbar_end"></span></span><span id="cke_19" class="cke_toolbar" aria-labelledby="cke_19_label" role="toolbar"><span id="cke_19_label" class="cke_voice_label">Formatting</span><span
class="cke_toolbar_start"></span><span class="cke_toolgroup"
role="presentation"><a id="cke_20" class="cke_button cke_button__bold cke_button_off" href="javascript:void('Bold')" title="Bold (Ctrl+B)" tabindex="-1" hidefocus="true" role="button" aria-labelledby="cke_20_label" aria-describedby="cke_20_description" aria-haspopup="false" aria-disabled="false" aria-pressed="false" onkeydown="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(25,event);" onfocus="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(26,event);" onclick="CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(27,this);return false;"><span class="cke_button_icon cke_button__bold_icon" style="background-image:url('https://www.climate.gov/core/assets/vendor/ckeditor/plugins/icons.png?t=N2MB');background-position:0 -24px;background-size:auto;"> </span><span id="cke_20_label" class="cke_button_label cke_button__bold_label" aria-hidden="false">Bold</span><span id="cke_20_description" class="cke_button_label" aria-hidden="false"> Keyboard shortcut Ctrl+B</span></a><a id="cke_21" class="cke_button cke_button__italic cke_button_off" href="javascript:void('Italic')" title="Italic (Ctrl+I)" tabindex="-1" hidefocus="true" role="button" aria-labelledby="cke_21_label" aria-describedby="cke_21_description" aria-haspopup="false" aria-disabled="false" aria-pressed="false" onkeydown="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(28,event);" onfocus="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(29,event);" onclick="CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(30,this);return false;"><span class="cke_button_icon cke_button__italic_icon" style="background-image:url('https://www.climate.gov/core/assets/vendor/ckeditor/plugins/icons.png?t=N2MB');background-position:0 -48px;background-size:auto;"> </span><span id="cke_21_label" class="cke_button_label cke_button__italic_label" aria-hidden="false">Italic</span><span id="cke_21_description" class="cke_button_label" aria-hidden="false"> Keyboard shortcut Ctrl+I</span></a><a id="cke_22" class="cke_button cke_button__strike cke_button_off" href="javascript:void('Strikethrough')" title="Strikethrough" tabindex="-1" hidefocus="true" role="button" aria-labelledby="cke_22_label" aria-describedby="cke_22_description" aria-haspopup="false" aria-disabled="false" aria-pressed="false" onkeydown="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(31,event);" onfocus="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(32,event);" onclick="CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(33,this);return false;"><span class="cke_button_icon cke_button__strike_icon" style="background-image:url('https://www.climate.gov/core/assets/vendor/ckeditor/plugins/icons.png?t=N2MB');background-position:0 -72px;background-size:auto;"> </span><span id="cke_22_label" class="cke_button_label cke_button__strike_label" aria-hidden="false">Strikethrough</span><span id="cke_22_description" class="cke_button_label" aria-hidden="false"></span></a><a id="cke_23" class="cke_button cke_button__underline cke_button_off" href="javascript:void('Underline')" title="Underline (Ctrl+U)" tabindex="-1" hidefocus="true" role="button" aria-labelledby="cke_23_label" aria-describedby="cke_23_description" aria-haspopup="false" aria-disabled="false" aria-pressed="false" onkeydown="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(34,event);" onfocus="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(35,event);" onclick="CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(36,this);return false;"><span class="cke_button_icon cke_button__underline_icon" style="background-image:url('https://www.climate.gov/core/assets/vendor/ckeditor/plugins/icons.png?t=N2MB');background-position:0 -144px;background-size:auto;"> </span><span id="cke_23_label" class="cke_button_label cke_button__underline_label" aria-hidden="false">Underline</span><span id="cke_23_description" class="cke_button_label" aria-hidden="false"> Keyboard shortcut Ctrl+U</span></a><a id="cke_24" class="cke_button cke_button__subscript cke_button_off" href="javascript:void('Subscript')" title="Subscript" tabindex="-1" hidefocus="true" role="button" aria-labelledby="cke_24_label" aria-describedby="cke_24_description" aria-haspopup="false" aria-disabled="false" aria-pressed="false" onkeydown="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(37,event);" onfocus="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(38,event);" onclick="CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(39,this);return false;"><span class="cke_button_icon cke_button__subscript_icon" style="background-image:url('https://www.climate.gov/core/assets/vendor/ckeditor/plugins/icons.png?t=N2MB');background-position:0 -96px;background-size:auto;"> </span><span id="cke_24_label" class="cke_button_label cke_button__subscript_label" aria-hidden="false">Subscript</span><span id="cke_24_description" class="cke_button_label" aria-hidden="false"></span></a><a id="cke_25" class="cke_button cke_button__superscript cke_button_off" href="javascript:void('Superscript')" title="Superscript" tabindex="-1" hidefocus="true" role="button" aria-labelledby="cke_25_label" aria-describedby="cke_25_description" aria-haspopup="false" aria-disabled="false" aria-pressed="false" onkeydown="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(40,event);" onfocus="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(41,event);" onclick="CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(42,this);return false;"><span class="cke_button_icon cke_button__superscript_icon" style="background-image:url('https://www.climate.gov/core/assets/vendor/ckeditor/plugins/icons.png?t=N2MB');background-position:0 -120px;background-size:auto;"> </span><span id="cke_25_label" class="cke_button_label cke_button__superscript_label" aria-hidden="false">Superscript</span><span id="cke_25_description" class="cke_button_label" aria-hidden="false"></span></a><a id="cke_26" class="cke_button cke_button__outdent cke_button_disabled " href="javascript:void('Decrease Indent')" title="Decrease Indent" tabindex="-1" hidefocus="true" role="button" aria-labelledby="cke_26_label" aria-describedby="cke_26_description" aria-haspopup="false" aria-disabled="true" onkeydown="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(43,event);" onfocus="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(44,event);" onclick="CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(45,this);return false;"><span class="cke_button_icon cke_button__outdent_icon" style="background-image:url('https://www.climate.gov/core/assets/vendor/ckeditor/plugins/icons.png?t=N2MB');background-position:0 -456px;background-size:auto;"> </span><span id="cke_26_label" class="cke_button_label cke_button__outdent_label" aria-hidden="false">Decrease Indent</span><span id="cke_26_description" class="cke_button_label" aria-hidden="false"></span></a><a id="cke_27" class="cke_button cke_button__indent cke_button_off" href="javascript:void('Increase Indent')" title="Increase Indent" tabindex="-1" hidefocus="true" role="button" aria-labelledby="cke_27_label" aria-describedby="cke_27_description" aria-haspopup="false" aria-disabled="false" onkeydown="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(46,event);" onfocus="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(47,event);" onclick="CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(48,this);return false;"><span class="cke_button_icon cke_button__indent_icon" style="background-image:url('https://www.climate.gov/core/assets/vendor/ckeditor/plugins/icons.png?t=N2MB');background-position:0 -408px;background-size:auto;"> </span><span id="cke_27_label" class="cke_button_label cke_button__indent_label" aria-hidden="false">Increase Indent</span><span id="cke_27_description" class="cke_button_label" aria-hidden="false"></span></a><a id="cke_28" class="cke_button cke_button__removeformat cke_button_off" href="javascript:void('Remove Format')" title="Remove Format" tabindex="-1" hidefocus="true" role="button" aria-labelledby="cke_28_label" aria-describedby="cke_28_description" aria-haspopup="false" aria-disabled="false" onkeydown="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(49,event);" onfocus="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(50,event);" onclick="CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(51,this);return false;"><span class="cke_button_icon cke_button__removeformat_icon" style="background-image:url('https://www.climate.gov/core/assets/vendor/ckeditor/plugins/icons.png?t=N2MB');background-position:0 -816px;background-size:auto;"> </span><span id="cke_28_label" class="cke_button_label cke_button__removeformat_label" aria-hidden="false">Remove Format</span><span id="cke_28_description" class="cke_button_label" aria-hidden="false"></span></a></span><span
class="cke_toolbar_end"></span></span><span id="cke_29" class="cke_toolbar" aria-labelledby="cke_29_label" role="toolbar"><span id="cke_29_label" class="cke_voice_label">Links</span><span class="cke_toolbar_start"></span><span
class="cke_toolgroup"
role="presentation"><a id="cke_30" class="cke_button cke_button__drupallink cke_button_off" href="javascript:void('Link')" title="Link (Ctrl+K)" tabindex="-1" hidefocus="true" role="button" aria-labelledby="cke_30_label" aria-describedby="cke_30_description" aria-haspopup="false" aria-disabled="false" onkeydown="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(52,event);" onfocus="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(53,event);" onclick="CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(54,this);return false;"><span class="cke_button_icon cke_button__drupallink_icon" style="background-image:url('/core/modules/ckeditor/js/plugins/drupallink/icons/drupallink.png?t=rvhfz6');background-position:0 0px;background-size:16px;"> </span><span id="cke_30_label" class="cke_button_label cke_button__drupallink_label" aria-hidden="false">Link</span><span id="cke_30_description" class="cke_button_label" aria-hidden="false"> Keyboard shortcut Ctrl+K</span></a><a id="cke_31" class="cke_button cke_button__drupalunlink cke_button_disabled " href="javascript:void('Unlink')" title="Unlink" tabindex="-1" hidefocus="true" role="button" aria-labelledby="cke_31_label" aria-describedby="cke_31_description" aria-haspopup="false" aria-disabled="true" onkeydown="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(55,event);" onfocus="return CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(56,event);" onclick="CKEDITOR.tools.callFunction(57,this);return false;"><span class="cke_button_icon cke_button__drupalunlink_icon" style="background-image:url('/core/modules/ckeditor/js/plugins/drupallink/icons/drupalunlink.png?t=rvhfz6');background-position:0 0px;background-size:16px;"> </span><span id="cke_31_label" class="cke_button_label cke_button__drupalunlink_label" aria-hidden="false">Unlink</span><span id="cke_31_description" class="cke_button_label" aria-hidden="false"></span></a></span><span
class="cke_toolbar_end"></span></span><span id="cke_32" class="cke_toolbar cke_toolbar_last" aria-labelledby="cke_32_label" role="toolbar"><span id="cke_32_label" class="cke_voice_label">Lists</span><span
class="cke_toolbar_start"></span><span class="cke_toolgroup"
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4. ENSO
ENSO BLOG
A blog mostly about monitoring and forecasting El Niño, La Niña, and their
regional and global impacts...but sometimes about other climate phenomena that
influence seasonal climate.
DISCLAIMER
The ENSO blog is written, edited, and moderated by Michelle L’Heureux (NOAA
Climate Prediction Center), Emily Becker (University of Miami/CIMAS), Nat
Johnson (NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory), Tom DiLiberto (NOAA Office
of Communications), and Rebecca Lindsey (contractor to NOAA Climate Program
Office), with periodic guest contributors.
Ideas and explanations found in these posts should be attributed to the ENSO
blog team, and not to NOAA (the agency) itself. These are blog posts, not
official agency communications; if you quote from these posts or from the
comments section, you should attribute the quoted material to the blogger or
commenter, not to NOAA, CPC, or Climate.gov.
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ENSO
ENSO AND CLIMATE CHANGE: WHAT DOES THE NEW IPCC REPORT SAY?
By Tom Di Liberto
Published September 27, 2021
Comments: 9
Last month, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released their Working
Group 1 report on the Physical Science Basis of Climate Change (1). This huge
report, both in terms of importance and length (the thing is nearly 4000
pages!), covers literally everything you can possibly imagine about Earth’s
climate. Past changes, current observations, future projections of warming are
all in there. So what does this exhaustive summary of climate research have to
say about the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and climate change? Let’s dig
in!
HOW HAS ENSO CHANGED IN THE PAST?
Often when discussing climate change, the conversation stays firmly placed in
discussing future changes. But it’s clear that the climate is changing already.
Before we can jump into what, if any, ENSO changes are expected for the future,
it’s important to look back and see if ENSO is ALREADY changing. And then
determine if THOSE changes are influenced by our insatiable appetite for
emitting greenhouse gases (GHG). So what’s up?
The Oceanic Niño Index, or ONI, from 1950-present. The ONI is the three-month
sea surface temperature anomaly in the Niño3.4 region of the tropical Pacific
Ocean. Red indicates above-average temperatures and blue indicates below-average
temperatures. Climate.gov image using data from NOAA NWS Climate Prediction
Center.
It’s changed!... kinda. (WITH LOTS OF NUANCE!) The amplitude (strength) of ENSO
along with the frequency of high-magnitude events (aka the BIG ones) are higher
since 1950 than from 1850-1950 to as far back at 1400-1950. (2) The IPCC report
also noted that a higher number of El Niño events in the last 20-30 years have
been associated with temperature changes that are stronger in the central
Pacific rather than the east.
But those differences don’t necessarily mean that human-caused climate change is
behind them (there’s that nuance!). The instrumental record and paleoclimate
proxy evidence (coral, tree rings, sediment cores) all show that throughout the
Holocene (the last 11,700 years), ENSO has displayed all sorts of different
patterns and amplitudes. There is no clear evidence that any changes since 1950
in ENSO are all that unusual. Plus, climate model simulations that do not
include rising greenhouse gases produce similarly large variations in ENSO
behavior over long periods of time due solely to the chaotic nature of the
climate system.
The same holds true for the trend in recent years for central Pacific El Niño
events. Both paleoclimate data and climate models indicate that any changes seen
are well within the range of natural variability. That’s just how the earth
works sometimes.
It’s like student scores in weekly pop quizzes in high school before and after
using a study aide. Before, the scores ranged from 0 to 100 with periods of
consistent scores above 90 and other times of consistent 60s (or worse. Hey, it
could be senior year and prom is coming up!). If you were the teacher, you
wouldn’t feel confident that the student “turned a corner” from using that
specific study aide until you saw a long consistent streak of higher scores.
You’d seen scores like that on occasion before, after all. Maybe the flash cards
work. Maybe they don’t. It’s too hard to say.
WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN TO ENSO IN A WARMING WORLD?
First things first, it is virtually certain that ENSO will not only exist in a
warming world, but that it will continue to play a huge role in affecting
earth’s climate patterns (3).
But what can we say about climate change changing ENSO in the future?
Especially, if we can’t say with much confidence if climate change is affecting
ENSO already.
Changes in amplitude of ENSO variability of both (top) sea surface temperatures
and (bottom) precipitation anomalies averaged over Niño3.4 region for 1950–2014
from CMIP6 climate model historical simulations and for 2015–2100 four shared
socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios. Thick lines stand for multi-model mean
and shading is the 5–95% range across CMIP6 models for historical simulation
(grey), SSP1-2.6 (blue) and SSP3-7.0 (pink), respectively. Climate.gov figure
adapted from Figure 4.10 in IPCC AR6 WG1 Physical Science Basis report.
There is no climate model consensus on a change in ENSO-related sea surface
temperature over the next century in any of the greenhouse gas emission
scenarios used in the report. But regardless of any changes in ENSO sea surface
temperatures, in intermediate to very high GHG scenarios, it is very likely that
rainfall variability over the east-central tropical Pacific will increase
significantly (4). Basically, we may expect El Niño to be wetter in this region
and La Niña may be drier.
Importantly, this is NOT saying that the climate models all show no change in
ENSO over the next century in these scenarios. Some of the models certainly do
show change. The issue is that there is no clear consistency not just among
different models, but also among different runs of the same model made with
slightly different initial conditions (ensembles). Some show higher amplitude
ENSO events. Others project lower amplitude events. It’s this wide range of
outcomes that has led to the IPCC’s low confidence in how ENSO could change in a
warming world.
WHY IS THIS ALL SO COMPLICATED?
ENSO is a super-duper complex give and take between the ocean and the
atmosphere. Changes in global surface temperatures…PSHT…that’s easy compared to
ENSO.
ENSO mechanisms showing the complexity of processes involved in ENSO. Dashed
contour shows the location of the strongest positive SST anomaly during El Niño
(the Niño 3 region). NOAA Climate.gov, based on original provided by Eric
Guilyardi.
How is it complex? Seven years ago, I described ENSO as the light in a room
controlled by hundreds of dimmer switches. This is because ENSO is controlled by
multiple feedbacks, which we discussed in this blog post. Climate change is
like a bratty kid who goes into the room and fiddles with each switch, turning
some up and others down. Whether the end result is a brighter room (stronger or
more frequent ENSO) or a darker room (weaker or less frequent ENSO) is hard to
predict.
Even without climate change affecting things, modeling ENSO is hard! With so
many influences, it’s easy for a climate model to get the “right” answer (the
light in the room) for the “wrong” reasons (adjusting different dimmer switches
to get the final “correct” amount of light). Climate models can show a wide
range of potential ENSO outcomes for the future by slightly changing a whole
bunch of “dimmer switches.” It’s hard to say which switches are more “right”
than the others.
A generalized look at how general circulation models can predict different
impacts on ENSO from various mechanisms or processes related to ENSO, yet still
predict the same resulting ENSO amplitude. Occasionally, models can even predict
a different sign for a mechanism (see equatorial ocean dynamics in blue for
model C), and still have the resulting ENSO amplitude be the same. It is
therefore important to verify that models correctly predict the final ENSO
amplitude as well as the correct ENSO mechanisms, or processes. Graphic by Fiona
Martin, based on work by Eric Guilyardi.
And of course, the last complicating thing is just how different ENSO has been
over the long-term past. With such a variable history, it makes it more
difficult to see a climate change specific signal pop out.
ANY NEW RESEARCH SHED ANY LIGHT ON ENSO AND CLIMATE CHANGE?
Yes, and no. Yes in a sense that new research is seemingly released monthly. And
no in a sense that the new research is still often at odds. One week an article
might suggest that ENSO events will get stronger in a warming world. And the
next week a paper comes out and says “Nuh uh, it’ll be weaker”.
If anything, this just gives more credence to the conclusions of the IPCC report
of low confidence in how ENSO, overall, will change. That’s not to say that it
won’t. We just don’t know yet exactly how things will play out.
ANY LAST IPCC WG1 PHYSICAL SCIENCE BASIS REPORT THOUGHTS?
There is no actual new science done in this report. Instead, the scientists who
authored this report were tasked with assessing the state of the science to come
to conclusions about what can be said about climate change and its impact on
everything. It should be expected that some individual scientists might feel
that their research wasn’t given enough credence. But the authors’ goal is to
reflect the research in totality. Believe me, there will be plenty more
research into how ENSO might change due to climate change, so stay tuned!
FOOTNOTES
(1) The report is the first of three reports to be released as part of the sixth
assessment report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The next
two reports to be released in the first half of 2022 will be on adaptation and
mitigation of climate change.
(2) How can scientists reconstruct the state of ENSO back to the 1400s? Through
the use of climate proxies like fossil coral. We’ve covered this topic a couple
of times on the ENSO Blog. First in a guest post by Dr. Kim Cobb and second in a
post by me on volcanos.
(3) The exact phrasing found in the IPCC AR6 WG1 report is that “it is virtually
certain that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will remain the dominant
mode of interannual variability in a warmer world.”
(4) The reason for this is that the average sea surface temperatures are
expected to warm more in the eastern and central tropical Pacific relative to
the rest of the tropics, which makes it easier for an ENSO sea surface
temperature anomaly to induce a rainfall anomaly even if the ENSO sea surface
temperature anomalies do not change.
* Add new comment
COMMENTS
CLIMATE.GOV
Permalink
SUBMITTED BY MICHAEL SCULLIN ON FRI, 2021-09-24 20:50
This is a geat series. It puts complexity into readily understandable articles
which are not too short and not to long. The graphics are great. I have
purloined many of them although I am no longer teaching. Climate (and
population) have everything to do with all history (and prehistory). We are soon
on our way to do more work on understanding the ridged gardens many North
Central Native Americans used for centuries. My wife and I believe all the work
that went into them was to create good soil for growing maize where there was
little to no good soil tp be found in the area. The climate at the western edge
of the Upper Peninsula MI is between lakes Superior and Michigan so it is
possible to grow a good crop in that you have good soil and a moderated climate.
The work of moving tons of soil made it possible to take advantage of the
moderating effects of the lakes.
* Reply
Submitted by rebecca.lindsey on Thu, 09/30/2021 - 09:35
PALEO-ANTHROPOLOGY
Permalink
SUBMITTED BY REBECCA.LINDSEY ON MON, 2021-09-27 15:53
I love paleo-anthropology! At any given time, I have a least a half dozen ideas
for different departments or blogs for Climate.gov, and on my short list would
be a blog devoted to paleoclimate-anthropology. It would cover things like you
mentioned--how ancient people adapted to their climate and landscape--as well as
climate changes that proved to be beyond their ability to adapt, and which
therefore led to collapse.
* Reply
Submitted by rebecca.lindsey on Thu, 09/30/2021 - 09:37
In reply to Climate.gov by rebecca.lindsey
MORE A QUESTION THAN A COMMENT
Permalink
SUBMITTED BY MKT ON TUE, 2021-09-28 10:20
https://twitter.com/NOAAClimate/status/1442851597315313667?s=20 says
“Well, there is no climate model consensus on a change in ENSO-related sea
surface temperature over the next century in any of the scenarios.” Is this a
statement about mean state? Or just variability, amplitude in particular?
* Reply
Submitted by rebecca.lindsey on Thu, 09/30/2021 - 09:38
RE: MORE A QUESTION THAN A COMMENT
Permalink
SUBMITTED BY MICHELLE.LHEUREUX ON TUE, 2021-09-28 11:03
Good question. This is a statement on the variability (standard deviation) in
Nino-3.4 SST, which is shown in Figure 2 above. The IPCC section 4.5.3.2 says:
"There is no consensus on changes in amplitude of ENSO SST variability across
CMIP iterations."
and
"While CMIP6 models show no robust change in ENSO SST amplitude in the mid- and
long-term period across all four SSPs, a robust increase in ENSO rainfall
amplitude is found particularly in SSP2-4.5, SSP3- 7.0, and SSP5-8.5"
Also, in Section 4.4.3.2:
"... detection of robust near-term changes of ENSO SST variability in response
to anthropogenic forcing is difficult to achieve due to pronounced unforced
low-frequency modulations of ENSO."
and
"Analysis of CMIP6 models shows a slight increasing trend in amplitude of
rainfall variability over Niño3.4 region in the near term attributable to mean
moisture increase, regardless of changes in ENSO SST."
* Reply
Submitted by rebecca.lindsey on Thu, 09/30/2021 - 09:38
In reply to More a question than a comment by rebecca.lindsey
SUBMITTED BY TOM.DILIBERTO…
Permalink
SUBMITTED BY TOM.DILIBERTO ON THU, 2021-09-30 11:29
To add onto what Michelle said and to touch on the mean state.
Section 4.5.3.2
"There is no consensus on changes in amplitude of ENSO SST variability across
CMIP iterations. The main factors driving the diversity of ENSO SST amplitude
change in climate models are internal variability, SST mean warming pattern, and
model systematic biases."
"The response of the tropical Pacific mean state to anthropogenic forcing is
characterized by a faster warming on the equator compared to the off-equatorial
region, a faster warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific compared to the
central tropical Pacific (e.g., El Niño-like mean SST warming, see Chapter 7,
Section 40 7.4.4.2), and a weakening of the Walker circulation in most models.
Those models with a El Niño-like warming tend to project a strengthening of ENSO
SST variability whereas models with a La Niña-like warming tend to project a
weakening of variability"
It's important to note that first statement. That the changes in amplitude of
ENSO SST variability are driven by multiple factors.
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter...
* Reply
Submitted by rebecca.lindsey on Mon, 10/11/2021 - 13:52
In reply to More a question than a comment by rebecca.lindsey
IN OTHER WORDS, WHO KNOWS?
Permalink
In other words, who knows?
* Reply
Submitted by Stephen Rich on Thu, 10/14/2021 - 21:08
SORTA
Permalink
From a perspective of confidence on what will happen, yes sorta.
Of course there are scientists in either camp who think based on their research
that there is a signal.
Only one thing is for sure, there will be a lot more research on this topic
* Reply
Submitted by tom.diliberto on Tue, 10/19/2021 - 12:05
In reply to In other words, who knows? by Stephen Rich
LEGAL SIDE
Permalink
I have a question about how legally protected the climate of our planet is. That
is, are there restrictions on all types of pollution. And in the US, are we
guided only by our law...or are there still world agreements?
[This comment has been edited to remove a link. --RL]
* Reply
Submitted by Megan Thompson on Tue, 11/23/2021 - 09:06
GOOD POST
Permalink
Very informative post and the article is very well written. Thank you for the
guide.
* Reply
Submitted by Rahul on Thu, 01/06/2022 - 05:49
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